地理学报 ›› 1998, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (3): 202-208.doi: 10.11821/xb199803002

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

农业气象灾害风险分析初探

杜鹏, 李世奎   

  1. 中国气象科学研究院,北京100081
  • 收稿日期:1996-03-01 修回日期:1997-01-01 出版日期:1998-05-15 发布日期:1998-05-15
  • 基金资助:
    农业部农业资源区划司资助

A PRIMARY STUDY ON THE RISK ANALYSIS OFAGRO METEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS

Du Peng, Li Shikui   

  1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
  • Received:1996-03-01 Revised:1997-01-01 Online:1998-05-15 Published:1998-05-15

摘要: 为了从经济效益方面描述农业气象灾害,本文在农业气象灾害风险体系的基础之上定义了风险链以及风险体系两个风险度,并简略地分析了农业气象灾害风险的特点和分析方法,同时还阐明了进行农业气象灾害风险决策与风险管理的基本方法。

关键词: 农业气象灾害, 风险分析, 农业气候资源评价

Abstract: Assessing agro meteorological hazards from risk viewpoint is actually a new approach to assess agro climate resources. Risk degree, a kind of relative index, can not only reflect the influence of agro meteorological hazards on economic benefits, but also provide an effective index for the comparison of different kinds of agro meteorological hazards. In this article, agro meteorological hazard risk is defined as the integration of many negative variations between prospective object and practical outcome under certain agricultural environment and present market conditions. In order to calculate risk degree for a special crop, first of all, its risk system must be established. The risk system includes ordinary events and risk events lined together in time sequence. Each risk event can be developed into a risk chain; then a pragmatic analysis model must be established, based on a crop development model; at last, by the statistical analysis of practical time series of benefit, the risk degrees of each risk chain and the whole risk system can be calculated. The construction of risk assessment model is critical for risk analysis. The author divides the whole process of constructing a risk assessment model into three steps: 1) Constructing Concept Model, it is a framework including value model, hazard model and resisting hazard model; 2) Expansion of Value Model, one crop growing model can be used to describe the change of crop value; 3) Hazard Functions, the impact of hazards is described by using these functions. Meanwhile, some characteristics of agro meteorological hazard risk and basic methods about the agro meteorological hazard risk decision and risk management are discussed, and as an example, the risk degrees of agro meteorological hazards for mango in Zhujiang Delta are also showed in the thesis.

Key words: agro meteorological hazards, risk analysis, assessment of agro climate resources

中图分类号: 

  • S42