• 论文 •

### 滑坡灾害评价原理和方法研究

1. 1. 南京大学海岸与海岛开发国家试点实验室,南京210093;云南省地理研究所,昆明650223;
2. 德国美茵茨大学地理系,美茵茨55099
• 收稿日期:1997-07-15 修回日期:1998-05-19 出版日期:1998-12-15 发布日期:1998-12-15
• 作者简介:唐川,男,1961年生.研究员。从事滑坡、泥石流灾害、水文工程地质、地貌学等领域研究工作,已在国内外发表论文}0余篇E-mail:tang@public.km. yn.cn
• 基金资助:

国家自然科学基金资助项目,编号49861001

### THE PRINCIPLES AND METHODOLOGY OF LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Tang Chuan1, JorgGrunert2

1. 1. Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093; Yunnan Institute of Geography, Kunming 650223;
2. Department of Geography, Mainz University, Mainz 55099, Germany
• Received:1997-07-15 Revised:1998-05-19 Online:1998-12-15 Published:1998-12-15
• Supported by:

Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.49861001

Abstract: To satisfy the increasingly urgent demand for prediction of natural disasters, risk assess-ment is one of the fundamental tools for helping the decision-making process. Even though indi-vidual components of landslide hazard can be difficult of access, the availability of geographic in-formation systems helps in proposing pertinent methods for the mapping of such risk. This pa-per describes principles and systematic methodology used to established a GIS capable of identi-fying and quantitatively rating areas of landsliding risk and hazard.The frame for assessment of landslide hazards includes four levels; (1) basic information analysis; (2) assessment of landslide danger; (3) assessment of landslide hazard; (4) assess-ment of landslide risk. The study area is located in the southern urban area of Bonn, Germany. Digital factor maps (compiled from a DEMO, landslide distribution, hydrology and infrastruc-ture (e. g. buildings, roads) were stored in GIS. They are many parameters that are considered to be important to landsliding for the study area. In this study we listed 10 causal factors from the initial set for susceptibility analysis of landslides. The factors were measured at both the landslide sites and the grid intersections, and each was divided into between four and eight class-es to produce a total of 67 attributes. The FS analysis method developed by Masamn Aaniya in 1986 was employed to determine landslide susceptibility. This analysis involves computation of the relative frequency of each attribute in the landslide and grid data, and division of each rela-tive frequency for the landslide data by that for the grid data. The analysis results create seven important factors for hazard-risk assessment. They are slope angle, rock type, distance to fault zone, groundwater table, slope profile form, slope aspect, elevation. Different weights have been assigned to the factors depending on susceptibility analysis. By overlaying land-use infor-mation of the study area to hazard map. landslide risk map was created, which depicts relative risk susceptibility of areas to landslides under existing natural condition and human activities. The results of the case study has also demonstrated how large amounts of disparate information can be effectively integrated and analyzed by GIS to provide an output which delineate landslide risk and hazard classes and produce zonation maps.

• P642.22