地理学报 ›› 1998, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (6): 501-510.doi: 10.11821/xb199806003

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国近40年的粮食灾损评估

郑景云1, 黄金火2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理研究所,北京100101;
    2. 兴化大学地理系,福建351100
  • 收稿日期:1997-07-01 修回日期:1998-01-01 出版日期:1998-11-15 发布日期:1998-11-15
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院KZ951-B1-203-1项目

AN ESTIMATION OF GRAIN LOSS CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTERS IN CHINA, 1950-1990

Zheng Jingyun1, Huang Jinhuo2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101;
    2. Department of Geography, Xinghua University, Putian, Fujian 351100
  • Received:1997-07-01 Revised:1998-01-01 Online:1998-11-15 Published:1998-11-15
  • Supported by:
    Supported by the Project KZ951-B1-203-1 sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences

摘要: 本文根据我国农业生产状况,将全国分为8个农业区,阐述了各区的主要农业灾害。而后根据粮食产量统计资料和粮食灾损量评估模型,估算了近40年各区的粮食灾损量和全国粮食灾损量,并分析了我国粮食灾损量的时空分布状况。

关键词: 自然灾害, 粮食灾损, 评估

Abstract: Grain loss caused by natural disasters in China’s eight agricultural regions during the period 1950~1990 is estimated by the equation:Yd=Yt-1 +(y^p-yt-1 )St+yt(St-St-1 )-Ytwhere Yd is the grain loss due to natural disasters, ytis grain production per ha in yeart, St is planting area in year t, Yt is the amount of production in yeart , and y^pis calculated grain production per ha including y^tand ye as listed respectively in Tables 3 and 7. After the situations of agricultural production, irrigation, agricultural input and natural disasters are discussed, the estimated grain loss for the eight agricultural regions in 1950~1990 is presented. The estimation shows that the average yearly grain loss due to natural disasters is 34 billion kg, or 11 6% of the yield. The time series for the percentage change is given in Figure 2, which shows a decreasing trend since the early 1960s. The regional patterns of the percentages of loss vary. Northeast China has had the most grain loss, followed by North China and then South China.

Key words: grain loss, natural disasters, regional pattern

中图分类号: 

  • S42