地理学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 77 ›› Issue (6): 1446-1460.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202206010

• 区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

互联网对中国城市内部就业分布的动态影响

吴思栩1,2,3,4(), 孙斌栋1,2,3,4(), 张婷麟1,2,3,4   

  1. 1.华东师范大学中国行政区划研究中心,上海200241
    2.崇明生态研究院,上海 202162
    3.华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海 200241
    4.华东师范大学未来城市实验室,上海 200241
  • 收稿日期:2021-03-03 修回日期:2022-01-06 出版日期:2022-06-25 发布日期:2022-08-19
  • 通讯作者: 孙斌栋(1970-), 男, 河北阜平人, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 研究方向为城市地理与经济地理。E-mail: bdsun@re.ecnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:吴思栩(1996-), 女, 湖北黄冈人, 博士生, 研究方向为数字经济与城市发展。E-mail: wusixuecnu@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA068);国家自然科学基金项目(42001183);国家自然科学基金项目(41901184);国家自然科学基金项目(42071210);中国博士后科学基金项目(2020M671044);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(YBNLTS2022-001)

The dynamic impact of the Internet on intra-urban employment distribution in Chinese cities

WU Sixu1,2,3,4(), SUN Bindong1,2,3,4(), ZHANG Tinglin1,2,3,4   

  1. 1. Research Center for China Administrative Division, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    2. Institute of Eco-Chongming, Shanghai 202162, China
    3. School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    4. Future City Lab, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • Received:2021-03-03 Revised:2022-01-06 Published:2022-06-25 Online:2022-08-19
  • Supported by:
    Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China(17ZDA068);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42001183);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41901184);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42071210);China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2020M671044);Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(YBNLTS2022-001)

摘要:

本文旨在揭示互联网影响城市内部就业分布的净效应及其动态变化。首先,将互联网分散力与集聚力的相对变化纳入互联网动态影响的分析框架并提出相应理论假说;其次,利用中国2004年、2008年、2013年3次经济普查中289个地级市的2247万个企业的微观数据,以“邮区”为基本空间单元构建了城市内部就业集聚指数;最后,构造工具变量以缓解内生性问题。结果显示,平均而言,互联网能显著促进城市内部的就业集聚,但随互联网渗透率的提高,其促进作用呈现“边际递减”趋势,而城市就业的空间多中心性不断提升,即就业向远离城市主中心的次中心集聚;对于高发展水平的城市,互联网渗透率的提高促进了就业先短暂分散,而后“边际递增”式集聚。本文研究发现对于预判未来城市中经济活动的空间分布和指导空间规划具有重要意义。

关键词: 互联网, 分散, 集聚, 城市内部就业分布, 动态影响, 中国

Abstract:

This paper aims to reveal the net effect and its dynamic changes of the Internet on intra-urban employment distribution. Firstly, we incorporate the relative changes of the Internet's dispersion and agglomeration force into the analytical framework of the dynamic impact of the Internet on intra-urban employment distribution, and propose corresponding theoretical hypothesis. Secondly, we use the micro-data of 22.47 million enterprises in 289 prefecture-level cities in China's Economic Census in 2004, 2008 and 2013, and take postal districts as the basic spatial unit to construct the employment agglomeration index. To alleviate endogeneity, we construct instrumental variables with the "8-horizontal and 8-longitudinal" optical cable trunk network and the functional form of the exogenous logistic curve, and re-estimate the results. The results show that, on average, the Internet can significantly promote intra-urban employment agglomeration, but with the increase of Internet penetration rate, its promotion effect is characterized as "marginal diminishing", while the spatial multi-centricity of urban employment continues to increase. For cities with a high economic development level, the increase in Internet penetration rate promotes temporary dispersion of intra-urban employment and then "marginal increasing" agglomeration. Thus, this paper concludes that along with the continuous penetration of the Internet and the development of cities, the increase of the agglomeration force of the Internet will exceed the increase of the dispersion force, thereby reinforcing the city's strengths as a center of production and exchange to be a facilitator of urban employment agglomeration, while driving the evolution of urban employment towards a polycentric structure. This paper contributes to the existing literature by revealing, for the first time, the changing characteristics of the Internet's impact on the spatial structure of urban employment with the continuous penetration of the Internet, as well as the heterogeneity of its manifestations in cities at different levels of development, and offers a new explanation for the inability of existing studies to reach consistent conclusions on the diversified impact of the Internet with a rigorous analytical paradigm and a dynamic perspective. The findings of this paper are of great significance for predicting the spatial distribution of economic activities in future cities and guiding spatial planning.

Key words: Internet, dispersion, agglomeration, intra-urban employment distribution, dynamic impact, China