地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2003, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (5): 721-726.doi: 10.11821/xb200305010

• 气候环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

近50余年来南海西沙海域冬季风强度的变率

彭子成1,2, 陈特固3, 聂宝符3, 刘桂建1, 贺剑峰1, 程继满1   

  1. 1. 中国科学技术大学地球与空间科学学院，合肥 230026；
    2. 中国科学院地球环境研究所，黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室，西安 710054；
    3. 中国科学院南海海洋研究所，广州 510301
  • 收稿日期:2003-01-11 修回日期:2003-04-07 出版日期:2003-09-25 发布日期:2003-09-25
  • 作者简介:彭子成 (1939-), 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事环境地球化学和同位素地球化学领域的教学和研究，自1985年以来合作发表论文147篇。E-mail: pzc@ustc.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G19990434); 国家科技部基础研究重大项目(2001CCB00100); 国家自然科学基金项目(40176031); 中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-SW-118; KZCX3-SW-120)

The Variability of Winter Monsoon Intensity in Xisha Waters, South China Sea for the Last More Than 50 Years

PENG Zicheng1,2, 3, CHEN Tegu3, NIE Baofu1, LIU Guijian1, HE Jianfeng1   

  1. 1. The School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, CAS, Xi'an 710075, China;
    3. South China Sea Institute of Oceanography, CAS, Guangzhou 510301, China
  • Received:2003-01-11 Revised:2003-04-07 Online:2003-09-25 Published:2003-09-25
  • Supported by:

    National Key Project for Basic Research, No.G19990434; Key Project of Ministry of Science and Technology for Basic Research, No.2001CCB00100; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40176031; Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, No.KZCX2-SW-118; No.KZCX3-SW-120

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被引次数

31

摘要：

采用南海西沙永兴岛海洋观察站1958~1997年12~2月实测的北东向冬季风风速的平均值作为冬季风强度指数 (WMI)，与南海北缘滨珊瑚的相应年月份的实测δ18O平均值进行相关分析，得到线性回归方程WMI (m/s) = - 4.913- 2.138δ18O (‰)，r = 0.83, n = 40。在计算(后报) 所得的1944~1997年代际变化序列中，WMI在40~60年代呈下降趋势，70年代略有上升，而80~90年代又呈下降趋势。在年际变化序列中，WMI呈显著的下降趋势，所得线性回归方程为WMI = 79.67-0.0377 Year, r = 0.68, n = 54。由斜率看出，WMI每10年平均下降约0.4 m/s。用Daniell功率谱法分析，近54年来WMI的变化存在2.5~7年的周期，与季风的QBO周期为2~2.4年，以及ENSO活动的3~8年周期密切相关。WMI连续下降的趋势是与全球持续变暖相映，南海海域冬季风强度的变化受到了全球变化的制约。

关键词: 珊瑚, δ18O值, 冬季风, 南海

Abstract:

We have used correlative analysis between 1958-1997 mean December-January- February NE winter monsoon velocities, measured at the Yongxing Island Observatory, as a winter monsoon intensity index (WMI) and mean δ18O data for corresponding months from Porites lutea coral, collected in the northern part of the South China Sea, to obtain a linear equation: WMI (m/s) = -4.913-2.138δ18O (‰), r = 0.83, n = 40. The high correlative coefficient between the above-mentioned two series of WMI and δ18O data is made by using high-pass filtering method. On the basis of the calculated WMI sequence from 1944 to 1977, the interdecadal variability shows that the WMI series decreases in the 1940s-1960s, slightly increases in the 1970s, but decreases again in the 1980s-1990s. The interannual variability reveals that the WMI series decreases obviously from 1944 to 1977 with the correlative equation of WMI (m/s) = 79.69-0.0377 Year, r = 0.68, n = 54. The linear slope is negative, which means that the WMI series decreases by about 0.4 m/s every 10 years. The power-spectral analysis displays that a 54-year WMI series is provided with periodicity of a 2.5-7 year band, which is related to the QBO band of 2-2.4 years and ENSO band of 3-8 years. Therefore, it can be considered that the winter monsoon variability in the South China Sea is also controlled by the global change.

Key words: coral, δ18O values, winter monsoon, South China Sea