地理学报 ›› 1999, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (s1): 152-156.doi: 10.11821/xb1999S1020

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对我国东北国际河流的影响研究

黄国标   

  1. 水利部南京水文水资源研究所,南京210024
  • 收稿日期:1999-01-02 修回日期:1999-04-05 出版日期:1999-12-15 发布日期:1999-12-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金“九五”重点项目(49631020)

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES OF INTERNATIONAL RIVERS IN NORTHEASTERN CHINA

Huang Guobiao   

  1. Nanjing Institute of Hydrology & Water Resources, Nanjing 210024
  • Received:1999-01-02 Revised:1999-04-05 Online:1999-12-15 Published:1999-12-15
  • Supported by:
    Supported by the key Project of the Naitional Natural Science Foundation of China.No.4931020

摘要: 利用流域月径流模型分析气候变化对东北国际河流的定量影响。对黑龙江流域边境地区典型子流域呼玛河和绥芬河流域进行月径流模拟计算。应用建立的径流模型分析了气候变化情景下天然径流的可能响应。计算结果表明,在5种大气环流模式给出的二氧化碳浓度倍增条件(2030年)的气候变化情景下,由于气温、降水的变化,多年平均径流将增加或减少,幅度在-3.72%至+5.81%之间。

关键词: 气候变化, 国际河流, 径流模拟, 融雪过程

Abstract: The impact of climate change on the river runoff of the international rivers in northeastern China was as-sessed by a monthly water balance model. It is found that the snowmelt process is difficult to simulate, but the calibration and validation result was satisfactory and it was applied to evaluate the response of river runoff to the climate change produced by several GCM models (GFDL, GISS, LLNL, MPI and OSU) . The annualrunoff is changed by - 3.72% to 5.82% , and seasonal variation is even greater.

Key words: climate change, international river, runoff simulation, snowmelt process

中图分类号: 

  • X143