黄河流域旅游生态安全的动态演变特征及驱动因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb202203015

地理学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 77 ›› Issue (3): 714-735.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202203015

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黄河流域旅游生态安全的动态演变特征及驱动因素

穆学青¹^,²(), 郭向阳¹^,²^,³, 明庆忠⁴(), 胡程¹^,²

1.南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 210023
2.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 210023
3.贵州财经大学工商管理学院,贵阳 550025
4.云南财经大学旅游文化产业研究院,昆明 650221

收稿日期:2020-12-18 修回日期:2021-08-31 出版日期:2022-03-25 发布日期:2022-05-25
通讯作者: 明庆忠(1963-), 男, 湖北黄冈人, 博士, 教授, 博导, 主要从事区域地理与旅游开发管理。E-mail: mingqingzhong01@163.com
作者简介:穆学青(1993-), 女, 河南新乡人, 博士生, 主要从事生态旅游与旅游地理研究。E-mail: 1508018247@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41961021);国家自然科学基金项目(41671147)

Dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors of tourism ecological security in the Yellow River Basin

MU Xueqing¹^,²(), GUO Xiangyang¹^,²^,³, MING Qingzhong⁴(), HU Cheng¹^,²

1. School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
2. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
3. School of Business Administration, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China
4. Institute of Tourism and Cultural Industry, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China

Received:2020-12-18 Revised:2021-08-31 Published:2022-03-25 Online:2022-05-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41961021);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41671147)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

科学测度与审视旅游生态安全对促进黄河流域旅游经济和生态环境协调可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践价值。从流域可持续发展视角,基于DPSIR系统模型构建黄河流域旅游生态安全理论框架和指标体系,采用改进TOPSIS法、核密度曲线、空间自相关、传统和空间马尔可夫链及面板分位数回归方法对其动态演化特征和驱动因素进行探析。结果表明：① 时间上,旅游生态安全均值波动下降后上升,呈收敛趋势,且有向“双核”形态演变的趋势。空间上,旅游生态安全值整体较低（0~0.55）,由2008年以风险级为主（占89.04%）转变为2017年以风险级和恶化级为主（分别占60.27%和31.51%）,且仍存在较大下行转移风险。② 动态演化特征上,不考虑邻域条件下,旅游生态安全风险级、敏感级转移具有“路径依赖”与“自身锁定”效应。而恶化级、临界安全级保持初始状态概率较小,且类型转移通常发生在相邻等级递次转移。邻域背景在其动态变化过程中起着重要作用,且其动态演化特征具有显著时空异质性。③ 影响因素方面,环境污染对低层级单元的旅游生态安全负向抑制作用较为明显,旅游负荷水平对较高层级地区旅游生态安全的正向边际效应略大,而旅游发展水平、经济发展水平等变量则对较低等级单元旅游生态安全的正向边际效应较大。

关键词: 旅游生态安全, 动态演变特征, 空间马尔科夫链, 面板分位数回归, 黄河流域

Abstract:

It is of great theoretical and practical importance to measure and examine tourism ecological security in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The purpose of this study is to promote coordinated and sustainable development of the tourism economy and ecological environment. From the perspective of watershed sustainable development, this paper constructs the theoretical framework and index system of tourism ecological security in the YRB based on DPSIR system model, and analyzes its dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors by using improved TOPSIS method, kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation, traditional and spatial Markov chains and quantile regression panel method. The results showed that: (1) There has been an evolutionary trend toward a dual-core form of tourism ecological security over time, as its average value fluctuates and then rises. The overall tourism ecological security level was relatively low (0-0.55), shifting from the predominant risk level in 2008 (accounting for 89.04%) to the levels of predominant risk and deterioration in 2017 (60.27% and 31.51%, respectively). A large downward risk remains. (2) In terms of dynamic evolution characteristics, the transfer of tourism ecological security risks and sensitive levels had "path dependence" and "self-locking" effects. In practice, however, the probability of maintaining the initial state of the deterioration level and the critical safety level was relatively small. And the type of transfer was usually accomplished during a subsequent level transfer. Its dynamic change process was strongly influenced by regional factors. Its characteristics of dynamic evolution were characterized by significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity. (3) Tourism ecological safety was most significantly influenced by environmental pollution in lower-level units. The tourism load level had a greater positive marginal effect on higher-level areas; however, economic development and level of tourism development have a greater positive marginal effect on areas with lower ecological tourism security levels.

Key words: tourism ecological security, dynamic evolution characteristics, spatial Markov chain, panel quantile regression, Yellow River Basin

穆学青, 郭向阳, 明庆忠, 胡程. 黄河流域旅游生态安全的动态演变特征及驱动因素[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(3): 714-735.

