京津冀地区光伏开发空间适宜性及减排效益评估

doi:10.11821/dlxb202203012

地理学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 77 ›› Issue (3): 665-678.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202203012

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京津冀地区光伏开发空间适宜性及减排效益评估

刘立程¹(), 孙中孝¹, 吴锋²^,³, 张雪靓¹, 张倩¹()

1.中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京 100193
2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
3.中国科学院大学,北京 100049

收稿日期:2021-04-19 修回日期:2021-12-31 出版日期:2022-03-25 发布日期:2022-05-25
通讯作者: 张倩(1981-), 女, 山东兖州人, 副教授, 博士生导师, 研究方向为农业资源环境政策与管理。E-mail: qian. zhang@cau.edu.cn
作者简介:刘立程(1994-), 男, 甘肃民勤人, 博士生, 研究方向为资源与环境政策评估。E-mail: liulicheng@cau.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71774151);国家自然科学基金项目(51861125101);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA23070402)

Evaluation of suitability and emission reduction benefits of photovoltaic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

LIU Licheng¹(), SUN Zhongxiao¹, WU Feng²^,³, ZHANG Xueliang¹, ZHANG Qian¹()

1. College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2021-04-19 Revised:2021-12-31 Published:2022-03-25 Online:2022-05-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(71774151);National Natural Science Foundation of China(51861125101);Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA23070402)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

京津冀地区作为中国重要的能源消费基地,近年在产业转型与发展中对清洁能源的需求不断增加。光伏发电是中国“十四五”期间加速能源结构转型,早日实现碳中和目标的关键举措与重要抓手。本文以京津冀为研究区,通过构建“地形—气象—成本”光伏开发适宜性综合评价指标体系,计算了光伏开发适宜性指数,刻画出京津冀地区2018年光伏开发适宜性的空间格局特征,进而定量评估不同开发适宜性情景下光伏发电潜力与减排效益。研究表明：① 京津冀地区光伏开发适宜区占到区域总面积的22%,一般适宜区面积最广,“燕山—太行山”一线是适宜区与不适宜区的主要分界线,各类适宜区主要分布在承德、张家口和保定市3个市。 ② 京津冀地区光伏发电发展潜力巨大,开发非常适宜区和较适宜区的年发电潜力是2018年京津冀地区电力消耗的3倍。③ 光伏发电节能减排效果显著。在将非常适宜区和较适宜区全部开发情景下碳减排量为京津冀2018年排放量的47%。④ 土地利用限制、大型输电网络和储能系统是制约光伏发展的主要因素。总体来看,虽然大规模光伏开发仍存在一定的限制条件与技术瓶颈,但在全球气候变化加剧和社会经济发展进入“低碳脱碳”新常态的背景下,京津冀地区的大规模光伏开发仍是助力区域早日实现碳中和目标、优化能源结构和提升人民福祉的重要途径。

关键词: 光伏, 适宜性, 发电潜力, 碳减排, 京津冀地区

Abstract:

As a fundamental energy consumption base in China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region has experienced an increasing demand for clean energy in recent years. Photovoltaic power generation is a key for accelerating the transformation of energy infrastructure in China and achieving the goal of carbon neutrality during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025). Taking the BTH region as a study area, we construct a comprehensive evaluation index system of "terrain-weather-cost" to calculate a photovoltaic development suitability index. We subsequently analyze the spatial pattern characteristics of photovoltaic development suitability in the study area in 2018 and quantitatively examine power generation potential and emission reduction effect under different scenarios of photovoltaic development suitability. Results indicate that: (1) The suitable areas for photovoltaic development account for 22% of the total area of this region, and the largest portion of this area is moderately suitable for photovoltaic development. The "Yanshan-Taihang mountains" line geographically divides the areas that are suitable and unsuitable for photovoltaic development, and a range of potential areas are distributed in prefecture-level cities of Chengde, Zhangjiakou and Baoding. (2) Photovoltaic power generation in the BTH region has great potential. Specifically, the annual power generation potential of the extremely and highly suitable areas is about three times more than the total power consumption in the same year of 2018. (3) The energy-saving and emission reduction effects of photovoltaic power generation are remarkable. If the extremely and highly suitable areas are used for photovoltaic development, there will be an approximate 47% reduction in carbon emissions across the whole region, according to the data of 2018. (4) Despite being restricted by limited land resources and the absence of an advanced transmission network or energy storage system, large-scale photovoltaic development is still a viable solution to energy supply issues. It still improves energy infrastructure, achieves the goal of carbon neutrality, and enhances the well-being of citizens in the context of global climate change and the new low-carbon economy.

Key words: photovoltaics, suitability, power generation potential, carbon emission reduction, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

刘立程, 孙中孝, 吴锋, 张雪靓, 张倩. 京津冀地区光伏开发空间适宜性及减排效益评估[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(3): 665-678.

