地理学报 ›› 2006, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (7): 697-704.doi: 10.11821/xb200607003

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

阿克苏河流域的面雨量序列及其与径流关系

杨青1, 孙除荣2, 史玉光3, 毛纬绎3, 李扬1   

  1. 1. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,乌鲁木齐 830002;
    2. 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081;
    3. 新疆气象局,乌鲁木齐 830002
  • 收稿日期:2006-03-26 修回日期:2006-05-28 出版日期:2006-07-25 发布日期:2010-09-06
  • 作者简介:杨青 (1956-), 男, 研究员, 主要从事气候变化与环境研究。E-mail: yangq@idm.cn
  • 基金资助:

    科技部社会公益研究专项 (2004DIB3J118; 2005DIB6J113); 中国沙漠气象科学研究基金 (SQJ2004003)

Estimation of Areal Precipitation Series and Its Relation to Runoff in Aksu River Basin

YANG Qing1, SUN Churong2, SHI Yuguang3, MAO Weiyi3, LI Yang1   

  1. 1. Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China;
    2. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau, Urumqi 830002, China
  • Received:2006-03-26 Revised:2006-05-28 Online:2006-07-25 Published:2010-09-06
  • Supported by:

    Special Fund for Public Good Project of Ministry of Science and Technology, No.2004DIB3J118; No.2005DIB6J113; China Desert Meteorological Science Research Fund, No. SQJ2004003

摘要:

以数字高程模型 (DEM) 的1km×1km网格数据为基础,对阿克苏河流域14个气象站和水文站的1961~2000年的年降水资料进行了自然正交分解 (EOF),通过回归分析,建立主要特征向量与地理因子的插值模型,给出了一个面雨量序列的计算方法,为建立气候要素的区域平均序列提供了一个有效的解决方案,并由此推算出年阿克苏流域平均年降水量的空间分布以及面雨量序列。径流量与面雨量之比 (R/P) 平均为0.43,最高为0.69 (1997年),最低为0.30 (1963年)。计算出的阿克苏河流域面雨量序列与阿克苏河实测径流量序列的趋势变化率分别为5.79×108 m3/10a和4.29×108 m3/10a,两者均表现出增加趋势,但面雨量的增加速率要比径流量大一些,年际变化幅度也要大,面雨量和径流量的变差系数Cv值分别为0.17和0.13。阿克苏河年径流量的变化与夏季0oC层高度、年面雨量有着十分密切的关系,表明20世纪90年代以来新疆气候的变化是阿克苏河流域径流稳定增加的一个非常重要的因素。

关键词: 面雨量, 径流, 气候变化, 阿克苏河流域

Abstract:

Based on Digital Elevation Model with a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km, the data of annual precipitation obtained from 12 meteorological and 2 hydrological stations (1961-2000) in the Aksu river catchment was filtered using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF). Through regression analysis, an interpolation model between the main characteristic vectors of EOF and geographical parameters was established. The annual areal precipitation was calculated from this model, and it is proved to be an efficient scheme to establish areal mean series of climate element. As a result, the annual areal precipitation and its spatial distribution are calculated on the grids that covered the basin. Point estimates were verified against meteorological or hydrological station data. The ratio (R/P) of the runoff of the Aksu river and calculated areal precipitation is 0.43 on average, the maximum is 0.69 (1997) and the minimum 0.30 (1963). The rates of changing trends of calculated areal precipitation and the observed runoff of Aksu river were 5.79×108 m3/10a and 4.29×108 m3/10a respectively, and both of them presented an increasing trend. The annual changing trend and extent of the areal precipitation are higher than those of the runoff. Both of their coefficients of variation (Cv) are 0.17 and 0.13, respectively. There is a close relationship between the annual runoff and annual areal precipitation and 0oC level height in summer. So the climate change after the 1990s in Xinjiang was the main cause for stable runoff increase in the Aksu river basin.

Key words: areal precipitation, runoff, climate change, Aksu river basin