中国超大城市户籍人口转化的实证研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb202202007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“十四五”时期到2030年,加快流动人口市民化是推进新型城镇化和实现共同富裕的关键。中国户籍人口城镇化率与常住人口城镇化率相差约18%,老龄化压力与劳动力市场缺口使大城市纷纷出台“抢人”政策,市民化程度亟待提升,焦点在北上广深等超大城市。超大城市每年户籍人口转化数相差很大,学界对此缺乏研究,使得城市每年能“化”多少户籍人口成为重要学术问题。本文结合自然和社会两个视角,选取简明指标,构建可能—满意度模型,测算4个超大城市年均户籍城镇化转化缺口,构建面板数据模型实证分析超大城市户籍缺口的主导因素。影响超大城市户籍人口转化的因素主要是医疗、教育和供水。城乡治理亟需转变被动和僵化的制度安排,实现弹性的常态化治理。

关键词: 城镇化, 市民化, 城市, 可持续, 治理, 中国

Abstract:

From 2020 to 2030, accelerating the citizenization of the floating population is the key to promoting new urbanization and achieving common prosperity. The urbanization rate of registered population in China is roughly 18% lower than that of permanent residents. The aging pressure and lack of labor force make big cities introduce relevant policies to attract talents, and the citizenization process needs to be improved urgently, with the focus on megacities. The transformation number of registered people in megacities varies greatly, and the academic world lacks research on this, which makes the transformation number of registered residents in megacities become an important academic issue. This paper, from both natural and social perspectives, selects concise indicators, and combines the Possibility-Satisfiability model to estimate the urbanization transformation gap of annual household registration, and constructs a panel data model to empirically analyze the factors leading to the gap of household registration in megacities. The main factors affecting the transformation of registered population in megacities are medical service, as well as educational resources and urban water supply. It is urgent for urban and rural administrators to change the passive and rigid institutional mechanisms and realize the flexible and normal governance.

Key words: urbanization, citizenization, urban areas, sustainability, governance, China

叶超, 杨东阳, 赵江南. 中国超大城市户籍人口转化的实证研究[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(2): 369-380.

YE Chao, YANG Dongyang, ZHAO Jiangnan. An empirical research of the registered population transformation in China's megacities[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(2): 369-380.

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指标类型	可能性指标	满意性指标	权重
经济发展	r₁GDP(亿元)	s₁人均GDP(元)	0.07
经济发展	r₂一般公共预算收入(亿元)	s₂人均一般公共收入(万元)	0.08
社会生活	r₃卫生机构床位数(万张)	s₃卫生机构床位数(张/万人)	0.10
	r₄从业人数(万人)	s₄就业率(%)	0.10
	r₅社会保障和就业支出(亿元)	s₅社会保障和就业(万元)	0.11
	r₆城市道路面积(万m²)	s₆人均城市道路面积(m²)	0.06
	r₇中小学生数(人)	s₇万人中小学生数(人)	0.07
资源供给	r₈能源消费量(万t标准煤)	s₈人均能源消耗量(t)	0.07
资源供给	r₉城市供水总量(万m³)	s₉人均城市供水量(m³/人)	0.10
生态环境	r₁₀公园绿地面积(万m²)	s₁₀人均公园绿地面积(m²)	0.10
	r₁₁生活垃圾产生量(万t)	s₁₁人均生活垃圾产生量(t/人)	0.06
	r₁₂废水排放总量(亿t)	s₁₂人均废水排放量(t)	0.06

城市	首次出台人才政策时间	力度较大人才政策出台时间	最低学历要求	政策
成都	2017/07	2019/06	中专	I
济南	2016/06	2020/04	无门槛	I
深圳	2010/10	2018/10	大专	II、III
西安	2017/03	2017/03	中专	I
广州	2016/04	2019/01	本科	I
长沙	2017/06	2019/09	中专	II
天津	2018/05	2018/01	本科	II
武汉	2017/10	2019/02	大专	III
郑州	2017/07	2020/09	中专	II
杭州	2015/11	2019/04	大专	I
南京	2017/07	2020/05	大专	I
东莞	2016/01	2020/09	大专	II
苏州	2016/11	2020/12	无门槛	I
合肥	2015/11	2020/09	大专	II
佛山	2017/12	2018/10	大专	III
厦门	2016/02	2018/09	大专	I、IV
北京	2010/04	2018/02	积分	III
南宁	2011/12	2020/06	大专	I
贵阳	2016/12	2019/05	大专	II
青岛	2016/10	2018/06	大专	II、III
福州	2013/01	2020/12	无门槛	I
重庆	2017/04	2017/08	大专	IV
沈阳	2017/08	2017/08	中专	II、IV
上海	2015/09	2020/09	积分	I
宁波	2015/08	2018/11	中专	II、III
昆明	2014/01	2021/08	无门槛	I
南昌	2013/06	2020/04	无门槛	I
太原	2017/07	2020/05	中专	II、IV
大连	2015/03	2020/10	大专	II
长春	2017/09	2020/06	中专	IV
哈尔滨	2017/02	2020/09	大专	II
石家庄	2015/05	2019/03	无门槛	I

变量	参数	标准误差	t	P
W	-2.5817	0.7135	-3.6186	0.0006
G	10.3121	3.4592	2.9811	0.0041
S	15.3851	4.4751	3.4379	0.0011
B	-110.3419	23.9490	-4.6074	< 0.001
SS	-57.4443	9.1218	-6.2975	< 0.001
PS	-9.5266	3.3418	-2.8508	0.0059
R²	0.8904
调整R²	0.8745
F值	83.9713
P	< 0.001
N	72

变量	参数	标准误差	t	P
W	-1.7703	0.7697	-2.3000	0.0247
B	-128.7726	23.4938	-5.4811	< 0.001
SS	-85.1963	7.0772	-12.0382	< 0.001
PS	-17.7908	3.0074	-5.9157	< 0.001
R²	0.8581
调整R²	0.8427
F值	96.8241
P	< 0.001
N	72

要素	北京	上海	广州	深圳
人均城市综合用水量(m³/人) (2018年现状)	95~155 (89.13)	200~265 (126.03)	160~215 (166.48)	160~215 (137.79)
千人床位数(张/千人) (2018年现状)	6.03 (5.4)	6.03 (6.07)	6.03 (5.77)	6.03 (3.34)
中学教师负担学生数(人) (2018年现状)	13.5 (8)	13.5 (10)	13.5 (12)	13.5(6)
小学教师负担学生数(人) (2018年现状)	19 (14)	19 (14)	19 (19)	19 (31)