地理学报 ›› 1999, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (6): 518-525.doi: 10.11821/xb199906005

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

珠江三角洲海平面上升对堤围防御能力的影响

黄镇国1, 张伟强1, 赖冠文2, 罗少彤2, 范锦春3, 江沛霖3   

  1. 1. 广州地理研究所,广州510070;
    2. 广东省水利水电科学研究所,广州510610;
    3. 珠江水利委员会,广州510611
  • 收稿日期:1998-06-08 修回日期:1999-04-22 出版日期:1999-11-15 发布日期:1999-11-15
  • 基金资助:
    广东省重大科研项目(930816)

The Influence ofSea LevelRising on the Em bankm ents in the Zhujiang Delta

HUANGZhen-guo1, ZHANGWei-qiang1, LAIGuan-w en2, LUO Shan-tong2, FAN Jin-chun3, JIANG Pei-lin3   

  1. 1. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070;
    2. Guangdong Institute of Water Resources and Hydro-Pow er, Guangzhou 510610;
    3. Zhujiang River Waterand Resou rces Commission, Guangzhou 510611
  • Received:1998-06-08 Revised:1999-04-22 Online:1999-11-15 Published:1999-11-15
  • Supported by:
    The Important Project of Guangdong No.930816

摘要: 珠江三角洲2030 年海平面上升幅度约为30 cm .按此,由水力学模型计算了24 个站最高洪潮水位的升幅, 以5 cm 和25 cm 等值线划分出影响很小区、影响较大区、影响最大区。由水文学方程计算了17 个站4 种重现期的最高洪潮水位升幅, 得知现有堤围的防御标准在影响较大区将降低半个等级, 在影响最大区将降低一个半等级。受影响的堤围长度为2 608 km, 维护工作量为1 752×104m3, 需投资21 亿元。

关键词: 珠江三角洲, 海平面, 堤围

Abstract: Itisforecasted thattheam plitude ofsea levelriseforthenext40 years (1990~ 2030) isabout30 cm nearthe Zhujiang Delta. Based on the influence offlood ortide cur- rentthe delta can be divided into three areas, theflood, flood-tidaland tidal. Using a hy- draulicm odelundera typicalcondition ofcatastrophicstorm surge and sm alldischarge oc- curred atSeptem ber1993,therising am plitudesofthehighestflood-tidewaterlevelfor24 hydrom etric stations are calculated respectively, unter the assum ption that the rising is 30 cm . The calculated resultshow s thatthere willbe three influenced areas according to the two isolinesofthe rising am plitude of5 cm and 25 cm . Them axim um rising am plitude Willbe 31 cm in them ostinfluenced area, 25 cm in them edium area and 4 cm only in the uninfluenced area. Itis obvious thatthe influence ofrising 30 cm sea-levelwould be oc- cured m ainly in the tidaland flood-tidalareas. Being influenced by sea levelrise, the frequency ofthe highestflood-tide water level is increased, thatm eans the protection standard ofdyke againstcalam ties is notenough. Using a hydrom etric equation the rising am plitudes of the highist flood-tide w ater level corresponding to fourkindsoffrequencies, ofdischargefor17 stationsarecalculated. The calculated results arein accordancew ith thefrequency ofthehightestflood-tidew aterlev- el. The change ofreappearance periodsofflood-tidew aterlevalare show n in differentar- eas: in flood tide area, the reappearance period decreases by 1/2 class, thatis from 1/50 yrto 1/50~20 yr; in tide area, the decrease is 1.5 or2.0 class, thatis from 1/100 yrto 1/50~20yr. In otherw ords, itisnecessary to raisetheclassofdyke protection standard. There are 104 m u cultivating land orm ore underprotection ofover104 m u totallength of3 057 km dykes, w ithin which, 2 608 km willbeinfluenced by sea levelrise. However the dykesw hich arenotreached the design standard have1 126 km; thatis43% oftheto- tallength. Therefore in order to pledge the protection ofem bankm ents in the future, it should be considered thatnotonly to reach the design standard butalso to raisethedykes to m eetw ith the rise am plitude offlood-tide w aterlevelifsea levelrise 30 cm are real. It is calculated thattheprojectofcubicm etreofsoiland stonefor2 608 km length dykesis1 752×104m3 and the investm entis about21 hundred m illion yuan.

Key words: Zhujiang Delta, sea level, dyke

中图分类号: 

  • P343.5