关键词: 气候变化, 物候, 全球变暖

Abstract: In this paper, effects of global warming on phenological events of China are discussed.First, it is demonstrated that atmospheric temperature is the most important factor influencing plant phenophase: 1. the integral regresseion method is used to analyse the relationship between meteorological factors and phenophase of trees in spring in Beijing. The calculated results show that the relation between meteorological factors and phenophase is close. But the most important factor which influence the phenophase of trees in spring is temperature and their correlation coefficient is more than 0. 7. The sunshine and precipitation are not important factors. If precipitation and sunshine are similar to those in normal years. they may be analysed in three intervals:pre-winter、winter and spring. The effect of spring temperature on phenophase is the most important. At that time. the higher the temperature is. the earlier the phenophase occurs. The temperature effect in pre-winter period is similar to that in spring, but the intensity of the effects is smaller. The low temperature in winter also affects the phenophase in spring. but the higher the temperature in that time. the later the phenophase. It is shown that low temperature in winter is also an essential condition for the phenophases occurs. Secondary. the correlation coefficient between phenophase and annual mean temperature is calculated and the value is higher.Because atmospheric temperature is the most important factor on phenophase. a linear model contains only phenophase and annual mean temperature factors are established by the author. Finally, we apply this model to evaluate changes of the phenological events in China for future global warming scenario. The calculated results are as follows:1. Assuming a 2℃ rise of annual mean temperature. trees phenological events of spring in China will occur about 3-4 days earlier, but may be postponed for 3-4 days in autumn. The greenleaf stage will be prolonged for 6-8 days.2. Assuming the scenario of a doubled CO2 content on the next century which caddses a 1. 0- 1. 8℃ rise in the annual mean temperature in China, phenological events in China will be 4-6 days earlier in spring, but will be postponed 4-6 day in autumn. The green-leaf stage is prolonged for 10-12 days. The mature date of fruits and seeds may be earlier. Moreover. the number of days in the changes of phenological events in the nothern part of China will be more than those in the southern part.

Key words: climate change, phenology, global warming, plant ecology