中国山区经济发展阶段的理论模型与预测

doi:10.11821/xb200402017

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摘要

中国山区经济发展离不开全国经济发展的宏观背景，同时亦受到区域发展阶段性规律的制约，处于不同发展阶段的区域经济有着明显不同的产业结构特征和经济发展驱动力。在探讨区域发展机理的基础上，提出利用时空等价概念模型预测中国山区经济发展趋势与人均GDP变化特征。以模型定量研究为基础，在中国宏观经济发展的大背景下，分析山区未来5年、10年、20年不同时段的经济增长状况：在2005~2006年中国山区人均GDP达到8000元左右，在2010~2011年达到12000元左右；最后，通过对中国山区发展阶段定位，确定山区经济发展阶段转换的时机，并对转换的条件提出政策性建议。

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关键词 ：区域发展机理；时空等价模型；山区经济发展预测；中国山区

Abstract：

The mountainous economic development depends on the macro-scale backgrounds of the whole country as well as the laws of regional economic developmental stages. In each stage, regional economic development has distinctly industrial structures and economic driving forces. In this paper, based on analysis of regional developmental mechanism, the authors propose a temporal & spatial conception model (T = S model), which reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimension. By using the T = S model, four conclusions have been drawn: First, both the phase and states of mountainous economic development of China in the next 5, 10 and 20 years have been simulated. Second, the authors predict that per capita GDP of mountainous regions will reach 8000 yuan RMB in 2005, and about 12000 yuan RMB in 2010. Third, the shift of mountainous economic development stage was scheduled. Finally, some suggestions concerning policies relative to the shifting conditions were put forward.

Key words： regional developmental mechanism temporal & spatial model analysis of economic development stage mountainous areas of China

收稿日期: 2003-02-07 出版日期: 2010-09-09

基金资助:

中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所知识创新工程项目

作者简介: 陈国阶 (1940-), 男, 研究员, 博导。主要从事环境与区域可持续发展研究。E-mail: chengj@imde.ac.cn

引用本文:

陈国阶,王青. 中国山区经济发展阶段的理论模型与预测[J]. 地理学报, 2004, 59(2): 303-310.
CHEN Guojie, WANG Qing. Theoretical Model and Trend Analysis on Mountainous Economic Development Stages in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(2): 303-310.

链接本文:

http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/10.11821/xb200402017 或 http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/Y2004/V59/I2/303

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