水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响 —— 基于经验统计模型的评估

doi:10.11821/xb200809006

地理学报 ›› 2008, Vol. 63 ›› Issue (9): 958-968.doi: 10.11821/xb200809006

水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响 —— 基于经验统计模型的评估

李子君¹, 李秀彬²

1. 山东师范大学人口·资源与环境学院, 济南250014;
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101

收稿日期:2007-11-19 修回日期:2008-06-15 出版日期:2008-09-25 发布日期:2008-09-25
作者简介:李子君(1974-), 女, 博士, 讲师, 主要从事土地利用/ 土地覆被变化方面的研究。E-mail: lizj@sdjzu.edu.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院知识创新项目(KZCX2-YW-401-2); 中国科学院知识创新项目(CXIOG-A04-07); 国家自然科学基金项目(40271010)

Impacts of Engineering Measures for Water Conservancy on Annual Runoff in the Chaohe River Basin Based on an Empirical Statistical Model

LI Zijun¹, LI Xiubin²

1. College of Population, Resources and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, China;
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2007-11-19 Revised:2008-06-15 Online:2008-09-25 Published:2008-09-25
Supported by:
Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, No.KZCX2-YW-401-2; Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, No.CXIOG-A04-07; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40271010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用时间序列对比法分析了1961-2005 年潮河流域降水、径流、用水量、水利工程、水土保持措施变化。结果表明: (1) 自20 世纪60 年代以来, 潮河流域年平均面雨量略有减少, 但流域年径流量却呈明显减少趋势, 1991-2000 年的流域年径流量平均值为1961-1970 年的90.9%, 减少幅度较大; (2) 潮河流域径流量的变化主要与水利水保等人类活动有关。利用降水—径流经验统计模型评估了流域水利水保措施对年径流量的影响程度: 1981-1990 年、 1991-2000 年、2001-2005 年、1981-2005 年, 受水利水保措施影响所产生的年均减水量分别为1.15、0.28、1.10、0.79 亿m³, 水利水保措施减水效应分别为31.99%、7.13%、40.71%、 23.79%。水利水保措施对枯水时段的减水效应更为突出。

关键词: 水利水保措施, 年径流量, 降水—径流统计模型, 潮河流域

Abstract:

Time series contrasting method is used to analyze the variation of precipitation, runoff, water consumption, water conservancy projects and soil and water conservation measures of the Chaohe River Basin from 1961 to 2005. The results show: (1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s, the mean annual runoff during 1991-2000 is only 90.9% in proportion to that of the period from 1961 to 1970. (2) The annual runoff variation in the drainage basin is significantly related to human activities such as soil and water conservation and hydraulic projects. The influence degree of engineering measures for water conservancy on runoff reduction is calculated by using the rainfall-runoff statistical model. The results show that during 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2005 and 1981-2005, the average annual runoff reduction amounts are 1.15 ×10⁸, 0.28 ×10⁸, 1.10 ×10⁸ and 0.79 ×10⁸ m³ respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects are 31.99% , 7.13% , 40.71% and 23.79% accordingly. Runoff-reducing effects by engineering measures for water conservancy are more prominent in the low water period.

Key words: engineering measures for water conservancy, annual runoff, rainfall-runoff statistical model, the Chaohe River Basin

李子君,李秀彬. 水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响 —— 基于经验统计模型的评估[J]. 地理学报, 2008, 63(9): 958-968.

LI Zijun1, LI Xiubin2. Impacts of Engineering Measures for Water Conservancy on Annual Runoff in the Chaohe River Basin Based on an Empirical Statistical Model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(9): 958-968.

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水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响 —— 基于经验统计模型的评估

Impacts of Engineering Measures for Water Conservancy on Annual Runoff in the Chaohe River Basin Based on an Empirical Statistical Model

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