地理学报 ›› 2007, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (3): 321-332.doi: 10.11821/xb200703009

• 土地利用 • 上一篇    下一篇

鄱阳湖区洪灾风险与农户脆弱性分析

马定国1,2,3, 刘影3, 陈洁3, 郑林3, 张文江1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京100039;
    3. 江西师范大学地理与环境学院, 南昌330022
  • 收稿日期:2006-08-23 修回日期:2006-12-21 出版日期:2007-03-25 发布日期:2010-08-04
  • 作者简介:马定国(1960-), 男, 副教授, 中国地理学会会员, 主要从事人口地理与区域发展研究。 E-mail: dgm600@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    鄱阳湖生态环境与资源研究教育部重点实验室开放基金项目(PK 2004017); 国家自然科学基金项目 (40561011)

Farmers' Vulner ability to Flooding in the Poyang Lake Region

MA Dingguo1,2,3, 3, 3, LIU Ying3, CHEN Jie1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;
    3. College of Geography & Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
  • Received:2006-08-23 Revised:2006-12-21 Online:2007-03-25 Published:2010-08-04
  • Supported by:

    Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Ecological Environment and Resource Development, No.PK2004017; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40561011

摘要:

运用1:5 万DEM 地形数据对鄱阳湖区洪涝灾害风险区区域范围及空间分布进行了分析。在此基础上, 以乡镇为基本研究单元, 选取乡村人口比重、耕地面积比重为洪灾风险暴露分析指标, 选取单位面积生产总值、农民人均纯收入、第一产业从业人员比重、农业收入占农村经济总收入比重等为农户洪灾应对能力分析指标, 并引入了不同洪水水位特征值的影响系数, 对鄱阳湖区农户洪灾脆弱性程度进行了定量研究。结果表明, 鄱阳湖洪灾风险区面积广、影响深, 农户对洪涝灾害总体上存在着较高的脆弱性; 在所涉及的180 个乡镇中, 农户脆弱度高于平均值的有100 个, 占到乡镇数55.56%。脆弱度最高的乡镇主要集中在滨湖地带及五河干流沿岸地区, 而脆弱度较低的乡镇则主要分布在湖区各县城关镇所在区域。

关键词: 洪涝灾害, 农户, 脆弱性分析, 鄱阳湖区

Abstract:

This paper examines quantitatively farmers' vulnerability to flood in the Poyang Lake Region (PLR) using GIS technique. The spatial unit for this analysis is township. The analysis consists of three major steps. First, the spatial extent and characteristics of flood risk areas were determined using a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from a 1:50,000 topographic map. Second, for each of the township values of six indices reflecting the economic activities of local farmers were computed. These indices are: percentage of rural population, percentage of farmland, GDP per acreage, percentage of employment in the first industry, net income per farmer and percentage of agricultural income. The values of these six indices were then normalized and used for vulnerability assessment. Third, the normalized indices (as GIS data layers) were overlaid with the flood risk areas to obtain the risk coefficient of each township and to calculate the overall vulnerability of each township. The analysis results show that there are large-scale flood risk areas which have a great impact on livelihood of the farmers in the PLR. 55.56% of 180 townships among flood risk areas have a high degree of vulnerability to flood. These townships stand at the lakefront around the Poyang Lake and the alongshore zones at the 'Five Rivers'.

Key words: flooding, farmer, vulnerability analysis, the Poyang Lake Region