关键词: 土地沙漠化系统, 动态仿真, 预测

Abstract: A dynamic simulating model of land desertification in the Naiman Banner, Inner Mon-golia was established by means of system dynamic theory. The land desertification system in the Naiman Banner consists of five subsystems, i.e., farming, forestry, animal husbandry, gras-sland and population. According to positive-negative feedback relations in the land desertifica-tion, 75 equations were built and carried out schematic prediction with IBM PC/XT com-puter by using Micro-Dynamo language. With farming, forestry and animal husbandry form-ing three different landuse schemes, the desertification developmental trends in the banner up to 2040 were predicted. Predictions showed that the best landuse structures for farming, for-estry and animal husbandry in the banner will be 15: 23: 62 in 2000; 16: 31: 53 in 2020 and 18: 44: 38 in 2040. Such a dynamic change of landuse structure will effectively control the d}sertification process and gain the best economic and ecological benefits.

Key words: Land desertification system, Dynamic simulating, Prediction