地理学报 ›› 2000, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (S1): 163-168.doi: 10.11821/xb2000S1024

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国气候异常直接经济损失预测模型

王守荣1, 杨昕1, 达庆利2, 韩勇2   

  1. 1. 国家气候中心,北京100081;
    2. 东南大学经济管理学院,南京210024
  • 收稿日期:2000-07-03 修回日期:2000-09-18 出版日期:2000-12-15 发布日期:2000-12-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家“九五”重中之重科技项目(96-908-03-04)

Predicting Model for Direct Economic Losses Caused by- Climate Abnormality

WANG Shou-rong1, YANG Xin1, DA Qing-li2, HAN Yong 2   

  1. 1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;
    2. Institute of Economic Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 210024
  • Received:2000-07-03 Revised:2000-09-18 Online:2000-12-15 Published:2000-12-15
  • Supported by:
    The key Research Project of National Ninth Five-Year Plan, No.96-908-03-04

摘要: 为加强防灾减灾的预评估,建立了气候异常直接经济损失统计预测模型。模型由时间序列趋势项T(t)、气候异常影响项P(t)和随机波动项S(t)构成,在用统计资料进行模型参数估计的基础上,模拟预测了1989~1999年直接经济损失,模型整体拟合效果良好(R2=0.9847,F=150.45).分别选取不同的SAAO/GDPPI比值,用模型对2000年气候异常直接经济损失进行预测,预测值均比1999年有所增加。模型预测结果显示,增加农业和减灾投入强度SAAO/GDPPI,可以大幅度减少气候异常直接经济损失。

关键词: 气候异常, 直接经济损失, 预测模型, 投入效益比

Abstract: In order to enhance the pre- assessment of disaster reduction, a statistic predicting model is developed for simulating direct economic losses caused by climate abnormality. The model consists of time sequential term T(t), climate abnormality impact term P (t) and random variation term S (t). After parameter adjustment with statistic data, the model is run for the economic simulation losses from 1989 to 1999. The simulated results are quite consistent with the observed ones (R2: 0. 9847, F: 150.45). The economic losses in 2000 are predicted by. using the model with different SAAO/ GDPPI. In terms of the prediction results. the economic losses in 2000 will be higher than the ones in 1999. If the investment ratio of agriculture and disaster reduction, SAAO/ GDPPI, increases, the economic losses caused by climate abnormality would decrease by a wide. margin.

Key words: climate abnormality, direct economic losses, predicting model, cost-benefit analysis

中图分类号: 

  • P429