地理学报 ›› 2009, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (6): 687-692.doi: 10.11821/xb200906005

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国东北农业生产适应气候变化的行为经济学解释

云雅如,  方修琦,  田青   

  1. 北京师范大学环境学院,北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2008-12-03 修回日期:2009-03-23 出版日期:2009-06-25 发布日期:2009-06-25
  • 作者简介:云雅如 (1978-), 女, 在站博士后, 主要从事气候变化的影响与适应性对策研究。E-mail: yaru.yun@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目 (40501026; 40271115); 北京师范大学青年教师社会科学研究基金项目(319107190)

Adaptation of Agricultural Production to Climate Change in Northeast China: A Behavioral Economics Interpretation

YUN Yaru,  FANG Xiuqi,  TIAN Qing   

  1. School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2008-12-03 Revised:2009-03-23 Online:2009-06-25 Published:2009-06-25
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40501026; No.40271115; The Beijing Normal University Youth Teachers Project of Social Sciences, No.319107190

摘要:

利用调查问卷和入户访谈的方法,以中国东北地区11个调查点为研究区,对554户农户进行调查研究,从行为经济学的视角出发,把农业实践者的粮食种植行为作为一种农业经济行为,分析20世纪80年代气候变暖以来,农业实践者在农业种植决策中的行为过程及其与传统经济学理性行为之间的差异。结果显示,在不确定条件下,农业决策行为符合行为经济学的一般规律,在认知偏差和思维定式等因素的影响下,会系统地偏离传统经济学理论,产生非理性行为,从而导致适应与变化之间存在时滞现象:① 受启发式认知偏向的影响,农业实践者在作物种类选择、种植计划制定和粮食出售时间确定等方面均表现为非理性的特点;② 受中国具体国情和农业生产固有特点的影响,出于“保障生活能够继续”的考虑,农业实践者判断“获得”和“损失”的参照点通常很低,对作物品种选择的行为更倾向于保守。

关键词: 行为经济学, 农业决策, 气候变化, 适应, 时滞, 中国东北

Abstract:

Climate change is playing an increasingly important role in the decision making of agricultural production. This paper attempts to bring some insights from behavioral economics into the adaptation of agricultural production to climate change. In this study, crop planting is taken as an individual or domestic economic behavior. We found that behavioral psychology methodology is more applicable for the analysis of the process of agricultural decision making than traditional economy. The research surveyed in this paper covered 554 farmers of 11 counties in Northeast China and the result shows that agricultural production behaviors are consistent with the theories of behavioral psychology in general. The decision making of agricultural production is affected by the cognition biases and modes of thinking. Under the state of uncertainty, agricultural judgment always shows systematic deviation from traditional economy theories, and all of these irrational behaviors cause the time-lag phenomenon between climate change and human adaptation. Two representative factors contribute to the deviation: 1) The farmers' agricultural production behaviors tend to be irrational because of the influence of heuristic bias including representativeness, availability and anchoring. Representativeness bias causes people to be insensitive to prior probability of outcome and sample size in choosing crops species, especially exaggerating the representativeness of small samples. In this case, farmers erroneously decide to plan some more lucrative crops with more thermal demands, even though it is not fit for the local weather condition. The result also shows that affected by availability bias, the local farmers are inclined to assume the weather condition of the coming year will be exactly the same as the current year or will follow the changing trend of recent several years in making the coming year agricultural plans. The plan based on the weather condition assumption is exactly suitable for the reference year while it is uncertain for the actual weather condition. The change of climate will be reflected in the agricultural decision making for the next year. For the agricultural income estimation, farmers are used to forecasting based on the history price, especially the price of the previous year. The selling price will be affected by the supply and demand balance and farmers need to do adjustment within a specific threshold correspondingly. Climate change has significant impacts on the agricultural output and the insufficient adjustment makes it hard for the farmers to sell their products at the peak of price. So the actual farmers' income will also be lower than expected due to the climate change. 2) Affected by the inherent characteristic of local agricultural production, farmers in Northeast China are used to taking conservative behavior in choosing crop strains based on the relatively low reference point.

Key words: behavioral economy, agricultural decision-making, climate change, adaptation, time lag, Northeast China