中国北方未来干旱化情景下的土地利用变化模拟

doi:10.11821/xb200612007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目前，中国北方未来干旱化过程对土地系统的可能影响还不是十分清楚，这将在一定程度上限制中国北方土地资源的合理开发利用。因此，利用系统动力学 (SD) 的原理和方法，首先构建了中国北方未来干旱化过程影响下的土地利用变化系统动力学模型。进而在不同系统状态下，模拟了中国北方13省未来30年不同干旱化过程和社会经济情景共同影响下的区域土地利用结构变化过程。1989~2001年的模型检验结果表明该SD模型具有一定的可靠性，能在一定程度上理解土地利用系统的复杂变化过程。2000~2030年在干旱化过程转折、不明显和加速3种情景下的情景模拟结果发现，干旱化过程对中国北方未来水资源总量变化影响明显。在干旱化过程3种情景下，北方13省水资源总量从4686.17亿m³下降到3887.88亿m³，水资源正逐渐成为稀缺资源，并成为区域可持续发展的重要制约因素。在中国北方人口增加和经济发展的持续压力下，建筑用地和交通用地在未来增长迅速。城镇，交通等生活型用地与耕地资源之间的矛盾将会十分突出。因此，在未来的发展中，寻求合理的土地利用结构和格局，适应气候变化和社会经济因素的共同压力，将是中国北方区域可持续发展过程中必须面临和解决的问题。

关键词: 水资源约束, 干旱化, 土地利用变化, 仿真模拟, 中国北方

Abstract:

Currently, in northern China, the impact of aridification on land system is not very clear, which would, to some extent, restrict the rational development and utilization of land resources. Therefore, based on the principle and method of system dynamics (SD), a SD model aims at simulating land use changes in northern China under different aridification scenarios and designed socio-economic status is developed in this paper. The accuracy assessment with historic data covering 1989 to 2001 indicates the SD model is helpful and reliable to understand the complex change process of land use system. The aridification scenarios in the next 30 years are defined as three types, from the reversal of aridification, gradual aridification to the acceleration of aridification with the increment of aridification degree. The results suggest that, in northern China, future aridification has great impact on the water resource, leading it to decline from 468.6 to 388.8 million m³ under different aridification scenarios. In other words, water resource is gradually becoming a rare resource restricting regional sustainable development. Furthermore, the results show that, under the pressure of population growth and economic development, the construction and traffic land will expand obviously and the conflict between cultivated land and construction and traffic land will be prominent. In all, in the future development, such issues as how to arrange land use structure and pattern rationally, and how to adapt to the pressures of climate change and socio-economic development together will be the main problems which would be faced and should be solved in the regional sustainable development in northern China.

Key words: restriction to water resource, land use change, dynamics, aridification, scenario simulation, northern China

黄庆旭,史培军,何春阳,李晓兵. 中国北方未来干旱化情景下的土地利用变化模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2006, 61(12): 1299-1310.

HUANG Qingxu, SHI Peijun, HE Chunyang,LI Xiaobing. Modelling Land Use Change Dynamics under Different Aridification Scenarios in Northern China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(12): 1299-1310.

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