中国稀土对外贸易格局演化及影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb202204014

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从中美贸易摩擦到“科技冷战”以来,被誉为“高科技命脉”的稀土,日益成为国际博弈的前沿领域。在此背景下,厘清中国稀土进出口贸易流动态势、把握中国在国际稀土市场中的地位变动,对中国资源安全格局的整体优化和科技自立自强的长久维持具有一定意义。本文基于2008—2018年中国稀土进出口贸易数据、相关国家社会经济政治指标及联合国投票数据,借助相互依存指数、地缘亲和度模型、GIS空间技术以及负二项面板回归等手段,探讨了中国稀土产品对外贸易格局的演化及影响因素。研究发现：① 中国稀土贸易存在较大波动,出口额远大于进口额,整体呈现“升—降—升”发展态势。② 中国稀土进口市场高度集中且路径依赖增强,出口市场逐步多元且路径依赖减弱。中国主要出口具有较高附加值的中、下游产品,进口具有较低附加值的上游矿物类产品。③ 中国在全球稀土贸易相互依存格局中的优势地位整体强化。中国与多数友好型国家间的相互依存关系呈现优化态势,但与美国、加拿大、澳大利亚等分歧型国家之间的相互依存关系呈现恶化态势。④ 国家主体属性、国家间邻近性以及中国的贸易政策、贸易环境等对中国稀土对外贸易产生重要影响。

关键词: 稀土贸易, 时空格局, 相互依存, 中美关系, 影响因素

Abstract:

Since the Sino-U.S. trade friction to the "cold war of science and technology", rare earth, the "lifeline of high technology", has increasingly become the key point of the international games. Under the circumstances, it is of great significance to clarify the trend of China's rare earth trade and its role in the international rare earth market, to generally optimize China's resource security pattern and maintain the independence of science and technology in the long term. This paper uses the data from 2008 to 2018, including China's rare earth import and export trade data, the relevant national social, economic and political indicators, and the UN voting data. Then it discusses the spatial pattern evolution, interdependence evolution and main influence mechanism of China's rare earth products foreign trade, with the help of interdependence index, geographical affinity, GIS space technology and negative binomial panel regression. The results show that: (1) China's rare earth trade fluctuates greatly, and the export volume is much larger than the import volume, showing an "up-down-up" trend as a whole. (2) China's import market is highly concentrated and the path-dependence effect is enhanced, while the export market is gradually diversified and the path dependence is weakened. China mainly exports middle stream and downstream products with high added value and imports upstream mineral products with low added value. (3) China has strengthened its dominant position in the global rare earth trade interdependence pattern. The interdependence relationship between China and its most friendly countries has been strengthened, while that between China and the United States, Canada, Australia and other differentiated countries has been weakened. (4) The characteristics of countries, subject attribute proximity between countries and China's trade policy and trade environment have an important impact on China's rare earth import and export trade.

Key words: rare earth trade, spatiotemporal pattern, interdependence, Sino-US relation, influencing factor

夏启繁, 杜德斌, 段德忠, 孙康. 中国稀土对外贸易格局演化及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(4): 976-995.

XIA Qifan, DU Debin, DUAN Dezhong, SUN Kang. Evolution and influencing factors of China's foreign trade in rare earth metals[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(4): 976-995.

图/表 14

表1

中国稀土产品对外贸易相互依存关系评价体系

依存关系	依存级别	取值范围	指标解释基础	指标评价
单向依存	中国单向依存	$R E c → f i - R I c → f i < 0$ 且 $RaG L c, f i$ = 0	中国向该国进口但该国不向中国进口	贸易劣势
单向依存	单向依存中国	$R E c → f i - R I c → f i > 0$ 且 $RaG L c, f i$ = 0	中国向该国出口但该国不向中国出口	贸易优势
相互依存	中国高度依存	$R E c → f i - R I c → f i < 0$ 且 $RaG L c, f i$ ≥ -0.2	中国向该国进口大于该国向中国进口	贸易劣势
	中国中度依存	$R E c → f i - R I c → f i < 0$ 且-0.5< $RaG L c, f i$ < -0.2
	中国低度依存	$R E c → f i - R I c → f i < 0$ 且 $RaG L c, f i$ ≤ -0.5
	高度依存中国	$R E c → f i - R I c → f i > 0$ 且 $RaG L c, f i$ ≤ 0.2	中国向该国出口大于该国向中国出口	贸易优势
	中度依存中国	$R E c → f i - R I c → f i > 0$ 且0.2< $RaG L c, f i$ < 0.5
	低度依存中国	$R E c → f i - R I c → f i > 0$ 且 $RaG L c, f i$ ≥ 0.5

表1

表2

中国地缘亲和度评价体系

地缘亲和度取值范围	地缘亲和类型	评价
$GA I c, f i ≤ 0.6$	分歧型	投票一致性次数较少,敏感议题上存在很大分歧
$0.6 < GA I c, f i ≤ 0.8$	协调型	投票一致性次数不多,能够保持一定的协调
$0.8 < GA I c, f i ≤ 0.9$	友好型	投票一致性次数较多,多数议题能够达成共识
$GA I c, f i > 0.9$	共识型	投票一致性次数很多,几乎在各项议题达成共识

