共享社会经济路径下中国碳中和路径预测

doi:10.11821/dlxb202209004

地理学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 77 ›› Issue (9): 2189-2201.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202209004

共享社会经济路径下中国碳中和路径预测

刘泽淼¹(), 黄贤金¹^,²(), 卢学鹤³, 李升峰¹, 漆信贤¹

1.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210023
2.自然资源部碳中和与国土空间优化重点实验室,南京 210023
3.苏州科技大学地理科学与测绘工程学院,苏州 215101

收稿日期:2021-11-10 修回日期:2022-04-29 出版日期:2022-09-25 发布日期:2022-11-25
通讯作者: 黄贤金(1968-), 男, 江苏扬中人, 博士, 教授, 研究方向为土地利用与规划、土地经济与政策、资源环境经济学等。E-mail: hxj369@nju.edu.cn
作者简介:刘泽淼(1997-), 男, 山东青岛人, 博士生, 主要从事碳排放效应模拟研究。E-mail: dz1927005@smail.nju.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(71921003)

China's carbon neutrality path prediction under the shared social economic paths

LIU Zemiao¹(), HUANG Xianjin¹^,²(), LU Xuehe³, LI Shengfeng¹, QI Xinxian¹

1. School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
2. Laboratory of Carbon Neutralization and Territory Space Planning, Nanjing 210023, China
3. School of Geography Science and Geomatics Engineering, Suzhou 215101, Jiangsu, China

Received:2021-11-10 Revised:2022-04-29 Published:2022-09-25 Online:2022-11-25
Supported by:
Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China(71921003)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

科学地预测和分析不同情景下中国碳中和路径有助于碳中和目标的合理推进,但当前研究仍缺少结合碳源—汇变化趋势的综合性分析与应用国际耦合模式情景的系统性分析。本文运用WITCH综合评估模型与IBIS植被动态模型模拟了各共享社会经济路径情景下21世纪中国碳源—汇路径,对中国碳中和时间及路径进行预测分析。研究发现：① 中国碳汇逐年值存在3~4 a的周期性波动。RCP6.0气候情景下中国碳汇总量均值稳定在约0.30 Gt C/a;RCP2.6气候情景下中国碳汇总量均值呈下降趋势,到2065—2100年下降至约0.18 Gt C/a。② 中国碳排放总量受到世界经济社会发展路径与政策强度的共同影响,在中高强度减排政策下中国碳排放均在2025—2030年达峰后呈下降趋势,其中SSP1/SSP4—高强度碳减排政策情景下碳排放在2060年降至约0.30 Gt C/a并实现碳中和目标。③ 基于典型碳中和情景的路径研究,实现碳中和目标应积极促进清洁能源技术进步与应用,推进非电力能源向电力能源转变,推广生物质能源及CCS技术,并积极倡导电动汽车的发展。

关键词: 共享社会经济路径, 碳中和, 碳汇, 碳排放, 中国

Abstract:

Scientifically predicting and analyzing China's carbon neutrality pathways under different scenarios is helpful for the reasonable advancement of carbon neutrality goals, but there has been limited comprehensive analysis that combines carbon emission-sink change trend and a systematic analysis that uses international scenarios for climate change research. Our research simulates China's carbon emission-sink paths in the 21st century under the shared social economic paths, with the usage of WITCH integrated assessment model and IBIS vegetation dynamic model. We also predict and analyze the timetable and paths of China's carbon neutralization. We find that: (1) China's carbon aggregates show that there is a 3-4 year cyclical fluctuation. Under the RCP6.0 climate scenario, China's average carbon sinks are stable at about 0.30 Gt C/a. Under the RCP2.6 climate scenario, the amount shows a downward trend, and it is predicted to drop to about 0.18 Gt C/a in 2065-2100. (2) China's carbon emissions are jointly affected by world's economic and social development path and policy intensity. Under medium or high intensity emission reduction policies, China's carbon emissions will show a downward trend after reaching the peak in 2025-2030, and under SSP1 or SSP4 with high intensity carbon emission reduction policy, carbon emissions will be reduced to about 0.30 Gt C/a in 2060 and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. (3) The research of pathways based on typical carbon neutral scenarios finds that, it is required to actively promote the progress and application of clean energy technology, the transformation of non-electric energy to electric energy, the popularity of biomass energy and CCS technology, and advocate the development of electric vehicles in order to realize carbon neutrality goals.

Key words: shared social economic paths, carbon neutrality, carbon sink, carbon emissions, China

刘泽淼, 黄贤金, 卢学鹤, 李升峰, 漆信贤. 共享社会经济路径下中国碳中和路径预测[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(9): 2189-2201.

LIU Zemiao, HUANG Xianjin, LU Xuehe, LI Shengfeng, QI Xinxian. China's carbon neutrality path prediction under the shared social economic paths[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(9): 2189-2201.

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碳减排政策强度	SSP1	SSP2	SSP3	SSP4	SSP5
无	约4.5	4.5~6.0	4.5~6.0	约4.5	约6.0
中	2.6~3.4	3.4	2.6~3.4	2.6~3.4	3.4~4.5
高	1.9~2.6	2.6	1.9~2.6	1.9~2.6	2.6~3.4

共享社会经济路径下中国碳中和路径预测

China's carbon neutrality path prediction under the shared social economic paths

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情景名称	适应挑战难度	缓解挑战难度	SSPs情景下中国发展路径
SSP1	低	低	迅速的技术变革、经济全球化促进了经济发展与低碳能源技术发展,具有能源强度低、环保意识强与可再生能源大规模应用的特点。
SSP2	中	中	遵循当前经济社会与技术发展趋势路径,内外部条件均偏向折中。
SSP3	高	高	缓慢的技术进步、经济逆全球化阻碍了经济发展与低碳能源技术发展,具有能源强度高、传统能源淘汰速度慢的特点。
SSP4	高	低	较快的技术变革与经济逆全球化使经济发展速度中等,低碳能源技术发展与应用仍然较快但不及SSP1情景。
SSP5	低	高	在经济全球化与人力资本高投资的驱动下经济快速发展,但低碳能源发展速度缓慢,具有能源强度高、传统能源持续大规模应用的特点。

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