中国城乡家庭能源平等变化特征分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb202202013

地理学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 77 ›› Issue (2): 457-473.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202202013

中国城乡家庭能源平等变化特征分析

王强¹^,²(), 周侃³(), 林键⁴

1.福建师范大学地理研究所,福州 350007
2.湿润亚热带生态地理过程教育部重点实验室,福州 350007
3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
4.加利福尼亚大学默塞德塞拉内华达研究所,美国默塞德 95340

收稿日期:2021-02-22 修回日期:2021-11-17 出版日期:2022-02-25 发布日期:2022-04-25
通讯作者: 周侃(1986-), 男, 云南丽江人, 博士, 副研究员, 硕士生导师, 研究方向为资源环境承载力与区域可持续发展。E-mail: zhoukan2008@126.com
作者简介:王强(1982-), 男, 河北成安人, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 研究方向为经济地理与区域可持续发展。E-mail: wangq@fjnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41971159);国家自然科学基金项目(41971164);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0406);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA23020101)

Changes in energy equality between urban and rural households in China

WANG Qiang¹^,²(), ZHOU Kan³(), LIN Jian⁴

1. Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
2. Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, Fuzhou 350007, China
3. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
4. Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California, Merced 95340, USA

Received:2021-02-22 Revised:2021-11-17 Published:2022-02-25 Online:2022-04-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971159);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971164);Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0406);Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences](XDA23020101)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

能源转型是中国如期实现碳中和、碳达峰目标的必然路径,也是缩小城乡居民能源消费差距、实现能源平等的关键举措。基于2013年和2017年的家庭追踪调查数据,运用基尼系数、局部加权回归以及逐步回归等方法,在揭示中国城乡家庭能源平等的时空特征、能源转型效果基础上,定量评价影响地区间、城乡间家庭能源平等的驱动因素。结果表明：① 中国城乡家庭的能源消费水平总体呈明显不平等特征,但随着能源转型政策实施以及城乡融合进程加速,城乡家庭间能源不平等程度有所减小。② 对10609个城乡家庭样本、9类分区的比较显示,除长三角地区的家庭能源平等性较高外,其他地区均呈不同程度的非均衡性,尤其在云贵等西南地区的家庭能源不平等现象尤为突出。③ 家庭收入、家庭规模、城乡居住区位、气候条件以及现代化能源可获得性显著影响家庭能源支出,进而对区域间的家庭能源平等性造成影响,而当地的能源资源禀赋对家庭能源支出的影响并不显著。④ 尽管农村地区气态能源、电力资源普及有效推动了城乡家庭能源转型,但农村家庭需担负相较于城镇家庭居民更大的能源转型经济压力。

关键词: 城乡关系, 能源支出, 能源平等, 能源转型, 时空特征, 中国

Abstract:

Energy transition is an effective path to peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, which is an effective measure to bridge the gaps between urban and rural families' energy demand and realize energy equality. Based on the survey data from China Family Panel Studies provided by the Institute of Social Science Survey of Peking University, this paper takes the per capita residential energy cost as the key indicator, and applies three major tools to analyze the evolution of energy equality between urban and rural households during 2013-2017, including Gini coefficient and its decomposing technology, Lorenz curve and Lorenz asymmetry coefficient, Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing, and Stepwise Regression. Then, the significance and economic burden of household energy transition was evaluated. The results show that: (1) On the whole, there are inequalities in household energy cost at present. However, with the implementation of national and local energy transition policies in recent years, the promotion of urban-rural integration, and the increase in the income of urban and rural households, the gap between urban and rural areas had been considerably narrowed during 2013-2017, thus its contribution rate to the national inequality dropped from 26.8% to 24.0%. (2) From the spatial perspective, energy inequality is most prominent in the temperate and humid region covering Yunnan and Guizhou, while the distribution of energy cost in the Yangtze River Delta, which is hot in summer and cold in winter, was relatively reasonable. Meanwhile, energy inequality has remained in the other regions to varying degrees. (3) Household income, household size, residential location, climatic conditions, and modern energy availability significantly affect household energy expenditures, which in turn affect energy equality within a region and between urban and rural areas. However, energy endowment does not have an obvious influence on the household energy expenditures. (4) In recent years, national energy transition had achieved remarkable results, and there had been a widespread coverage of advanced fuels. As the wide use of canned gas/liquefied gas, natural gas/pipeline gas, and electricity in rural areas, a rapid energy transition from primary to advanced fuels was accelerated. Meanwhile, compared with urban residents, rural households are often under greater economic pressure in the energy transition, that is to say, achieving energy transition in rural households will increase higher extra cost than that of urban households with the same per capita income. In addition, in the current process of energy transition, relatively low-income urban households and relatively high-income rural households are the main participants.

