地理学报 ›› 2000, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (S1): 26-33.doi: 10.11821/xb2000S1005

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对三峡水库运行风险的影响

张建敏1, 黄朝迎1, 吴金栋2   

  1. 1. 国家气候中心,北京100081;
    2. 中国气象科学研究院,北京100081
  • 收稿日期:2000-07-03 修回日期:2000-09-20 出版日期:2000-12-15 发布日期:2000-12-15
  • 基金资助:
    “九五”国家攻关重中之重科技项目96-908-03-03

Impacts of Climate Chane on Risk in Running of the Three Gorges Reservoir

ZHANG Jian-min1, HUANG Chao-ying1, WU Jin-dong2   

  1. 1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;
    2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
  • Received:2000-07-03 Revised:2000-09-20 Online:2000-12-15 Published:2000-12-15
  • Supported by:
    key project of the National Ninth Five-year Plan, No.96-908-03-03

摘要: 未来气候变化对三峡工程建成后运行的影响研究对于三峡水库的合理调度以及华东、华中航运系统和电网调度等都具有重要的参考价值。以CGCM模拟试验结果为未来气候情景,通过蒙特卡罗试验,随机模拟了三峡地区在未来气候情景下月降水量分布的变化,探讨了三峡工程建成后运行期的气候风险并进行了定量评估。结果表明,在未来气候情景下,三峡水库运行期间,初夏和仲夏受洪涝影响的风险增大,隆冬和冬末由常年气候干旱造成的运行风险虽有减小,但由气候变率变化导致的极端干旱事件将使三峡水库的运行风险增加。

关键词: 气候变化, 三峡工程, 蒙特卡罗试验, 风险

Abstract: Climatic factors are one of the most important elements in deciding the running of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Therefore it is of high value to study the impacts of climate change on the Three Gorges Reservoir for the proper management, the shipping of the Upper Reaches, the flood control of Middle and Lower Reaches of the Chang Jiang River, and the electrical power supplying for Center China and East China. The Monte Carlo experiment is used to analyze the change in monthly precipitation patterns under the climate scenario derived from a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Results indicate that the flood risk in the running will increase in the early and mid summer. Although the drought risk in mid and late winter due to climate average change will be generally lessened, the frequency of extreme drought occurrence will increase as the result of changes in precipitation variability, which will lead to an increase in risk.

Key words: climate change, the Three Gorges Project, Monte Carlo experiment, risk

中图分类号: 

  • P467