• 论文 •

### 中国生态足迹和生物承载力构成比例变化分析

陈成忠1, 2,  林振山2

1. 1. 湖北师范学院地理科学系，黄石435002；2. 南京师范大学地理科学学院，南京210046
• 收稿日期:2009-01-09 修回日期:2009-07-16 出版日期:2009-12-25 发布日期:2009-12-25
• 通讯作者: 林振山, 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事地理—气候领域的研究。E-mail: linzhenshan@njnu.edu.cn
• 作者简介:陈成忠 (1970-), 男, 博士, 副教授, 主要从事生态资源研究。E-mail: chenchengzhongbu@163.com
• 基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目 (40871083); 2009年度湖北省自然基金项目

### Dynamic Study of Component Percentages of Per Capita Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity in China, 1995-2015

CHEN Chengzhong1, 2,  LIn Zhenshan2

1. 1. Department of Geography Science, Hubei Normal University, Huangshi 435002, Hubei, China;
2. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
• Received:2009-01-09 Revised:2009-07-16 Online:2009-12-25 Published:2009-12-25
• Supported by:

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40871083; Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province in 2009

Abstract:

Per capita ecological footprint (EF) and biocapcity (BC) by component in China during the period 1995-2006 are calculated based on ecological footprint model. The series prediction models of component percentages of EF or BC are constructed with the modeling technique of statistic-dynamics, i.e., ■ = ar■p■ - be■■c■r■e■. The component percentages of per capita EF and BC in China during the period 1996-2015 are forecasted with the prediction models, and some corresponding policy recommendations are given in this paper. The results show that: (1) The component percentages of cropland, forest, and built-up land footprints decrease in China during the period 1996-2006, and those of grazing land, water area, and energy land increase consistently. The component percentages of cropland and grazing land biocapacities increase, and those of forest, water area, and built-up land decrease. (2) The component percentages of cropland and forest footprints will still decrease in China during the period 2007-2015, and those of grazing land, water area, and energy land will increase. The component percentage of built-up land will increase after it decreases for some consecutive years. The component percentages of cropland, forest, and grazing land biocapacities will increase, and those of water area and built-up land will decrease. (3) The decreasing component percentage of cropland footprint may be related to the reduction of direct demand for grain, and increasing grazing land, and water area to consumption growth for meat, milk, eggs, fish, etc. The decreasing component percentage of forest footprint may be related to the conversion of cropland to forestland. The increasing component percentage of energy land footprint may be related to consistent economic growth, and rapid automobile development. The component percentage of cropland biocapacity will be improved by protecting cropland and developing crop husbandry techniques. The increasing consumption of meat, milk and eggs could promote technology innovation of forage industry, and improve its biocapacity. The increasing component percentage of water area footprint can be regarded as the same as that of forest. The decreasing component percentages of built-up land footprint and biocapacity could come up by controlling the approval of construction projects and investment. The findings suggest that China's policy-makers should attach more importance to improving energy efficiency, reducing meat consumption, sustainably developing sea-fisheries, advancing technology of cropland, and converting some cropland to forestland and pasture land, etc. The purpose of our study is to provide a basis for China's adjustment of industrial structure, land use planning, to improve the ecological environment, and to perfect the assessment index system of sustainable development based on EF analysis method.