Key words: urban-rural relationship, energy cost, energy equality, energy transition, spatial and temporal characteristics, China

王强, 周侃, 林键. 中国城乡家庭能源平等变化特征分析[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(2): 457-473.

WANG Qiang, ZHOU Kan, LIN Jian. Changes in energy equality between urban and rural households in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(2): 457-473.

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变量	含义	单位与赋值	均值		标准差
变量	含义	单位与赋值	2013年	2017年	2013年	2017年
Per_cost	家庭人均能源支出	元/人,2010年不变价	670.50	867.45	535.15	693.75
Per_inco	家庭人均收入	元/人,2010年不变价	14666.39	20559.83	17901.02	29455.53
Fam_size	家庭人口规模	人	3.77	3.73	1.79	1.86
Urb	城镇家庭或农村家庭	农村家庭,Urb=1 城镇家庭,Urb=2	1.49	1.51	0.50	0.50
Wea	气候条件	严寒地区,Wea=1 寒冷地区,Wea=2 夏热冬冷地区,Wea=3 夏热冬暖地区,Wea=4 温暖湿润地区,Wea=5	2.50	2.53	1.06	1.07
Per_ener	所在地区能源资源禀赋	吨标准煤/人	5.42	3.39	4.92	2.94
Gas_acce	城乡天然气普及率	%	54.26	59.51	40.77	39.84

比较项	2013年		2017年
比较项	基尼系数	贡献率(%)	基尼系数	贡献率(%)
城镇内部	0.122	26.2	0.125	28.3
农村内部	0.096	20.6	0.087	19.7
城乡之间	0.125	26.8	0.106	24.0
交叠项	0.123	26.4	0.123	27.9
总体样本	0.466	100.0	0.441	100.0

变量	2013年				2017年
变量	未标准化系数(B)	标准化系数(Beta)	t统计量	VIF	未标准化系数(B)	标准化系数(Beta)	t统计量	VIF
常量	5.161^***	-	57.438	-	5.310	-	59.152	-
Per_inco	0.195^***	0.243^***	28.444	1.124	0.178^***	0.256^***	28.143	1.193
Fam_size	-0.102^***	-0.214^***	-25.466	1.091	-0.099^***	-0.235^***	-27.323	1.069
Urb	0.217^***	0.127^***	9.079	3.014	0.112^***	0.072^***	5.069	2.887
Wea	-0.116^***	-0.144^***	-17.492	1.052	-0.139^***	-0.190^***	-22.542	1.022
Gas_acce	0.076^**	0.130^**	9.170	3.111	0.088^**	0.139^**	9.829	2.869
Per_ener	-0.024	-0.015	-1.120	2.739	-0.018	-0.003	-8.954	4.156
模型诊断	调整后R²	F检验	Jarque-Bera检验		调整后R²	F检验	Jarque-Bera检验
模型诊断	0.517	824.196^***	25.512^***		0.527	801.643^***	31.754^***

年份	样本	传统固态燃料		现代清洁能源				其他
年份	样本	柴草	煤炭	灌装煤气/液化气	太阳能/沼气	天然气/管道煤气	电力	其他
2013	全样本	34.1	6.2	27.3	0.8	11.3	20.1	0.2
	城镇样本	15.3	5.0	34.2	0.5	23.5	21.0	0.5
	农村样本	49.1	7.1	21.6	1.1	1.4	19.3	0.4
2017	全样本	23.1	3.7	30.1	0.3	20.0	22.5	0.3
	城镇样本	9.6	1.7	32.6	0.1	34.6	20.8	0.7
	农村样本	33.8	5.3	28.0	0.4	8.2	23.8	0.5

地区(代码)	普及率(%)		变化幅度(%)
地区(代码)	2013年	2017年	变化幅度(%)
西北寒冷地区(COLD1)	26.6	43.4	16.8
中部寒冷地区(COLD2)	61.7	76.2	14.5
北方寒冷地区(COLD3)	65.8	79.3	13.5
东部夏热冬冷地区(HSCW1)	86.5	93.8	7.3
中部夏热冬冷地区(HSCW2)	54.7	72.5	17.8
西南夏热冬冷地区(HSCW3)	48.1	62.9	14.8
东部夏热冬暖地区(HSWW)	67.7	83.4	15.7
东北严寒地区(SECO)	59.9	70.2	10.4
西南温暖湿润地区(TEMP)	58.8	68.4	9.6

中国城乡家庭能源平等变化特征分析

Changes in energy equality between urban and rural households in China

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