时空序列预测分析方法在华北旱涝预测中的应用

doi:10.11821/xb20037s016

地理学报 ›› 2003, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (7s): 132-137.doi: 10.11821/xb20037s016

时空序列预测分析方法在华北旱涝预测中的应用

王革丽,杨培才

中国科学院大气物理研究所，北京 100029

收稿日期:2003-04-09 修回日期:2003-05-30 出版日期:2003-12-25 发布日期:2003-12-25
作者简介:王革丽 (1970-), 女, 博士。Email: wgl@mail.iap.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (G1999043405)；国家自然科学基金重点项目 (40035010)

The Application of Temporal and Spatial Series Analysis to Flood and Drought Prediction in Northern China

WANG Geli, YANG Peicai

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing 100029, China

Received:2003-04-09 Revised:2003-05-30 Online:2003-12-25 Published:2003-12-25
Supported by:
The Natural Key Project for Basic Research, No.G1999043450; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40035010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

论述场时间序列 (时空序列) 分析问题的提出以及理论基础，并在此基础上，根据状态空间重构理论和嵌入定理，参考单变量时间序列状态空间动力学预报模式，给出场时间序列的动力学预报方法的基本思想和预报思路，并尝试应用于我国华北地区5年、10年和20年尺度旱涝的长期预测试验中。初步的预测结果表明，场时间序列方法对其有一定的预测能力；我国华北地区5年及20年的旱涝等级为正常,近10年的旱涝等级为正常略涝。

关键词: 时间序列, 华北, 旱涝

Abstract:

Methodology and theoretical basis of the spatial-temporal series analysis is discussed in this paper, based on the phase space reconstruction theory and Taken's embedding theory, according to the prediction method of the phase space dynamics reconstruction theory for single variable time series, the dynamics prediction idea and method of the spatial-temporal series analysis is conducted then, which is also used in the long-term prediction of 5-, 10- and 20-year scales of drought and flood in the region of northern China. The preliminary results are as follows: to a certain degree, the method of the spatial-temporal series analysis has the predictable ability, and the dryness and wetness grades for 5- and 20- year scale on northern China are as normal, the dryness and wetness grades for 10-year scale in this region is a little wet above the normal.

Key words: spatial-temporal series analysis, flood and drought, northern China

王革丽,杨培才. 时空序列预测分析方法在华北旱涝预测中的应用[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(7s): 132-137.

WANG Geli, YANG Peicai. The Application of Temporal and Spatial Series Analysis to Flood and Drought Prediction in Northern China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(7s): 132-137.

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时空序列预测分析方法在华北旱涝预测中的应用

The Application of Temporal and Spatial Series Analysis to Flood and Drought Prediction in Northern China

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