地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2009, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (5): 592-600.doi: 10.11821/xb200905008

• 寒区旱区研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

近45 年雅鲁藏布江流域极端气候事件趋势分析

游庆龙1,3, 康世昌1,2, 闫宇平4, 徐彦伟1,3, 张拥军1,3, 黄杰1,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京100085;
    2. 中国科学院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000;
    3. 中国科学院研究生院,北京100049;
    4. 国家气候中心,北京100081
  • 收稿日期:2008-12-06 修回日期:2009-03-05 出版日期:2009-05-25 发布日期:2010-08-03
  • 通讯作者: 康世昌(1969-),男,研究员,Email: shichang.kang@itpcas.ac.cn E-mail:shichang.kang@itpcas.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:游庆龙(1980-),男,湖南岳阳人,博士研究生,现从事青藏高原现代气候环境变化研究工作。 E-mail: yqingl@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40771187;40830743);国家科技部“973” 项目(2005CB422004);中国科学院重要 方向项目(KZCX2-YW-145);欧盟第六框架项目(FP6-036952)

Trends in Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin during 1961-2005

YOU Qinglong1,3, KANG Shichang1,2, YAN Yuping4, XU Yanwei1,3, ZHANG Yongjun1,3, HUANG Jie1,3   

  1. 1. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,CAS,Beijing 100085,China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,CAS,Lanzhou 730000,China;
    3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;
    4. National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China
  • Received:2008-12-06 Revised:2009-03-05 Online:2009-05-25 Published:2010-08-03
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.40771187;No.40830743;973 Program,No.2005CB422004;Key Program of CAS, No.KZCX2-YW-145;Project of European Union,No.FP6-036952

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摘要：

利用雅鲁藏布江流域10 个气象台站1961-2005 年逐日最高气温、最低气温和日降水量 资料， 分析了该流域气温和降水等气候极端事件的变化趋势。研究表明： 近45 年以来， 雅鲁 藏布江流域夜间和白天极端低温日数分别以1.94 和0.97 天/10 年的趋势在显著减少， 夜间极 端低温日数减少在冬季最明显， 白天极端低温日数在秋季减少最明显; 夜间极端高温日数和 白天极端高温日数分别以3.03 和1.26 天/10 年的速度显著增加， 夜间极端高温日数增加在夏 季最明显， 白天极端高温日数增加在冬季最明显; 日较差以0.11 oC/10a 的速度在显著减少， 主要发生在冬季; 最大的1 天降水总量和逐年连续无降水天数有减少趋势， 最大的5 天降水 总量、中雨天数、逐年平均降水强度和逐年连续降水天数有增加趋势， 90 年代以来增加趋势 明显， 与该地区经向风与水汽通量增加有关。

关键词: 雅鲁藏布江流域, 极端气候, 趋

Abstract:

Based on daily temperature (maximum and minimum) and daily precipitation at 10 meteorological stations over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin observed by the China Meteorological Administration during the 1961-2005 period, the spatial and temporal variations in climate extremes are analyzed. The results are as follows: Over the 1961-2005 period, the regionally averaged occurrence of extreme cold days and nights has significantly decreased by -0.97 and -1.94 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme warm days and nights has significantly increased by 1.26 and 3.03 days/decade, respectively. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) exhibits a decreasing trend (0.11 oC/decade), especially in winter, coinciding with the fact that there is a greater rise in the minimum temperature than in the maximum temperature. The decrease in the number of cold days mostly occurs in winter and autumn, while the increase in the number of warm nights and days mainly happens in summer and winter. Precipitation indices, due to the large and expected spatial variability, indicate that regionally averaged annual maximum with 1-day precipitation and consecutive dry days have no statistically significant decreasing trends. At the same time, there is no significant increase in regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity, consecutive wet days, number of heavy precipitation days and maximum annual amount for 5-day precipitation.

Key words: Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, extreme climate, tren