地理学报 ›› 2005, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (1): 3-11.doi: 10.11821/xb200501001

• 气候变化 •    下一篇

青藏高原近30年气候变化趋势

吴绍洪1,2, 尹云鹤1,3, 郑度1, 杨勤业1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京100085;
    3. 中国科学院研究生院,北京 100039
  • 收稿日期:2004-08-09 修回日期:2004-10-25 出版日期:2005-01-25 发布日期:2010-09-09
  • 作者简介:吴绍洪 (1961-),男,研究员,中国地理学会副秘书长。E-mail: wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目 (40171040);国家自然科学基金重点项目 (40331006)

Climate Changes in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last Three Decades

WU Shaohong1,2, YIN Yunhe1,3, ZHENG Du1, YANG Qinye1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS, Beijing 100085, China;
    3. Graduate School of the Chnese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
  • Received:2004-08-09 Revised:2004-10-25 Online:2005-01-25 Published:2010-09-09
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40171040; Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40331006

摘要:

以1971~2000年青藏高原77个气象台站的观测数据 (最低、最高气温,日照时数,相对湿度,风速和降水量) 为基础,应用1998年FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith模型,并根据我国实际状况对其辐射项进行修正,模拟了青藏高原1971~2000年的最大可能蒸散,并由Vyshotskii模型转换为干燥度,力求说明近30年青藏高原的气候变化趋势,以及干湿状况的空间分布。应用线性回归法计算变化趋势,并用Mann-Kendall方法进行趋势检验。结果表明:青藏高原近30年气候变化的总体特征是气温呈上升趋势,降水呈增加趋势,最大可能蒸散呈降低趋势,大多数地区的干湿状况有由干向湿发展的趋势。气候因子与地表干湿状况间并不是线性关系,存在很大的不确定性。

关键词: 青藏高原, 最大可能蒸散, 气候变化, 干燥度, 变化率

Abstract:

The Tibetan Plateau is one of the best places to study global climate change. Aridity or humidity status of land surface is an important outcome that has close relations with a set of climatic factors such as precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind, but the relationship between them is complicated. This paper calculated potential evapotranspiration by applying Penman-Monteith model which was recommended by FAO in 1998, and aridity index by Vyshotskii model to indicate aridity or humidity status of the Tibetan Plateau during the period 1971-2000. Then it analyzed the changing trends of observed climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and calculated factors (potential evapotranspiration and aridity index), and showed the spatial distribution of aridity/humidity status over the Tibetan Plateau during the period 1971-2000. Trends calculated by linear regression were tested through Mann-Kendall test. Results of 77 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau showed that the main trends of climate change are temperature rise and precipitation increase; potential evapotranspiration decrease and most of the areas was ascending to more humid status. Results suggested that aridity or humidity status cannot be presented only with precipitation.

Key words: Tibetan Plateau, climate change, potential evapotranspiration, aridity index