雅鲁藏布江流域降水时空变化特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb202203008

地理学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 77 ›› Issue (3): 603-618.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202203008

雅鲁藏布江流域降水时空变化特征

张仪辉¹^,²(), 刘昌明¹, 梁康¹(), 吕锦心¹^,²

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101
2.中国科学院大学,北京100049

收稿日期:2021-07-30 修回日期:2021-12-26 出版日期:2022-03-25 发布日期:2022-05-25
通讯作者: 梁康(1986-), 男, 重庆巴南人, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事流域水循环演变机理研究。E-mail: liangk@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:张仪辉(1999-), 男, 山东烟台人, 硕士生, 主要从事流域水文过程对气候变化的响应机理研究。E-mail: 13671133021@163.com
基金资助:
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0903);中国科学院青年创新促进会会员人才专项(2019054)

Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin

ZHANG Yihui¹^,²(), LIU Changming¹, LIANG Kang¹(), LYU Jinxin¹^,²

1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2021-07-30 Revised:2021-12-26 Published:2022-03-25 Online:2022-05-25
Supported by:
The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(2019QZKK0903);Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(2019054)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

雅鲁藏布江流域是全球气候变化的敏感区,该流域降水变化对青藏高原的水系统、生态系统和山地灾害系统的演变具有重要影响。本文通过流域水文分析,将雅鲁藏布江流域的三大水资源区细分为9个分区。基于雅鲁藏布江流域1979—2018年降水数据,综合分析了雅鲁藏布江流域及9个分区的年、干湿季、月降水量以及日、小时尺度极端降水的时空变化特征,探讨了降水和典型大尺度大气环流因子的相关性。结果表明：① 1979—2018年间,在流域尺度上,各时间尺度降水整体上均呈上升趋势。其中,年降水量上升趋势最大,为2.5 mm·a^-1;年、干湿季降水量以及典型小时尺度极端降水（Rx3hour、Rx12hour）均在95%信度水平下显著上升。在水资源分区尺度上,各分区不同时间尺度降水的变化趋势呈现更明显的非一致性,所有分区除小时尺度极端降水均呈上升趋势外,其余时间尺度降水的趋势变化方向各异。② 雅鲁藏布江流域降水存在明显的空间分异性,且降水空间分异性会随着降水指标时间尺度的缩短而增强。各时间尺度降水整体上均呈现出自东部向西部逐渐减少的趋势,流域东南部（分区Ⅲ-2）始终是高值中心,流域中西部（分区Ⅰ-2、Ⅱ-1）存在区域性高值中心。③ 北半球副热带高压和北半球极涡对雅鲁藏布江流域降水变化具有显著影响。研究结果有助于掌握当地降水的多尺度变化特征,可为雅鲁藏布江流域和青藏高原地区的水循环研究、水资源开发利用和山洪灾害防治等提供科学基础。

关键词: 青藏高原, 雅鲁藏布江, 极端降水, 时空变化, 水资源区, 大气环流因子

Abstract:

The Yarlung Zangbo river basin (YZRB) is sensitive to global climate change. The precipitation changes in the YZRB have a great impact on the evolutions of water system, ecosystem and mountain disaster system on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this study, we divided three water resources regions of the YZRB into nine subregions through hydrological analysis. Based on precipitation data within the YZRB from 1979 to 2018, we examined the spatio-temporal variations of precipitation at annual, wet and dry seasons, monthly scales, daily and hourly extreme precipitation in the study area and its nine subregions. We further discussed the correlation between precipitation and typical large-scale atmospheric circulation factors. The results showed that: (1) From 1979 to 2018, at the whole basin scale, precipitation at each time scale showed an overall upward trend. Among them, annual precipitation showed the largest increasing trend of 2.5 mm·a^-1. Annual precipitation, dry and wet precipitation, and typical hourly scale extreme precipitation (Rx3hour and Rx12hour) increased significantly at the 95% confidence level. At the regional scale, the variation trend of precipitation at different time scales in each subregion showed more obvious inconsistencies. Except for the increasing trend of hourly scale extreme precipitation, the trends of precipitation in all the subregions were different. (2) There was an obvious spatial heterogeneity of precipitation in the YZRB, and the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation did increase with the shortening of the precipitation time scale. The precipitation at each time scale showed a gradual decreasing trend from the east to the west. The southeastern part of the YZRB (i.e. subregion Ⅲ-2) had been the center of high value, and the central and western parts (i.e. subregions Ⅰ-2 and Ⅱ-1) had a regional high value center. (3) The Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High (NHSH) and the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex (NHPV) had significant effects on precipitation changes. The results can help us to understand the characteristics of local precipitation at multiple scales, and provide a scientific basis for water cycle research, water resources development and utilization, and prevention of flash flood disasters in the YZRB and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words: Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Yarlung Zangbo river, extreme precipitation, spatio-temporal variation, water resources region, atmospheric circulation factor