MU Xueqing, GUO Xiangyang, MING Qingzhong, HU Cheng. Dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors of tourism ecological security in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(3): 714-735.

图/表 15

图1

表1

黄河流域旅游生态安全评价体系

子系统层	因子层	指标含义	权重	文献来源
驱动力 (D)	旅游收入增长率(%)	旅游经济效益增长潜力	0.0064	[1, 3]
	游客增长率(%)	旅游地对游客的吸引力	0.0064	[3, 47]
	GDP增长率(%)	地方经济增长潜力	0.0018	[47]
	人口自然增长率(%)	人口增长对旅游地生态系统维系的支撑或胁迫	0.0019	[3, 44]
	城镇化率(%)	城市化进程对生态系统的影响	0.0090	[3, 34]
压力 (P)	旅游经济密度(亿元/km²)	旅游活动对旅游目的地社会经济生活的压力强度	0.0460	[47]
	第三产业从业人员增长率(%)	当地旅游业及关联产业吸纳就业的能力	0.0024	[47]
	工业废水排放量(万t)	污水排放对当地生态环境的压力	0.0632	[32, 33]
	工业SO₂排放量(t)	工业废气排放对当地空气质量的影响	0.0677	[33, 47]
	游客密度(人次/km^-2)	旅游活动对当地旅游环境容量造成的综合压力	0.0400	[3, 20]
状态 (S)	游客接待量与人口数量比(-)	本地居民为游客提供的服务供给	0.0424	[47]
	国内旅游收入(亿元)	国内旅游市场经营收益状况	0.0889	[3, 33]
	旅游外汇收入(万美元)	国际旅游市场的营收能力	0.0678	[47]
	绿地园林面积(hm²)	绿化宜居、宜游质量和居民生活福利保健水平	0.0659	[32]
	建成区绿化覆盖率(%)	绿化状况及生态文明建设环境氛围	0.0140	[3, 33]
	空气质量达到二级以上天数(d)	大气环境的综合状态	0.0029	[27, 44]
影响 (I)	旅游总收入占GDP百分比(%)	旅游业的地方经济贡献度	0.0829	[32, 47]
	第三产业占GDP百分比(%)	旅游业发展的宏观环境状况	0.0058	[3]
	住宿和餐饮业从业人员数(万人)	旅游地接待能力	0.0326	[1, 33]
	工业固体废物综合利用率(%)	旅游地对固体废弃物的转化及循环利用情况	0.0101	[19, 20]
	废气排放增长率(%)	大气污染对生态环境的胁迫	0.0833	[19]
响应 (R)	财政支出占GDP百分比(%)	生态环境投资驱动力	0.0603	[47]
	生活污水处理率(%)	生活污水处理技术和能力	0.0027	[33, 47]
	生活垃圾无害化处理率(%)	对生活垃圾的绿色处理和循环发展能力	0.0037	[3, 33]
	普通高等学校学生数(人)	人才供给水平及居民素质	0.1378	[44]
	人均旅游收入(元)	居民在旅游发展中的获利情况和生计资本累积	0.0544	[3, 47]

表1

图2

表2

表3

图3

表4

图4

表5

图5

表6

图6

表7

表8

图7

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安全状态	恶化级	风险级	敏感级	临界安全级	一般安全级	比较安全级	非常安全级
安全等级	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	Ⅵ	Ⅶ
安全指数	(0, 0.25]	(0.25, 0.35]	(0.35, 0.45]	(0.45, 0.55]	(0.55, 0.65]	(0.65, 0.75]	(0.75, 1]

变量类型	变量名称	变量解释	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	旅游生态安全(TES)	采用改进TOPSIS法计算得出,表征旅游生态安全等级	0.285	0.066	0.154	0.522
解释变量	旅游发展水平(TDL)	旅游收入增长率(%)	29.693	55.449	-90.22	757.36
	经济发展水平(EDL)	GDP增长率(%)	11.485	8.459	-35.7	49.97
	劳动力投入量(LI)	第三产业从业人员增长率(%)	3.272	14.259	-64.77	210.31
	环境污染(EP)	工业二氧化硫排放量(t)	79147.873	99437.673	248	924157
	旅游负荷水平(TLL)	游客接待量与人口数量比(%)	6.026	5.521	0.13	40.24
	区域绿化程度(RGL)	绿地园林面积(hm²)	4062.956	4779.891	23	36209
	政府干预(GI)	财政支出占GDP百分比(%)	30.476	37.92	1.08	286.48
	教育水平(EL)	普通高等学校学生数(人)	76062.666	152425.97	28	935332

