地理学报 ›› 2003, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (7s): 1-10.doi: 10.11821/xb20037s001

• 极端事件 •    下一篇

中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化

翟盘茂,潘晓华   

  1. 国家气候中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2003-04-03 修回日期:2003-07-28 出版日期:2003-12-25 发布日期:2010-09-09
  • 作者简介:翟盘茂 (1962-), 男, 江苏宜兴人, 研究员, 研究方向为气候变化、气候诊断, E-mail:pmzhai@cma.gov.cn 潘晓华 George Mason University VA. USA
  • 基金资助:

    科技部“我国干旱、半干旱区生存环境变化与预测研究”(973) 项目 (G1999043405)

Change in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over Northern China During the Second Half of the 20th Century

ZHAI Panmao, PAN Xiaohua   

  1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2003-04-03 Revised:2003-07-28 Online:2003-12-25 Published:2010-09-09
  • Supported by:

    "973" Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology, G1999043405

摘要:

利用中国近50年逐日最高、最低气温和降水资料,计算分析北方极端高温、极端低温和极端强降水事件的频率变化趋势。研究结果表明,中国北方夜间温度极端偏低的日数显著趋于变少;白天温度偏高的日数则趋于增多,只有华北南部例外。同时我国北方日最低气温小于0℃的日数显著减少,这使得我国北方,尤其是东部地区无霜期明显加长。从降水来看,华北地区强降水事件趋于减少,但西北地区强降水事件趋于增多。

关键词: 极端高温, 极端低温, 强降水, 中国北方

Abstract:

Study on change of weather and climate extremes has become an important aspect in modern climate change research. Based on the daily surface air temperature data from 200 stations and daily precipitation data from 739 stations during the second half of the 20th century, schemes for analyzing climate extremes were designed mainly according to percentiles of a non-parametric distribution and the gross errors in the daily data were removed based on a newly designed quality control procedure. The spatial and temporal characteristics of change of climate extremes over northern China were studied. The main conclusions are summarized as follows: 1) The number of days with maximum temperatures over 35oC decreased slightly. The decreasing trends are obvious in the North China Plain and the Hexi Corridor. However, since the 1990s, the extreme hot days increased greatly. Meanwhile, the frost days decreased significantly in northern China, especially in the eastern part of northern China and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Increase trends were found for the 95th percentiles of daily maximum temperatures except in the southern part of North China, while obvious decrease trends were found for the 5th percentiles of daily minimum temperatures. 2) The extreme intense precipitation events obviously increased in much of northwestern China but decreased in the eastern part of northeastern China and most parts of North China. The number of heavy rain days increased in eastern Inner Mongolia and eastern Northeast China, but obviously decreased in the Northeast China Plain and North China.

Key words: intense precipitation, northern China, climate extremes, maximum and minimum temperatures