张仪辉, 刘昌明, 梁康, 吕锦心. 雅鲁藏布江流域降水时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(3): 603-618.

ZHANG Yihui, LIU Changming, LIANG Kang, LYU Jinxin. Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(3): 603-618.

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水资源分区编号	分区内主要河流	集水面积(km²)	长度(km)	河口位置
水资源分区编号	分区内主要河流	集水面积(km²)	长度(km)	北纬	东经
Ⅰ-1	雅鲁藏布江	24189	311	29°56′	84°18′
Ⅰ-2	雅鲁藏布江	24317	374	29°10′	87°99′
Ⅱ-1	多雄藏布	19697	303	29°23′	87°58′
Ⅱ-2	年楚河	11101	223	29°19′	88°54′
Ⅱ-2	雅鲁藏布江	40832	241	29°24′	91°41′
Ⅱ-3	拉萨河	32471	551	29°19′	90°45′
Ⅱ-4	雅鲁藏布江	35075	594	28°99′	94°56′
Ⅱ-5	尼洋河	17732	286	29°25′	94°28′
Ⅲ-1	帕隆藏布	28600	266	29°52′	95°07′
Ⅲ-2	雅鲁藏布江	19988	496	28°01′	95°35′

指标类别	指标	指标名称	定义	单位
极值指标	Rx1day	最大1 d降水量	年最大1 d降水量	mm
	Rx7day	最大7 d降水量	年连续7 d最大降水总量	mm
	Rx3hour	最大3 h降水量	年最大3 h降水量	mm
	Rx12hour	最大12 h降水量	年最大12 h降水量	mm
阈值指标	PRCPTOT	年湿润日降水总量	一年中降水量大于1 mm/d的降水总量	mm
	R95p	极端降水量	一年中降水量超过序列中第95个百分位的降水量之和	mm
	CWD	持续湿润日数	一年中降水量大于1 mm/d的最大持续日数	d
	R10	强降水日数	一年中降水量大于10 mm/d的总日数	d

月份	平均降水量(mm)	变化趋势(mm·a^-1)	月最高降水量		月最低降水量		变差系数C_v
月份	平均降水量(mm)	变化趋势(mm·a^-1)	年份	数值(mm)	年份	数值(mm)	变差系数C_v
1	7.0	0.1	1989	25.8	2006	0.2	0.77
2	13.5	0.1	2007	31.7	1985	5.0	0.40
3	25.0	0.2^*	1998	39.2	1990	10.5	0.29
4	37.6	0.3^*	2016	65.8	2009	21.3	0.28
5	48.3	0.5^*	2000	72.1	1986	27.6	0.23
6	86.8	0.4	2004	122.7	1987	46.0	0.24
7	120.5	0.5	2004	183.4	2015	61.8	0.23
8	111.2	0.4	1998	178.8	1982	53.4	0.26
9	76.8	-0.02	2016	122.5	2009	36.5	0.26
10	28.7	0.01	2013	54.5	1981	8.9	0.39
11	6.3	0.1	2006	16.1	1980	1.0	0.63
12	4.9	-0.1	1997	15.6	1993	0.6	0.14

