地理学报 ›› 2008, Vol. 63 ›› Issue (7): 693-702.doi: 10.11821/xb200807003

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

温室气体排放评价指标及其定量分析

张志强1, 曲建升1,2, 曾静静1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院国家科学图书馆兰州分馆, 中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心, 兰州730000;
    2. 兰州大学教育部西部环境重点实验室, 兰州730000
  • 收稿日期:2007-12-20 修回日期:2008-03-06 出版日期:2008-07-25 发布日期:2010-08-03
  • 作者简介:张志强(1964-), 男, 甘肃定西人, 中科院国家科学图书馆兰州分馆馆长, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事生态 经济学与区域可持续发展、地球科学发展战略研究。E-mail: zhangzq@lzb.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(KZCX2-YW-501);国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC03A11- 05) 资助

A Quantitative Comparison and Analytical Study on the Assessment Indicator s of Greenhouse Gases Emissions

ZHANG Zhiqiang1, QU Jiansheng1,2, ZENG Jingjing1   

  1. 1. Lanzhou Branch Library of National Science Library, Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. MOE Key Laboratory of Western Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2007-12-20 Revised:2008-03-06 Online:2008-07-25 Published:2010-08-03
  • Supported by:

    the Key Project for Knowledge Innovation Program of CAS, No. KZCX2-YW-501; National S&T Pillar Program,No.007BAC03A11-05

摘要:

温室气体排放的科学定量评价是建立国际温室气体减排框架、确定各国合理的减排责任、部署国际减排行动的基础。通过系统阐述目前国际上通行的温室气体排放的主要评价指标(国别排放指标、人均排放指标、GDP 排放指标和国际贸易排放指标等), 并通过定量评价剖析这些评价指标的优缺点及其局限性。讨论了发展科学、公平和易于广泛接受的新评价指 标的可能性。基于可持续发展的公平性原则, 提出了“工业化累积人均排放量” 的新指标, 以客观定量评价世界各国工业化以来温室气体历史累积排放量的当代人均量。新指标的结果显示, 英美等老牌工业化国家的工业化累积人均排放量远高于全球平均水平和发展中国家的 水平。还提出并讨论了人均单位GDP 排放量、消费排放量、生存排放量等潜在的评价指标。

关键词: 全球变暖, 温室气体排放, 工业化累积人均排放量, 人均GDP 排放量

Abstract:

Currently the main assessment indicators for GHG emissions include national indicator, per capita indicator, per GDP indicator, and international trade indicator. Based on the GHG emission data from World Resource Institute (WRI), US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), the results of each indictor are calculated for the world and especially for the eight main industrialized countries of US, UK, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Russia (G8 Nations), and the five major developing countries of China, Brazil, India, South Africa and Mexico, and their merits and demerits are analyzed. It points out that all these indicators have some limitations. The indicator of Industrialized Accumulative Emission per Capita (IAEC) is identified to evaluate the industrialized historical accumulative emission per capita of every country. IAEC indicator is an equitable indicator for GHG emission assessment, which reflects the economic achievement of GHG emission enjoyed by the current generations in every country and their commitments. The analysis of IAEC indicates that the historical accumulative emissions per capita in industrialized countries such as UK and USA were typically higher than those in the world average level and the developing countries. Emission indicator per capita per unit GDP, consumptive emission indicator and survival emission indicator are also put forward and discussed in the paper.

Key words: global warming, greenhouse gases emission, industrialized accumulative emission per capita, emission per capita per unit GDP