地理学报 ›› 2009, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (2): 167-176.doi: 10.11821/xb200902004

• 区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

上海南站对住宅价格影响的时空效应分析

石忆邵1, 郭惠宁2   

  1. 1. 同济大学测量与国土信息工程系, 上海200092;
    2. 中国人民大学土地管理系, 北京100872
  • 收稿日期:2008-03-26 修回日期:2008-10-15 出版日期:2009-02-25 发布日期:2010-08-03
  • 作者简介:石忆邵(1963-), 男, 教授博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员, 主要从事城市与区域发展等方面的研究。E-mail: shiyishao@tongji.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40371034)

Temporal-spatial Impacts of the Shanghai South Railway Station on Housing Prices

SHI Yi-shao1, GUO Hui-ning2   

  1. 1. Department of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;
    2. Department of Land Resources Management, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2008-03-26 Revised:2008-10-15 Online:2009-02-25 Published:2010-08-03
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40371034

摘要:

上海南站综合运输系统的建设促进了该地区经济的快速发展, 也带动了房地产升值。 利用上海南站开通前后9 年的房地产交易数据, 建立多种特征价格修正模型, 并分析模型拟合效果, 选择最适模拟模型。然后, 分4 个时段具体分析了上海南站影响效应的时间变化规律: 在上海南站规划首次公布之前, 这一地区的房价较其他地区低; 从规划公布至正式动工之前, 对周边地区住宅价格的影响并不显著; 在上海南站建设期间, 周边地区住宅已经对其 产生了反应, 由于人们对该地区的良好预期, 楼市出现了价涨量增的局面; 在上海南站建成开通之后, 其影响效应凸显。继而又从不同方向分析了上海南站影响效应的空间分异特征: 上海南站对住宅价格的增值作用平均范围为1.85 km; 分区域来看, 上海南站对沪闵路沿线 住宅价格的影响范围在2.2 km 内; 对上海植物园周边楼盘价格的影响范围在1.45 km 内; 对 沿中环线住宅价格的影响则不明显。

关键词: 上海南站, 住宅价格, 特征价格模型, 时间效应分析, 空间效应分析

Abstract:

The impact of large transport infrastructure on real estate prices has become an interesting theme. But the impact of a large-scale comprehensive transportation system on real estate prices has seldom been studied, and the empirical study of integrating temporal effects with spatial effects is rare too. In the present study, exemplified by the Shanghai South Railway Station, a large-scale comprehensive transportation system, the authors analyze its temporal and spatial impacts on housing prices at different stages and in various directions by means of modified hedonic price models and multi-regression method based on the nine-year long housing transaction data. The results show: (1) the construction of the Shanghai South Railway Station has highly stimulated economic growth in this area, and also leads to the appreciation of residential property values; (2) effects on peripheral housing prices seldom occurrs before its construction; a little reaction on peripheral housing prices during its construction; after its opening, the housing prices obviously fall as the distance increases away from the Shanghai South Railway Station; and (3) the average impact range of the Shanghai South Railway Station on housing prices is within 1.85 km. However, its effects differentiate in different directions. Along the Humin Road, its impact range is within 2.2 km; around the Shanghai Arboretum, its impact range is within 1.45 km, and along the Middle Ring Line, its impact is not marked.

Key words: the Shanghai South Railway Station, housing price, hedonic price model, temporal effect analysis, spatial effect analysis