年份	Moran's I	Z	P	年份	Moran's I	Z	P
2008	0.1242	1.9497	0.0350	2013	0.1926	2.8218	0.0060
2009	0.1439	2.0682	0.0300	2014	0.1611	2.3089	0.0150
2010	0.0636	1.0447	0.1500	2015	0.1960	2.7813	0.0050
2011	0.2925	4.0245	0.0010	2016	0.2458	3.3651	0.0010
2012	0.1284	1.9242	0.0340	2017	0.0423	0.7845	0.1990

t	n	DL	RL	SL	CL
DL	199	0.3960	0.4996	0.1044	0
RL	342	0.2880	0.5358	0.1762	0
SL	99	0.0759	0.3613	0.4336	0.1291
CL	15	0	0.0333	0.5500	0.4167

邻域类型	t/(t+1)	n	DL	RL	SL	CL
DL	DL	52	0.4366	0.5430	0.0204	0
	RL	45	0.2448	0.5469	0.2083	0
	SL	20	0.0741	0.3519	0.4259	0.1481
	CL	2	0	0	1.0000	0
RL	DL	125	0.3198	0.5022	0.1780	0
	RL	212	0.3046	0.5264	0.1690	0
	SL	47	0.1012	0.3115	0.4133	0.1741
	CL	12	0	0	0.5833	0.4167
SL	DL	22	0.5833	0.4167	0	0
	RL	76	0.3405	0.4750	0.1845	0
	SL	27	0.0556	0.5833	0.3611	0
	CL	1	0	1.0000	0	0
CL	DL	0	0	0	0	0
	RL	9	0.2727	0.5455	0.1818	0
	SL	5	0.1250	0.8750	0	0
	CL	0	0	0	0	0

黄河流域旅游生态安全的动态演变特征及驱动因素

Dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors of tourism ecological security in the Yellow River Basin

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变量	LLC检验值	ADF检验值	PP检验值	结果
lnTES	-22.0610^***	10.1282^***	16.5920^***	平稳
lnTDL	-26.2052^***	21.3770^***	5.5180^***	平稳
lnEDL	-26.8446^***	12.5169^***	26.6660^***	平稳
lnLI	-16.2025^***	9.7789^***	6.4812^***	平稳
lnEP	-30.1274^***	23.3750^***	35.7319^***	平稳
lnTLL	-21.1290^***	6.5375^***	22.3218^***	平稳
lnRGL	-9.9460^***	4.7944^***	5.9382^***	平稳
lnGI	-9.1612^***	4.8403^***	5.9532^***	平稳
lnEL	-10.7989^***	3.3142^***	3.4957^***	平稳

变量	(1) OLS	(2) q10	(3) q25	(4) q50	(5) q75	(6) q90
lnTDL	0.401^***	0.533^***	0.447^***	0.358^***	0.288^***	0.385^***
	(5.38)	(3.61)	(4.13)	(3.34)	(2.77)	(4.18)
lnEDL	0.567^***	0.931^***	1.159^***	0.551^***	0.390^***	0.0543
	(6.99)	(5.80)	(9.85)	(4.72)	(3.45)	(0.54)
lnLI	0.421^***	0.517^***	0.571^***	0.351^***	0.305^**	0.328^***
	(4.84)	(3.00)	(4.51)	(2.79)	(2.51)	(3.05)
lnEP	-0.168^**	-0.343^**	-0.173	-0.120	-0.0337	0.0060
	(-2.10)	(-2.17)	(-1.49)	(-1.05)	(-0.30)	(0.06)
lnTLL	0.258^***	0.276^***	0.255^***	0.184^***	0.317^***	0.241^***
	(8.10)	(4.37)	(5.51)	(4.00)	(7.14)	(6.12)
lnRGL	0.187^***	0.268^***	0.268^***	0.129^**	0.146^***	0.125^***
	(4.86)	(3.51)	(4.79)	(2.33)	(2.72)	(2.62)
lnGI	0.123^***	0.144^*	0.155^***	0.0501	0.162^***	0.121^**
	(3.04)	(1.79)	(2.62)	(0.86)	(2.85)	(2.42)
lnEL	0.238^***	0.312^***	0.250^***	0.272^***	0.207^***	0.175^***
	(6.69)	(4.42)	(4.83)	(5.31)	(4.17)	(3.99)
Cons	1.535^***	1.849^***	1.918^***	1.195^***	1.445^***	1.379^***
	(9.76)	(5.94)	(8.40)	(5.27)	(6.59)	(7.10)
N	730	730	730	730	730	730

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