地理学报 ›› 2000, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (S1): 98-105.doi: 10.11821/xb2000S1015

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候异常对策集成评价模型研究

王守荣   

  1. 国家气候中心,北京100081
  • 收稿日期:2000-07-05 修回日期:2000-10-10 出版日期:2000-12-15 发布日期:2000-12-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家“九五”重中之重项目(96908-03-04)

Integrated Strategy Assessment Model For Climate Abnormally

WANG Shou-rong   

  1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
  • Received:2000-07-05 Revised:2000-10-10 Online:2000-12-15 Published:2000-12-15
  • Supported by:
    The key Research Project of National Ninth Five Year Plan. No.96-908-03-04

摘要: 为提高减少气候异常对国民经济影响对策措施的科学性、有效性和针对性,研究开发了对策集成评价模型。评价模型建立了由社会、经济、生态、环境、技术等方面要素组成的评价指标体系,开发了定量与定性相结合的经济效益、社会生态效果和不确定性分析评价方法,设计了客观评估和专家评判相结合的模糊层次综合评价矩阵,可对各种对策措施的投入一产出效益效果进行科学评估,并根据评价量值对对策措施的优劣作出评判。

关键词: 气候异常, 对策评估, 模型研究

Abstract: In order to adaptate and mitegate the impacts of climate abnormally on socioeconomic development, not only the policy strategies and technical measures should be studied, but also the strategy assessing methologogy should be developed. The integrated strategy assessment model is specially designed for thet purpoes. The model consists of index system, cost -- bent fit analysis, social and ecological effect analysis, uncertainty analysis, expert evaluation and strategy comparison submodel systems. Using both qualitative and quantitative method, the model system can evaluate the imput- output effect and derive specific value for each strategy plan, then give comparison conclusions for vaions strategy plans. After some case studies, the model system has been successfully put into use for assessing water resources and weather modification strategies.

Key words: climate abnormally, strategy assessment, model development.

中图分类号: 

  • P409