关键词: 省区经济增长分布, 空间相互作用, 分布动态法, 持续性, 流动性, 中国

Abstract:

By using the method of MEDD, from two aspects of shape and mobility, this paper explores the evolution of spatial distribution dynamics of provincial economic growth in China from 1978 to 2004. The research results indicate that the shape of provincial economic spatial distribution has changed from stratification to convergence and then to two peaks state in China. Besides the gap among the economic growth levels of provinces within a convergence club has varied from widening to narrowing again, whereas the gap among the economic level of different convergence clubs has varied from narrowing to widening again, indicating that the economic inequities between the two convergence clubs have continue to expand. After the 1990s the regional economic growth became more energetic. Transition matrices, unconditional and space-conditioned dynamic stochastic kernel and contour plots reveal that spatial interactions influence the spatial distribution of provincial economic growth in the future. The spatial context is a very important factor in affecting the distribution of economic growth. It is very likely that spatial proximity stimulates spatial interaction. The economic growth of a region depends on the performance of its neighboring provinces. Provinces with wealthier neighbors have a greater chance to become prosperous. The spatial spillovers from the economic development of provinces having close geographical positions promote provinces with similar economic level to cluster spatially.

Key words: distribution of provincial economic growth, spatial interactions, MEDD, persistence, mobility, China