地理学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 77 ›› Issue (2): 457-473.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202202013
收稿日期:
2021-02-22
修回日期:
2021-11-17
出版日期:
2022-02-25
发布日期:
2022-04-25
通讯作者:
周侃(1986-), 男, 云南丽江人, 博士, 副研究员, 硕士生导师, 研究方向为资源环境承载力与区域可持续发展。E-mail: zhoukan2008@126.com作者简介:
王强(1982-), 男, 河北成安人, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 研究方向为经济地理与区域可持续发展。E-mail: wangq@fjnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
WANG Qiang1,2(), ZHOU Kan3(
), LIN Jian4
Received:
2021-02-22
Revised:
2021-11-17
Published:
2022-02-25
Online:
2022-04-25
Supported by:
摘要:
能源转型是中国如期实现碳中和、碳达峰目标的必然路径,也是缩小城乡居民能源消费差距、实现能源平等的关键举措。基于2013年和2017年的家庭追踪调查数据,运用基尼系数、局部加权回归以及逐步回归等方法,在揭示中国城乡家庭能源平等的时空特征、能源转型效果基础上,定量评价影响地区间、城乡间家庭能源平等的驱动因素。结果表明:① 中国城乡家庭的能源消费水平总体呈明显不平等特征,但随着能源转型政策实施以及城乡融合进程加速,城乡家庭间能源不平等程度有所减小。② 对10609个城乡家庭样本、9类分区的比较显示,除长三角地区的家庭能源平等性较高外,其他地区均呈不同程度的非均衡性,尤其在云贵等西南地区的家庭能源不平等现象尤为突出。③ 家庭收入、家庭规模、城乡居住区位、气候条件以及现代化能源可获得性显著影响家庭能源支出,进而对区域间的家庭能源平等性造成影响,而当地的能源资源禀赋对家庭能源支出的影响并不显著。④ 尽管农村地区气态能源、电力资源普及有效推动了城乡家庭能源转型,但农村家庭需担负相较于城镇家庭居民更大的能源转型经济压力。
王强, 周侃, 林键. 中国城乡家庭能源平等变化特征分析[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(2): 457-473.
WANG Qiang, ZHOU Kan, LIN Jian. Changes in energy equality between urban and rural households in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(2): 457-473.
表1
变量定义及描述性统计
变量 | 含义 | 单位与赋值 | 均值 | 标准差 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013年 | 2017年 | 2013年 | 2017年 | ||||
Per_cost | 家庭人均能源支出 | 元/人,2010年不变价 | 670.50 | 867.45 | 535.15 | 693.75 | |
Per_inco | 家庭人均收入 | 元/人,2010年不变价 | 14666.39 | 20559.83 | 17901.02 | 29455.53 | |
Fam_size | 家庭人口规模 | 人 | 3.77 | 3.73 | 1.79 | 1.86 | |
Urb | 城镇家庭或农村家庭 | 农村家庭,Urb=1 城镇家庭,Urb=2 | 1.49 | 1.51 | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
Wea | 气候条件 | 严寒地区,Wea=1 寒冷地区,Wea=2 夏热冬冷地区,Wea=3 夏热冬暖地区,Wea=4 温暖湿润地区,Wea=5 | 2.50 | 2.53 | 1.06 | 1.07 | |
Per_ener | 所在地区能源资源禀赋 | 吨标准煤/人 | 5.42 | 3.39 | 4.92 | 2.94 | |
Gas_acce | 城乡天然气普及率 | % | 54.26 | 59.51 | 40.77 | 39.84 |
表3
逐步回归估计结果
变量 | 2013年 | 2017年 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
未标准化 系数(B) | 标准化 系数(Beta) | t统计量 | VIF | 未标准化 系数(B) | 标准化 系数(Beta) | t统计量 | VIF | |
常量 | 5.161*** | - | 57.438 | - | 5.310 | - | 59.152 | - |
Per_inco | 0.195*** | 0.243*** | 28.444 | 1.124 | 0.178*** | 0.256*** | 28.143 | 1.193 |
Fam_size | -0.102*** | -0.214*** | -25.466 | 1.091 | -0.099*** | -0.235*** | -27.323 | 1.069 |
Urb | 0.217*** | 0.127*** | 9.079 | 3.014 | 0.112*** | 0.072*** | 5.069 | 2.887 |
Wea | -0.116*** | -0.144*** | -17.492 | 1.052 | -0.139*** | -0.190*** | -22.542 | 1.022 |
Gas_acce | 0.076** | 0.130** | 9.170 | 3.111 | 0.088** | 0.139** | 9.829 | 2.869 |
Per_ener | -0.024 | -0.015 | -1.120 | 2.739 | -0.018 | -0.003 | -8.954 | 4.156 |
模型诊断 | 调整后R2 | F检验 | Jarque-Bera检验 | 调整后R2 | F检验 | Jarque-Bera检验 | ||
0.517 | 824.196*** | 25.512*** | 0.527 | 801.643*** | 31.754*** |
表4
城乡家庭能源选择比例(%)
年份 | 样本 | 传统固态燃料 | 现代清洁能源 | 其他 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
柴草 | 煤炭 | 灌装煤气/液化气 | 太阳能/沼气 | 天然气/管道煤气 | 电力 | |||
2013 | 全样本 | 34.1 | 6.2 | 27.3 | 0.8 | 11.3 | 20.1 | 0.2 |
城镇样本 | 15.3 | 5.0 | 34.2 | 0.5 | 23.5 | 21.0 | 0.5 | |
农村样本 | 49.1 | 7.1 | 21.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 19.3 | 0.4 | |
2017 | 全样本 | 23.1 | 3.7 | 30.1 | 0.3 | 20.0 | 22.5 | 0.3 |
城镇样本 | 9.6 | 1.7 | 32.6 | 0.1 | 34.6 | 20.8 | 0.7 | |
农村样本 | 33.8 | 5.3 | 28.0 | 0.4 | 8.2 | 23.8 | 0.5 |
表5
2013—2017年不同地区城乡家庭清洁能源普及率变化情况
地区(代码) | 普及率(%) | 变化幅度(%) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
2013年 | 2017年 | |||
西北寒冷地区(COLD1) | 26.6 | 43.4 | 16.8 | |
中部寒冷地区(COLD2) | 61.7 | 76.2 | 14.5 | |
北方寒冷地区(COLD3) | 65.8 | 79.3 | 13.5 | |
东部夏热冬冷地区(HSCW1) | 86.5 | 93.8 | 7.3 | |
中部夏热冬冷地区(HSCW2) | 54.7 | 72.5 | 17.8 | |
西南夏热冬冷地区(HSCW3) | 48.1 | 62.9 | 14.8 | |
东部夏热冬暖地区(HSWW) | 67.7 | 83.4 | 15.7 | |
东北严寒地区(SECO) | 59.9 | 70.2 | 10.4 | |
西南温暖湿润地区(TEMP) | 58.8 | 68.4 | 9.6 |
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