地理学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 77 ›› Issue (2): 381-394.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202202008

• 人口地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

2000—2020年中国人口分布格局演变及影响因素

刘涛1,2(), 彭荣熙1,2, 卓云霞1,2, 曹广忠1,2()   

  1. 1.北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871
    2.北京大学未来城市研究中心,北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2021-07-09 修回日期:2021-11-11 出版日期:2022-02-25 发布日期:2022-04-25
  • 通讯作者: 曹广忠(1969-), 男, 山东莘县人, 博士, 教授, 博导, 研究方向为人口迁移与城镇化。E-mail: caogzh@pku.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:刘涛(1987-), 男, 安徽宿州人, 博士, 研究员, 博导, 研究方向为人口迁移和城乡规划。E-mail: liutao@pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD173)

China's changing population distribution and influencing factors: Insights from the 2020 census data

LIU Tao1,2(), PENG Rongxi1,2, ZHUO Yunxia1,2, CAO Guangzhong1,2()   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    2. Center for Urban Future Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2021-07-09 Revised:2021-11-11 Published:2022-02-25 Online:2022-04-25
  • Supported by:
    Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China(20&ZD173)

摘要:

基于第五、六、七次全国人口普查数据,本文分析了2000—2020年中国人口分布的空间格局、集散态势和影响因素。结果表明,中国人口分布依然保持东密西疏的基本格局,胡焕庸线两侧的自然地理环境差异性决定了这一格局的长期稳定性;人口空间集中化趋势在21世纪初的10年内主要发生在东南半壁,但在2010—2020年间成为各区域的共同特征。省会城市的人口集聚能力持续增强,2010—2020年的优势更加凸显,但这种行政力量主导的首位度提升效应将随着全省发展阶段的演进而逐渐弱化。人口变动的区域分化明显:沿海城市群的空间连绵化逐渐形成了强吸引力、高承载力的沿海人口增长带,东北地区几乎转向全面的人口收缩,中部各省依托省会展开的人口竞争依然激烈,川渝黔地区普遍实现了人口的止降回增,西北地区则面临人口收缩风险。此外,区域人口增长的驱动因素逐渐从经济要素主导转为经济要素和舒适性要素并重,各地区舒适性的差异可能将成为影响未来人口空间格局变化的重要因素。

关键词: 人口分布, 胡焕庸线, 空间格局, 公共服务, 人口普查, 中国

Abstract:

Using data of the latest three decennial censuses, this paper systematically analyzes the overall spatial pattern, changing trends, and influence mechanisms of China's population distribution since 2000. The study reveals that the general population distribution pattern of "dense east and sparse west" in China has not changed, which is determined by the differences in natural geographic environments on the two sides of Hu Line. In the first decade of the century, population concentration was mainly found in the southeastern area, but it has been observed in all regions in the recent decade. Provincial capitals have become the winners of population competition and the advantages of population growth of provincial capitals have been further strengthened in the recent decade compared with 2000-2010. However, the administrative power-led effects of the increasing dominance of provincial capitals will gradually weaken with the development of their provinces. The regional differentiation of population changes is also apparent: coastal region gradually forms a dense belt of population and towns with solid population attraction based on the development of urban agglomerations; the northeast region almost turns to a complete population shrinking status; central provinces still compete fiercely for population based on their capitals; the population of Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou has stopped the decline and returned to growth; and the northwest region faces the risk of population loss. In addition, this paper finds that the driving factors of regional population growth have gradually changed from economic factors to both economic and amenity factors, and the difference of amenities among regions may become an important factor for future changes in China's population geography.

Key words: population distribution, Hu Line, spatial pattern, public services, population census, China