近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响

doi:10.11821/xb200304010

地理学报 ›› 2003, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (4): 559-568.doi: 10.11821/xb200304010

近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响

龚道溢¹, 王绍武²

1. 北京师范大学资源科学研究所, 环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室北京 100875;
2. 北京大学大气科学系北京 100871

收稿日期:2002-11-26 修回日期:2003-03-05 出版日期:2003-07-25 发布日期:2003-07-25
作者简介:龚道溢 (1969-), 男, 副教授, 主要从事气候变化及其影响研究, 发表论文70余篇。Email: gdy@irs.bnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目 (40105007) ；教育部优秀青年教师资助计划项目 (EYTP-1964)

Influence of Arctic Oscillation on Winter Climate over China

GONG Daoyi¹, WANG Shaowu²

1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Institute of Resources Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. Department of Atmospheric Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Received:2002-11-26 Revised:2003-03-05 Online:2003-07-25 Published:2003-07-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. NSFC-40105007; the Excellent Young Teachers Program of MOE, No. EYTP-1964

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

北极涛动 (AO) 是北半球冬季热带外行星尺度大气环流最重要的一个模态，对北半球及区域气候有重要影响。利用中国近50年和近百年气温和降水资料分析了北极涛动对我国冬季气候的影响。当AO指数偏强时，我国大部分地区冬季气温偏高，同时降水也偏多。AO和西伯利亚高压对我国冬季气候的影响在年际和年代际尺度上有不同的特征，在年际尺度上西伯利亚高压对我国气温的影响要远强于AO，而AO对我国降水的影响则比西伯利亚高压的影响要显著。这种关系也可以通过比较分析对流层低层和中高层环流形势在AO不同位相时的变化得到进一步验证。这说明AO对我国冬季气温和降水影响的机制是不一样的。在年代际尺度上，AO对气温和降水都有显著的影响。AO和西伯利亚高压一起能解释近百年来我国冬季温度和降水方差的35% 和11%。

关键词: 北极涛动 (AO), 气候, 中国

Abstract:

In this study the relationships between the Arctic Oscillation and climate in China in boreal winter are investigated. The data used in this study include NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis monthly mean sea level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential heights, two Arctic Oscillation indices, and the observed temperature and precipitation. Correlation analysis for the last 41 years shows that the winter temperature and precipitation in China change in phase with AO. High positive correlation between temperature and AO is above +0.4 and appears in the northern China. High correlation coefficients between precipitation and AO cover the southern China (close to the South China Sea) and the central China (between 30^o-40^oN and east of ~100^oE), with the values varying between +0.3 and +0.4. The correlation between the 160-station average temperature and the simultaneous sea level pressure show that the winter temperature of China is strongly connected to the sea level pressure over the high latitudes of Eurasia continent. The center is located in Siberia with values lower than -0.6. The partial correlation between the intensity of Siberian High and averaged temperature in China remains -0.58, when AO keeps constant. But the partial correlation between temperature and AO is only 0.14 when the influence of Siberian High is excluded. The relationship between AO and precipitation is also significant. The partial correlation between AO and mean precipitation of 160 stations is 0.36. But when the AO's influence is excluded, the partial correlation between the intensity of Siberian High and precipitation is only -0.16. This suggests that during the past several decades the precipitation was strongly affected by AO, but for the temperature the Siberian High plays a more important role. AO and the Siberian High correlate at -0.51, according to the data for the period 1958/59-1994/95. The possible dynamical connection between AO and the Siberian High needs further study. Using the long-term series of AO and the Siberian High spanning 1899/1900-1994/1995, their connections to climate in China are analyzed too. At the interdecadal time scale the AO shows significant influence on both temperature and precipitation. Partial correlation between AO and temperature is 0.66. For precipitation the correlation coefficient is 0.70.

Key words: Arctic Oscillation, China, climate

龚道溢,王绍武. 近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(4): 559-568.

GONG Daoyi, WANG Shaowu. Influence of Arctic Oscillation on Winter Climate over China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(4): 559-568.

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近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响

Influence of Arctic Oscillation on Winter Climate over China

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