LIU Licheng, SUN Zhongxiao, WU Feng, ZHANG Xueliang, ZHANG Qian. Evaluation of suitability and emission reduction benefits of photovoltaic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(3): 665-678.

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参考文献 46

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指标名称	处理方法	数据来源
年太阳总辐射	站点数据Anusplin插值为百米栅格数据	中国气象数据网
年日照时数	站点数据Anusplin插值为百米栅格数据	中国气象数据网
数字高程模型	拼接(Mosaic)后重采样(Resample)为百米栅格数据	地理空间数据云
坡度	采用坡度(Slope)工具计算得到百米栅格数据	根据DEM数据计算
土地利用类型	LUCC 100×100 m栅格数据	中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心
地貌类型	中国1:100万地貌类型重采样(Resample)为百米栅格数据	中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心
距城镇距离	欧式距离(Euclidean distance)计算得到百米栅格数据	国家基础地理信息中心
距道路距离	欧式距离(Euclidean distance)计算得到百米栅格数据	国家基础地理信息中心

指标名称	方差膨胀因子 (VIF)	容忍度 (TOL)
年太阳总辐射(ASR)	3.93	0.25
数字高程模型(DEM)	3.54	0.28
年日照时数(ASH)	2.6	0.38
坡度(SLO)	1.88	0.53
距城镇距离(DFC)	1.74	0.57
土地利用类型(STY)	1.5	0.66
距道路距离(DFR)	1.42	0.70
地貌类型(GEO)	1.11	0.89

主成分	特征值	方差贡献率(%)	累计方差贡献率(%)
PC1	4.45	55.72	55.72
PC2	1.18	14.77	70.50
PC3	0.87	10.92	81.43
PC4	0.57	7.23	88.66
PC5	0.47	5.95	94.61
PC6	0.22	2.80	97.42
PC7	0.14	1.76	99.18
PC8	0.06	0.81	100

指标	PC1	PC2	PC3	PC4	PC5	PC6	PC7	PC8	权重(%)
DFR	0.49	0.15	0.78	-0.31	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	11.36
DFC	0.65	0.30	0.25	0.63	0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	12.52
DEM	0.86	0.26	-0.02	-0.05	0.08	0.40	-0.02	0.02	12.05
SLO	0.82	0.46	-0.03	-0.05	0.25	-0.07	0.03	0.18	12.73
GEO	0.86	0.35	-0.01	-0.06	0.26	-0.04	0.10	-0.18	12.69
STY	0.57	0.63	0.01	0.15	-0.48	0.06	-0.05	-0.02	11.97
ASH	-0.76	0.43	0.27	0.06	0.28	0.09	-0.23	-0.03	13.44
ASR	-0.82	0.25	0.35	0.18	0.02	0.15	0.25	0.02	13.25

参数	设定依据	参数值
AF	承德市正北沟光伏发电厂实地调研	0.35
ASR	统计插值后的单位面积太阳总辐射	5621
PE	采用目前应用最为广泛的多晶硅电池板的发电转换率	16.5%
LO	Li等^[33]	7.5%
AP	国家可再生能源中心(http://www.nea.gov.cn/)	1.8%

京津冀地区光伏开发空间适宜性及减排效益评估

Evaluation of suitability and emission reduction benefits of photovoltaic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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图/表 13

参考文献 46

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

开发情景		情景释义	面积(km²)	发电潜力(亿kWh)
S1	S1-Q1	非常适宜区开发25%	1622.59	1337.09
	S1-Q2	非常适宜区开发50%	3245.10	2674.17
	S1-Q3	非常适宜区开发75%	4867.64	4011.26
	S1-Q4	非常适宜区开发100%	6490.19	5348.34
S2	S2-Q1	较适宜区开发25%	4011.38	3305.64
	S2-Q2	较适宜区开发50%	8022.76	6611.28
	S2-Q3	较适宜区开发75%	12034.13	9916.91
	S2-Q4	较适宜区开发100%	16045.51	13222.55

开发情景		情景释义	减排物(万t)
开发情景		情景释义	氮氧化物	二氧化硫	粉尘	标准煤	二氧化碳
S1	S1-Q1	非常适宜区开发25%	200.56	401.12	3636.87	5348.34	13330.74
	S1-Q2	非常适宜区开发50%	401.12	802.25	7273.74	10696.68	26661.47
	S1-Q3	非常适宜区开发75%	601.68	1203.37	10910.61	16045.02	39992.21
	S1-Q4	非常适宜区开发100%	802.25	1604.50	14547.48	21393.36	53322.95
S2	S2-Q1	较适宜区开发25%	495.84	991.69	8991.33	13222.55	32957.21
	S2-Q2	较适宜区开发50%	991.69	1983.38	17982.67	26445.1	65914.42
	S2-Q3	较适宜区开发75%	1487.53	2975.07	26974.01	39667.66	98871.63
	S2-Q4	较适宜区开发100%	1983.38	3966.76	35965.34	52890.21	131828.8

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