地理学报 ›› 2008, Vol. 63 ›› Issue (3): 257-269.doi: 10.11821/xb200803004

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

祁连山区气候变化的区域差异特征及突变分析

贾文雄1,2, 何元庆1, 李宗省1, 庞洪喜1, 院玲玲1, 宁宝英1, 宋波1, 张宁宁1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 兰州730000;
    2. 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州730070
  • 收稿日期:2007-07-16 修回日期:2007-11-18 出版日期:2008-03-25 发布日期:2010-08-04
  • 作者简介:贾文雄(1974-), 男, 甘肃渭源人, 博士研究生, 主要从事冰川水文及气候变化研究.E-mail: wxjiaxy@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重点项目(90511007,90702001); 国家基金委群体项目(40121101); 中国科学院创新群体项 目(CXTD-Z2005-2); 中国科学院重要方向性项目(KZCXZ-YW-317) 资助

The Regional Difference and Catastrophe of Climatic Change in Qilian Mt. Region

JIA Wenxiong1,2, HE Yuanqing1, LI Zongxing1, PANG Hongxi1, YUAN Lingling1, NING Baoying1, SONG Bo1, ZHANG Ningning1   

  1. 1. The State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science, Cold and Arid Region Environment and Engineering Research Institute, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • Received:2007-07-16 Revised:2007-11-18 Online:2008-03-25 Published:2010-08-04
  • Supported by:

    Key Project for National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.90511007, 90702001; The Project for Outstanding Young Scientists of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40121101; The Knowledge Innovation Program of the CAS, No.CXTD-Z2005-2; The Project for Important Directionality Foundation of the CAS, No. KZCXZ-YW-317

摘要:

利用8 个气象站的气温和降水资料, 运用一元回归分析法和5 年趋势滑动, 进行了气候变化的趋势分析, 结果表明: 祁连山区在20 世纪80 年代中后期气温持续升高, 90 年代以 后明显变暖, 其中秋、冬季升温幅度较大; 60 年代降水量最少, 之后逐渐增多, 80 年代达到最多, 90 年代又减少, 2000 年以来又明显增多; 气温变化在空间上表现为南北差异, 以黑河干流为界, 中东部升温幅度从南到北呈增大趋势, 而中西部从南到北呈减小趋势; 降水变化的空间差异也明显, 东部表现为东西差异, 降水量增加幅度从东到西呈减小趋势, 而中、西 部表现为南北差异, 降水量增加幅度从南到北呈减小趋势。在此基础上, 利用滑动T 检验法、Cramer 法、Mann-Kendall 法进行气候突变分析, 结果表明: 祁连山区气温突变比降水突 变明显, 不同方法检验的结果比较一致; 春、夏季气温在1997 年发生突变, 而秋、冬季在 1985 年左右发生突变。

关键词: 年际变化趋势, 气候突变, 祁连山区

Abstract:

Based on climatic data of 8 stations in the Qilian Mt. region, methods of regression analysis and moving average were used to study the climatic changing trend of the study area under the background of global warming. Results showed that the temperature increased after the mid-1980s and climatic warming has accelerated since the 1990s due to the rise of temperature in autumn and winter. The precipitation experienced a changing trend, that is lower (the 1960s)--higher (the 1980s)--lower (the 1990s)--higher (after 2000). The regional difference in temperature rise is, with the main Heihe River as the divide, characterized by the fact that it is increasing from south to north in the middle-eastern Qilian Mt. region while decreasing from south to north in the middle-western. Also the precipitation presents obvious spatial change. The rising range is decreasing from east to west in the eastern Qilian Mt. region, while decreasing from south to north in the western. What's more, methods of T checking, Cramer and Mann-Kendall were employed to analyze climatic break, indicating that the abrupt change of temperature was more noticeable than that of precipitation in the study area. The abrupt change of spring and summer temperature happened in 1997 while that of autumn and winter appeared in 1985. Moreover, the temperature abrupt change in 1987 was more obvious than in 1997 because the scale of temperature rise was higher in autumn and winter than in spring and summer, and the precipitation break in the eastern, middle and western regions happened in 1980, 1972 and 1969, respectively.

Key words: interannual changing trend, abrupt change of climate, Qilian Mt. region