陆地生物圈动态模式:生态系统模拟的发展趋势

doi:10.11821/xb200204001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

陆地生物圈是一个通过能量、水及各个化学要素与大气及物理气候系统进行交换而相互作用的动态系统。由于生物圈平衡模式有很多局限性,目前迫切需要发展新一代模式—生物圈动态模式,用来在全球变化的背景下评价和预测陆地生物圈初级生产力和生物地球化学循环。陆地生物圈动态模式的目的是模拟自然和人类活动扰动导致的陆地生态系统中的动态变化,以及陆地生物圈与大气之间能量、水和碳循环之间的相互作用。开发生物圈动态模式的关键差距并不在于我们没有构建模式源代码的能力,而在于不能很好地描述经验与构建模式所应用的概念之间的联系,尤其是缺乏构建模式所必需的数据,以及对陆地生态系统复杂机理的认识尚不完整、对如何提高和扩展我们已有的知识以及如何对模式进行验证缺乏了解。数据、模式结构、参数库和预测不确定性之间的相互作用将会推动生物圈动态模式的进步与发展。

关键词: 生物圈动态模式, 生物地球化学, 全球变化, 碳循环, 陆地生态系统

Abstract:

The terrestrial biosphere is a dynamic system that interacts with the atmosphere and climate principally through the exchanges of energy, water and elements. Because of the limitations of equilibrium terrestrial biosphere models, the new generation models - dynamic biosphere models, are critically needed for assessing and predicting the primary production and biogeochemical cycles of the terrestrial biosphere in changing global environments. The goal of dynamic biosphere modeling is to model dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems induced by natural and anthropogenic disturbances, as well as the interactions of energy, water and carbon cycles within the terrestrial biosphere and between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The critical gaps in developing such a terrestrial biosphere model are not our inability to construct model code but instead the poorly developed links between empiricism and the concepts we used to construct our models, especially: a lack of data that would help to make our models mechanistic, an incomplete fundamental knowledge about how complex terrestrial ecosystems work, a poor understanding of how to scale up what we do know and of how to validate such a model. We have watched many models put forth as hypotheses, criticized, and fail to predict--but then over time become more and more useful, more mechanistic, and genuinely predictive.

Key words: biosphere, carbon cycle, ecosystem dynamics, ecosystem model

田汉勤. 陆地生物圈动态模式:生态系统模拟的发展趋势[J]. 地理学报, 2002, 57(4): 379-388.

TIAN Hanqin. Dynamics of the Terrestrial Biosphere in Changing Global Environments: Date, Models, and Validation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(4): 379-388.

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