地理学报 ›› 1998, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (5): 393-403.doi: 10.11821/xb199805002

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

上海地区海平面上升趋势的预测和研究

李永平, 秦曾灏, 端义宏   

  1. 上海台风研究所,上海200030
  • 收稿日期:1996-10-01 修回日期:1997-03-01 出版日期:1998-09-15 发布日期:1998-09-15
  • 基金资助:
    上海市科学技术发展基金,933912046

AN ESTIMATION AND ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE IN SHANGHAI REGION

Li Yongping, Qin Zenghao, Duan Yihong   

  1. Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shang hai 200030
  • Received:1996-10-01 Revised:1997-03-01 Online:1998-09-15 Published:1998-09-15
  • Supported by:
    Supported by the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Foundation undert heaus pices of project contract No.933912046

摘要: 本文依据上海地区7个验潮站的实测潮位资料,揭示了过去近一个世纪来上海地区海平面上升趋势的历史演变规律,确认了近30年来海平面加速上升的势态,并利用时间序列分析方法建立海平面变化预测模型,由此对上海地区未来50多年的海平面变化趋势作了预测,对预测值的合理性和可靠性作了详尽的评估。结合上海地区未来地面沉降和地壳沉降的预测值,给出了上海地区未来50多年相对海平面上升的预测值,与1990年相比,吴淞口至2010年上升19cm,到2030年上升35cm,到2050年上升52cm.

关键词: 绝对海平面, 相对海平面, 时间序列分析, 长期预测, 上海海平面

Abstract: Utilizing the historical tide records at seven tide-gauge stations in the Shanghai region,the characteristics of the mean annual Eustatic sea level(MAESL)are analyzed.It is shown that the MAESL in the region has been rising in the last 100 years,at the meanliner rate of 0.1 cm/a.The rising rate was especially rapid in the last 30 years.Those findings are consistent with the results obtained by other scientists who have estimated the magnitude of MAESL rise in the North Pacific and the East China Sea.A statistical model fitting the variation of the MAESL is established to estimate the MAESL rise.It is estimated by extrapolation of data that the MAESL will rise above the 1990 level by 4cm,9cm and 18cm in 2010,2030 and 2050,respectively.Our estimates are similar to those suggested by IPCC in 1992 and 1995 and by the academicians of the Department of Geoscience,Academic Sinica in 1994.According to research by the Shanghai Academy of Geotecnical Engineering&Geology in 1994 and the Shanghai Observatory in 1996,the ground subsidence in the Shanghai region due to compaction of sediments will be 10cm,15cm and 18cm,whereas the regional crust will subside by 2cm,4cm and 6cm below the 1990 level by 2010,2030 and 2050,respectively.Accepting these values and using our own estimated rates of MAESL rise,we further estimated that the mean annual relative sea level would rise above the 1990 level by 16cm,28cm and 42cm in the same three years.However,taking a variety of undetermined factors into consideration,the reasonable values of the relative sea level rise for the same years would be between 15cm and 20cm,25cm,35cm,40cm and 50cm,respectively.

Key words: eustatic sea level,relative sea level,time series analysis,future sea level rise,sea level rise in Shanghai

中图分类号: 

  • P731.23