水资源分区	年降水量			湿季降水量			干季降水量			月降水量
水资源分区	均值 (mm)	趋势(mm·a^-1)	变差系数	均值 (mm)	趋势(mm·a^-1)	变差系数	均值 (mm)	趋势(mm·a^-1)	变差系数	均值 (mm)	趋势(mm·a^-1)	变差系数
Ⅰ-1	330.9	3.3^*	0.24	211.5	1.9^*	0.29	115.4	1.3	0.47	27.2	0.3^*	0.24
Ⅰ-2	472.0	-1.8	0.16	343.7	-2.2^*	0.18	121.0	0.4	0.38	38.7	-0.1	0.16
Ⅱ-1	413.6	2.0	0.18	356.5	1.0	0.20	49.5	0.9^*	0.37	33.8	0.2	0.18
Ⅱ-2	394.2	2.3^*	0.21	357.4	1.5	0.22	29.3	0.7^*	0.48	32.2	0.2^*	0.21
Ⅱ-3	528.6	3.5^*	0.18	456.9	2.3^*	0.18	62.9	1.1^*	0.33	43.3	0.3^*	0.18
Ⅱ-4	530.2	4.5^*	0.18	434.5	2.9^*	0.20	86.9	1.5^*	0.29	43.4	0.4^*	0.18
Ⅱ-5	698.5	3.4^*	0.16	574.0	2.0	0.17	113.6	1.4^*	0.23	57.3	0.3^*	0.16
Ⅲ-1	759.1	-4.1^*	0.14	546.5	-3.7^*	0.16	201.6	-0.3	0.18	62.3	-0.3^*	0.14
Ⅲ-2	1356.1	11.4^*	0.17	870.6	12.0^*	0.24	466.3	-0.8	0.19	111.4	0.9^*	0.17

水资源分区	Rx1day			Rx7day			Rx3hour			Rx12hour
水资源分区	均值 (mm)	趋势(mm·a^-1)	变差系数	均值 (mm)	趋势(mm·a^-1)	变差系数	均值 (mm)	趋势(mm·a^-1)	变差系数	均值 (mm)	趋势(mm·a^-1)	变差系数
Ⅰ-1	19.6	0.03	0.59	40.4	0.3	0.39	7.8	0.2^*	0.54	14.9	0.4^*	0.50
Ⅰ-2	21.3	-0.2	0.64	53.7	-0.4^*	0.30	8.0	0.2^*	0.55	15.8	0.3^*	0.43
Ⅱ-1	16.5	-0.1	0.30	55.8	-0.3	0.24	7.1	0.1^*	0.42	16.2	0.3^*	0.37
Ⅱ-2	13.5	-0.1	0.17	55.8	-0.2	0.20	5.1	0.1^*	0.37	13.1	0.2^*	0.31
Ⅱ-3	14.9	0.03	0.18	57.1	0.2	0.14	6.1	0.1^*	0.37	16.1	0.3^*	0.32
Ⅱ-4	16.4	0.2^*	0.28	61.3	0.5^*	0.23	5.2	0.1^*	0.32	13.6	0.3^*	0.34
Ⅱ-5	18.8	0.1	0.20	72.0	0.3	0.21	7.2	0.1^*	0.31	19.9	0.3^*	0.28
Ⅲ-1	19.5	-0.1	0.31	69.7	-0.6^*	0.28	6.3	0.1^*	0.43	15.4	0.1^*	0.24
Ⅲ-2	41.8	0.9^*	0.50	130.9	4.5^*	0.26	12.8	0.4^*	0.48	30.3	0.9^*	0.40

雅鲁藏布江流域降水时空变化特征

Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin

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图/表 14

参考文献 41

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

降水指标	北半球副高北界	北半球副高脊线	北半球极涡面积	北半球极涡强度指数
年降水量	0.38^*	0.40^*	-0.44^**	-0.44^**
湿季降水量	0.34^*	0.42^**	-0.34^*	-0.32^*
干季降水量	0.15	-0.01	-0.33^*	-0.40^*
月降水量	0.43^**	0.42^**	-0.49^**	-0.48^**
Rx1day	0.01	0.18	-0.21	0.01
Rx7day	0.16	0.18	-0.06	-0.13
Rx3hour	0.26	0.40^*	-0.61^**	-0.45^**
Rx12hour	0.16	0.37^*	-0.46^**	-0.15
PRCPTOT	0.40^*	0.42^**	-0.39^*	-0.42^**
R95p	0.33^*	0.28	-0.22	-0.19
CWD	0.33^*	0.19	-0.07	-0.24
R10	0.18	0.17	-0.03	-0.03

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