中国北方未来土地利用变化情景模拟

doi:10.11821/xb200404014

地理学报 ›› 2004, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (4): 599-607.doi: 10.11821/xb200404014

中国北方未来土地利用变化情景模拟

何春阳,史培军,李景刚,潘耀忠,陈晋

北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875

收稿日期:2004-01-11 修回日期:2004-04-21 出版日期:2004-07-25 发布日期:2004-07-25
作者简介:何春阳 (1975-), 男, 博士, 讲师, 四川射洪人, 主要从事遥感应用与土地利用/覆盖变化研究。E-mail: hcy@irs.bnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (G1999043406-03; G2000018604)

Scenarios simulation land use change in the northern China by system dynamic model

HE Chunyang, SHI Peijun, LI Jinggang, PAN Yaozhong, CHEN Jin

Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University; College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, 100875

Received:2004-01-11 Revised:2004-04-21 Online:2004-07-25 Published:2004-07-25
Supported by:
Major State Basic Research Development Program of China, No.G1999043406-03; No.G2000018604

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用系统动力学 (SD) 的原理和方法，发展了区域土地利用情景变化SD模型。在不同系统状态下，模拟了中国北方13省未来50年不同社会经济情景下的区域土地利用结构变化，并初步评价了这些变化的可能生态影响。1990~2001年的模型结果表明该SD模型具有一定的可靠性，能在一定程度上为当前理解土地利用系统的复杂驱动行为，评估脆弱生态区土地系统变化的潜在生态效应提供帮助。2000~2050年的情景仿真结果表明，经济、人口、市场和技术等因素对中国北方13省未来土地利用变化的影响非常明显。

关键词: 中国北方, 土地利用, 情景模拟

Abstract:

Modeling land use scenarios change and its impact in typical regions are helpful to investigate the interactive mechanism between land use system and terrestrial ecosystem, and optimize land use pattern and reduce potential ecological risk in the process of future land use. A System Dynamic (SD) model aims at modeling land use scenarios change and assessing its ecological impact in the northern China in the next 50 years is developed in this paper. The accuracy assessment with historical data covering 1990 to 2001 indicated the SD model is reliable. After the different "what-if" scenarios controlled by GDP, population, market and technology advancement were built, the different land use scenarios changes in the northern China from 2000 to 2050 were simulated with their ecological impact assessment. The result suggested that such factors as GDP, population, market and technology have good relationship with land use structure change in the northern China. It also indicated that such measures as strictly controlling population growth, importing proper amount of grain from other regions in addition to increasing per unit area grain yield to keep supply-demand balance in the region, and improving agricultural technology are the guarantee to the regional sustainable development with fast economic growth and obvious land use structure improvement at the same time.

Key words: the northern China, land use, scenarios simulation

何春阳,史培军,李景刚,潘耀忠,陈晋. 中国北方未来土地利用变化情景模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2004, 59(4): 599-607.

HE Chunyang, SHI Peijun, LI Jinggang, PAN Yaozhong, CHEN Jin. Scenarios simulation land use change in the northern China by system dynamic model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(4): 599-607.

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中国北方未来土地利用变化情景模拟

Scenarios simulation land use change in the northern China by system dynamic model

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