地理学报 ›› 2004, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (3): 323-330.doi: 10.11821/xb200403001

• 水资源 •    下一篇

黄河干流实际来水量不断减少的成因分析

刘昌明1,2, 张学成3   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学环境学院水科学研究所,北京 100875;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101 ;
    3. 黄河水利委员会水文局,郑州 450004
  • 收稿日期:2004-01-09 修回日期:2004-03-10 出版日期:2004-05-25 发布日期:2004-05-25
  • 作者简介:刘昌明 (1934-), 男, 院士, 主要从事水资源研究。E-mail:liucm@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重点项目 (50239050); 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (G19990436)

Causal Analysis on Actual Water Flow Reduction in the Mainstream of the Yellow River

LIU Changming1,2, ZHANG Xuecheng3   

  1. 1. Institute of Water Science, College of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Bureau of Hydrology, Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450004, China
  • Received:2004-01-09 Revised:2004-03-10 Online:2004-05-25 Published:2004-05-25
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.50239050; Major State Basic Research Development Program of China, No.G19990436

摘要:

20世纪90年代以来,黄河干流实际来水量不断减少,较以往平均来水减少幅度达到了20%~65%不等,黄河下游连年断流。本文基于气候变化 (如降水量变化),人类活动 (如国民经济用水量不断增加),生态环境 (如土地利用的变化) 等方面变化特点;根据黄河干流主要水文站的近50年来观测资料,定量地分析黄河干流实际来水量不断减少的数量及其减少的原因。

关键词: 黄河干流, 实际来水量, 成因分析

Abstract:

In recent 10 years, actual water flow in the mainstream of the Yellow River have been decreasing, ranging from 20% to 65% compared with the previous average inflow. THe cut-off of the lower Yellow River in successive years in the 1990s has attracted the world's attention. According to the previous studies and observational data, this paper analysed quantitatively actual water flow reduction and its root causes in the mainstream of the Yellow River based on the characteristics in climate change (eg. precipitation variation), impact of human activities (eg. constant increase in water use for national economy), and eco-environmental water demand. Results showed that actual water flow reduction was mainly caused by climate change (75%) in the upper Yellow River while it was affected by human activities (57%) in the middle reaches (Hekouzhen-Huayuankou section) especially since the late 1970s.

Key words: mainstream of the Yellow River, actual water flow, causal analysis