地理学报 ›› 2004, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (4): 608-614.doi: 10.11821/xb200404015

• 土地利用 • 上一篇    下一篇

绿洲耕地变化趋势及其驱动力——塔里木盆地南部策勒绿洲为例

瓦哈甫·哈力克,海米提·依米提,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,熊黑钢   

  1. 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐 830046
  • 收稿日期:2003-09-29 修回日期:2004-03-17 出版日期:2004-07-25 发布日期:2004-07-25
  • 作者简介:瓦哈甫·哈力克 (1967-), 男, 维吾尔族, 新疆哈密人, 博士, 副教授, 主要研究方向为干旱区绿洲动态与区域可持续发展。Wahap2004@hotmail.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家973项目 (G199904308);国家自然科学基金项目 (49961002; 40261006);新疆大学博士科研启动基金项目

Tendency and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Use Change in Qira Oases: The Case of Qira Oases in South of Tarim Basin

Wahap HALIK, Hamid YIMIT, Tashpulat TEYIP   

  1. College of Resource and Environmental Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
  • Received:2003-09-29 Revised:2004-03-17 Online:2004-07-25 Published:2004-07-25
  • Supported by:

    National 973 Project, G199904308; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.49961002; No.40261006; Doctoral Fund of Xinjiang University

摘要:

以多年的野外实地调查资料和统计资料,分析了塔里木盆地南部策勒绿洲50年以来耕地面积变化的总体趋势、空间差异和驱动因子。基于GPS现场定位,应用GIS进行空间分析,通过建立多元回归模型,最终对该绿洲2010年和2020年的耕地数量进行了初步的预测。分析结果表明社会经济发展动态、农业科技进步和水土资源的限制等3大类因素是影响耕地数量的3个主成分,其结果将为进一步研究整个塔里木盆地南部绿洲耕地变化提供借鉴,为合理利用和保护耕地、为干旱区可持续发展提供科学依据。

关键词: 干旱区绿洲, 驱动因子, 耕地, 多元分析

Abstract:

Based on years of on-the-spot investigated materials and statistical data, this paper analyses the overall tendency, spatial differences and driving forces of the cultivated land change of Qira oases in the south of Tarim Basin. Based on GPS instant positioning, initial prediction of the cultivated land amount of Qira oases in 2010 and 2020 was carried out by means of establishing multiple regression mode and GIS aided spatial analysis. The result shows that dynamic changes of society and economy, improvement of agricultural technology, restrictions of water and land resources are three primary factors influencing cultivated land amount change in the arid area. The authors believe that this study will provide scientific basis for sustainable oasis agricultural development of this region.

Key words: oases of arid area, driving factor, cultivated land, multivariate analysis