地理学报

地理学报 ›› 1996, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (s1): 151-160.doi: 10.11821/xb1996S1016

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可用于气候变化研究的日流量随机模拟方法探讨

邓慧平1, 张翼2, 唐来华3   

  1. 1. 东北师范大学草地研究所,长春130024;
    2. 中国科学院国家计划委员会地理研究所,北京100101;
    3. 东北师范大学图书馆,长春130024
  • 收稿日期:1996-01-01 修回日期:1996-11-01 出版日期:1996-12-15 发布日期:1996-12-15

A DAILY-RUNOFF STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL

Deng Huiping1, Zhang Yi2, Tang Laihua 3   

  1. 1. Institute of Grassland. Northern China Teachers’ University, Changchun 130024;
    2. Institute of Geography Chinese Academy of Scienced Beijing 100101;
    3. Library of Northeast China Teachers’ University Changchu 130024
  • Received:1996-01-01 Revised:1996-11-01 Online:1996-12-15 Published:1996-12-15

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23

摘要： 本文根据水文线性模型现有的研究基础，探讨了可用于气候变化研究的日流量随机模拟方法。又通过分析月流量与日流量的统计关系，提出了按月流量的大小分组，分别建立模拟日流量的随机函数。这样不仅考虑了月流量对季节周期项的影响，也包含了月流量与日时间尺度事件的统计关系。因此，用本文提出的方法包含更多的气候变化对日尺度水文事件影响的信息。

关键词: 气候变化, 随机模拟模型, 水文极端事件

Abstract: For the purpose of evaluating impacts of climatic changes on hydrologic extremes, a stochastic simulationmodel for daily runoff is developed. As a stochastic variable, based on the linear model, daily runoff time series consists of a long-term climatic trend, seasonal cycles, a sequence of daily time scale waves, persistence andrandom fluctuation component. For analysis of effects of monthly average changes on daily scale events, thestatistical relationships between monthly runoff and daily maximum runoff are investigated. The results obviously show that there are statistical relationships between monthly runoff and daily time scale waves. Such statisticalrelationships are taken into account when stochastic functions between the rising range and the rising duration ofdaily scale waves. Thus, this daily stochastic model includes not only the effects of monthly average changes onseasonal cycle but also the effects of monthly average changes on extremes.At last, with this daily-runoff simulation model, a case study of impacts of climatic changes on flood anddrought frequencies is conducted. Results show that flood frequencies will decrease while various drought eventswill in crease.

Key words: climate change, stochastic simulation model, hydrologic extremes

中图分类号: 

  • P467