表2

图1

图2

图3

表3

图4

表4

图5

图6

图7

图8

表5

表6

中国稀土贸易影响机制的负二项回归结果

解释指标	$RE I c → f i$		$RE E c → f i$
	2008—2012年	2013—2018年	2008—2012年	2013—2018年
GDP	0.0294 (-0.0304)	-0.0846^*** (-0.0248)	0.0373^* (-0.0223)	0.0275 (-0.0262)
OUL	-0.00923^*** (-0.00256)	-01002^*** (-0.00174)	-0.00732^*** (-0.00248)	-0.0129^*** (-0.00203)
HTV	-0.0036 (-0.0138)	0.0879^*** (-0.0172)	0.0164 (-0.0102)	0.0478^*** (-0.00955)
ECI	1.269^*** (-0.126)	0.576^*** (-0.0887)	1.002^*** (-0.0911)	0.974^*** (-0.0737)
RMB	0.294 (-0.311)	-0.241 (-0.854)	-0.633^*** (-0.218)	-1.587^*** (-0.283)
CEC	-0.503 (-0.412)	0.241 (-0.825)	-1.278^*** (-0.292)	-0.753^*** (-0.0984)
CTS	-0.0156 (-0.144)	0.0186 (-0.122)	0.513^*** (-0.131)	0.589^*** (-0.128)
CRE	-2.384^** (-0.948)	0.815 (-2.036)	-3.363^*** (-0.685)	0.355 (-0.478)
常数项	17.52^* (-9.161)	-12.53 (-20.09)	48.79^*** (-6.788)	3.059 (-5.326)
样本数	410	564	470	576
Prob > chi2	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Log likelihood	-3112.5381	-3780.8994	-4728.0939	-6426.4543

表6

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进口占比(%)						出口占比(%)
2008年		2013年		2018年		2008年		2013年		2018年
日本	30.7	日本	28.1	澳大利亚	63.1	日本	32.5	日本	17.6	日本	17.3
泰国	12.2	澳大利亚	19.0	日本	6.5	美国	13.1	中国香港	15.3	美国	12.8
美国	11.4	菲律宾	10.3	马来西亚	5.9	中国香港	12.3	美国	12.3	德国	10.2
菲律宾	9.8	马来西亚	10.3	美国	5.4	韩国	5.5	德国	9.3	韩国	8.1
澳大利亚	9.6	德国	6.1	加拿大	3.7	荷兰	5.0	韩国	8.0	越南	6.5
韩国	5.0	泰国	4.5	缅甸	3.3	德国	4.6	荷兰	4.1	泰国	5.0
印尼	3.5	韩国	3.7	菲律宾	3.3	意大利	3.3	泰国	3.4	荷兰	4.6
马来西亚	3.2	智利	3.3	越南	1.5	新加坡	3.3	意大利	3.1	意大利	3.9
伊朗	2.8	美国	3.2	德国	1.2	法国	2.1	越南	2.8	中国香港	3.6
德国	2.1	越南	2.3	韩国	0.7	印度	1.9	马来西亚	2.8	马来西亚	2.9
合计	90.3	合计	90.7	合计	94.6	合计	83.6	合计	78.6	合计	75.0

依存类别	2008年		2013年		2018年
依存类别	主要国家(地区)	总数(个)	主要国家(地区)	总数(个)	主要国家(地区)	总数(个)
中国单向依存	阿富汗、刚果(金)、格鲁吉亚、老挝等	8	阿富汗、老挝、尼泊尔、南苏丹等	6	刚果(布)、格陵兰、斯威士兰	3
中国高度依存	刚果(布)、亚美尼亚、爱沙尼亚等	4	塞浦路斯、澳大利亚、智利等	7	澳大利亚、尼日利亚、尼日尔、老挝等	13
中国中度依存	菲律宾、哈萨克斯坦、缅甸、澳大利亚	4	哈萨克斯坦、立陶宛、埃塞俄比亚等	5	肯尼亚、加拿大	2
中国低度依存	印尼、泰国、多米尼加、拉脱维亚、伊朗	5	南非、乌克兰、伊朗、菲律宾等	6	菲律宾、阿联酋、马来西亚、伊朗等	6
单向依存中国	沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、阿联酋、智利等	52	利比亚、苏丹、柬埔寨、卢森堡等	58	哥伦比亚、利比亚、阿曼、中非、也门等	65
高度依存中国	葡萄牙、匈牙利、俄罗斯、新西兰等	43	美国、英国、意大利、新加坡等	49	以色列、捷克、意大利、新加坡、丹麦等	55
中度依存中国	奥地利、美国、韩国、日本、英国等	10	韩国、法国、德国、越南、朝鲜等	10	美国日本、蒙古、英国、巴西等	14
低度依存中国	丹麦、爱尔兰、摩洛哥、蒙古、朝鲜等	10	泰国、蒙古、日本、突尼斯、约旦等	8	乌克兰、摩洛哥、斯洛伐克、古巴、南非等	8

变量	类别	指标	指标解释	代码
被解释变量		稀土出口	中国对外稀土出口额	REE
		稀土进口	中国对外稀土进口额	REI
解释变量	国家主体属性	目标国经济规模	国内生产总值	GDP
		目标国对外开放度	外贸总额占GDP的比值	OUL
		目标国稀土需求	高科技产品产值	HTV
	国家间邻近性	经济邻近性	经济结构复杂性	ECI
	贸易政策及环境	中国贸易环境	人民币兑美元平均汇率	RMB
		中国出口管制	中国稀土出口配额及产量上限	CEC
		中国国家政策	“一带一路”沿线投资国赋值1,非沿线投资国赋值0	CTS
	地理资源禀赋	中国稀土产量	国家商务部统计数据	CRE