2000—2020年中国人口分布格局演变及影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb202202008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于第五、六、七次全国人口普查数据,本文分析了2000—2020年中国人口分布的空间格局、集散态势和影响因素。结果表明,中国人口分布依然保持东密西疏的基本格局,胡焕庸线两侧的自然地理环境差异性决定了这一格局的长期稳定性;人口空间集中化趋势在21世纪初的10年内主要发生在东南半壁,但在2010—2020年间成为各区域的共同特征。省会城市的人口集聚能力持续增强,2010—2020年的优势更加凸显,但这种行政力量主导的首位度提升效应将随着全省发展阶段的演进而逐渐弱化。人口变动的区域分化明显：沿海城市群的空间连绵化逐渐形成了强吸引力、高承载力的沿海人口增长带,东北地区几乎转向全面的人口收缩,中部各省依托省会展开的人口竞争依然激烈,川渝黔地区普遍实现了人口的止降回增,西北地区则面临人口收缩风险。此外,区域人口增长的驱动因素逐渐从经济要素主导转为经济要素和舒适性要素并重,各地区舒适性的差异可能将成为影响未来人口空间格局变化的重要因素。

关键词: 人口分布, 胡焕庸线, 空间格局, 公共服务, 人口普查, 中国

Abstract:

Using data of the latest three decennial censuses, this paper systematically analyzes the overall spatial pattern, changing trends, and influence mechanisms of China's population distribution since 2000. The study reveals that the general population distribution pattern of "dense east and sparse west" in China has not changed, which is determined by the differences in natural geographic environments on the two sides of Hu Line. In the first decade of the century, population concentration was mainly found in the southeastern area, but it has been observed in all regions in the recent decade. Provincial capitals have become the winners of population competition and the advantages of population growth of provincial capitals have been further strengthened in the recent decade compared with 2000-2010. However, the administrative power-led effects of the increasing dominance of provincial capitals will gradually weaken with the development of their provinces. The regional differentiation of population changes is also apparent: coastal region gradually forms a dense belt of population and towns with solid population attraction based on the development of urban agglomerations; the northeast region almost turns to a complete population shrinking status; central provinces still compete fiercely for population based on their capitals; the population of Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou has stopped the decline and returned to growth; and the northwest region faces the risk of population loss. In addition, this paper finds that the driving factors of regional population growth have gradually changed from economic factors to both economic and amenity factors, and the difference of amenities among regions may become an important factor for future changes in China's population geography.

Key words: population distribution, Hu Line, spatial pattern, public services, population census, China

刘涛, 彭荣熙, 卓云霞, 曹广忠. 2000—2020年中国人口分布格局演变及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(2): 381-394.

LIU Tao, PENG Rongxi, ZHUO Yunxia, CAO Guangzhong. China's changing population distribution and influencing factors: Insights from the 2020 census data[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(2): 381-394.

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变量	符号	2000年				2010年
变量	符号	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
常住人口增长率(%)	growth	7.39	13.22	-21.04	72.00	3.28	15.31	-26.56	69.53
基期人口密度(千人/km²)	density	0.39	0.39	0.00	3.61	0.44	0.51	0.00	5.33
省会	capital	0.11	0.31	0.00	1.00	0.11	0.31	0.00	1.00
所在省份人均GDP(万元)	provpcGDP	0.73	0.32	0.28	2.77	3.07	1.18	1.32	7.46
省域人口分布基尼系数	provgini	0.34	0.18	0.11	0.79	0.36	0.17	0.12	0.75
一月平均气温(℃)	temJan	-1.36	9.96	-25.99	20.56	0.25	9.34	-24.80	21.21
PM_2.5	pm25	22.38	11.63	0.79	62.33	36.30	17.30	2.78	74.80
平均坡度(°)	slope	5.34	3.90	0.16	18.12	5.34	3.90	0.16	18.12
城镇居民人均收入(千元)	incomeu	5.92	2.05	3.22	21.63	17.15	4.44	8.26	35.69
人均非农就业数量	pcemp	0.26	0.10	0.02	0.65	0.35	0.10	0.12	0.68
每百人医护人员数	pcmedp	0.35	0.13	0.03	1.01	0.44	0.13	0.16	0.96
每百人中小学教师数	pctch	0.82	0.15	0.20	1.46	0.83	0.16	0.42	1.33
少数民族人口占比(%)	ethp	11.64	21.78	0.04	97.73	11.53	21.67	0.01	96.91
人口自然增长率(‰)	ngrowth	5.88	3.35	-1.17	17.42	4.89	3.27	-2.74	16.14

		2000年	2010年	2020年
全国		0.711	0.718	0.735
胡焕庸线两侧	东南半壁	0.517	0.534	0.566
	西北半壁	0.754	0.748	0.752
四大地区	东部	0.365	0.398	0.427
	中部	0.302	0.305	0.336
	西部	0.773	0.765	0.771
	东北	0.449	0.459	0.504

变量	(1) 基期人口密度		(2) 基期人口密度×胡焕庸线		(3) 基期人口密度×四大地区
变量	2000—2010年	2010—2020年	2000—2010年	2010—2020年	2000—2010年	2010—2020年
density	4.54(1.27)	6.37^***(3.91)	4.82(1.38)	6.21^***(3.73)	5.46(1.47)	4.82^***(2.78)
northwest			4.02(1.26)	6.36^**(2.26)
density×northwest			2.23(0.10)	13.04(0.61)
central					0.26(0.11)	-11.95^***(-4.22)
density×central					-3.71(-0.73)	18.69^***(3.21)
west					-0.15(-0.05)	-8.74^***(-2.79)
density×west					-6.57(-0.91)	23.32^***(2.97)
northeast					-5.42^*(-1.67)	-19.54^***(-6.08)
density×northeast					-8.00(-0.90)	37.06^***(5.53)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
常数项	-37.39^*** (-5.38)	-53.89^*** (-7.22)	-37.27^*** (-5.36)	-54.06^*** (-7.37)	-28.98^*** (-3.24)	-39.14^*** (-4.77)
观测数	290	290	290	290	290	290
调整R²	0.569	0.568	0.574	0.637	0.578	0.670
变量	(4) 省会		(5) 省会×省基尼系数		(6) 省会×省人均GDP
变量	2000—2010年	2010—2020年	2000—2010年	2010—2020年	2000—2010年	2010—2020年
density	4.10(1.23)	5.56^***(2.95)	3.10(0.91)	6.84^***(4.72)	3.46(1.02)	6.80^***(4.77)
capital	6.67^***(3.65)	15.31^***(5.92)	8.49^**(2.04)	18.09^***(3.19)	8.54^*(1.83)	35.51^***(6.83)
provgini			5.66(1.56)	3.49(0.87)
capital×provgini			-6.67(-0.71)	-2.10(-0.14)
provpcGDP					1.49(0.65)	0.17(0.29)
capital×provpcGDP					-3.14(-0.49)	-6.24^***(-4.57)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
常数项	-36.57^*** (-5.50)	-49.06^*** (-7.39)	-37.57^*** (-5.51)	-54.27^*** (-7.15)	-35.00^*** (-5.22)	-54.36^*** (-8.57)
观测数	290	290	286	286	286	286
调整R²	0.588	0.691	0.568	0.723	0.565	0.738