地理学报 ›› 2009, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (11): 1331-1341.doi: 10.11821/xb200911005

• 水文 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆水文水资源变化及对区域气候变化的响应

陈亚宁1, 徐长春2, 杨余辉1, 郝兴明1, 沈永平3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院绿洲生态与荒漠环境重点实验室,中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011;
    2. 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046;
    3. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000
  • 收稿日期:2009-06-17 修回日期:2009-08-12 出版日期:2009-11-25 发布日期:2010-04-16
  • 作者简介:陈亚宁(1958-), 男, 研究员, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110004398M), 主要从事干旱区水资源与 地表过程研究。E-mail:chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(90502004; 40671014); 中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-127)

Hydrology and Water Resources Variation and Its Responses to Regional Climate Change in Xinjiang

CHEN Ya-ning1, XU Chang-chun2, YANG Yu-hui1, HAO Xing-ming1, SHEN Yong-ping3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,CAS,Urumqi 830011,China;
    2. School of Resources and Environmental Science,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;
    3. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,CAS,Lanzhou 730000,China
  • Received:2009-06-17 Revised:2009-08-12 Online:2009-11-25 Published:2010-04-16
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.90502004; No.40671014; Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCX2-YW-127

摘要:

基于全疆8 条代表性河流近50 年的地表径流、气温和降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall 趋势检验和突变检测法,对各条河流地表径流、年均气温和年降水进行了长期趋势检验和突变分析,同时对径流与气温、降水之间的变化关系以及水文极端事件洪水的发生频次和洪峰流量进行了分析。结果表明,20 世纪80 年代中期以来全疆各地气候一致表现为气温升高和降水增多,其中北疆地区变化最为显著,南疆其次,东疆最小。受气温、降水变化影响,河流径 流发生年际和年内分布变化。大部分河流自20 世纪90 年代初水量显著增多,有春汛提前、夏汛推后和洪峰流量增大的现象,其变化特征与河流补给类型密切相关。全疆洪水发生频次增多、洪峰流量增大。气候变暖已对区域水文循环产生重要影响。

关键词: 水文水资源, 气候变化,

Abstract:

Based on the surface runoff, temperature and precipitation data over the last 50 years from eight representative rivers in Xinjiang, this paper, using the method of Mann-Kendall trend and jump detection, investigated the long-term trend and jump point of time series of surface runoff, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Besides, this paper analyzed the relationship between runoff and temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and peak flow of floods. Results showed that all parts of Xinjiang had experienced an increase in temperature and precipitation since the mid-1980s. Northern Xinjiang is the area that saw greatest change, followed by southern Xinjiang and eastern Xinjiang. Affected by temperature and precipitation variations, river runoff had both inter-annual and inner-annual changes. The surface runoff of most rivers had increased significantly since the early 1990s. And some of them had the phenomena of spring floods appearing ahead of time, summer floods lagging behind and flood peaks increasing. The variation characteristics were closely related with the replenishment types of rivers. The flood frequency and peak flow increased all over the Xinjiang region. Climate warming has had an effect on the regional hydrological cycle.

Key words: hydrology and water resources, climate change, Xinjian