基于Budyko假设和分形理论的水沙变化归因识别——以北洛河流域为例

doi:10.11821/dlxb202201006

地理学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 77 ›› Issue (1): 79-92.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202201006

基于Budyko假设和分形理论的水沙变化归因识别——以北洛河流域为例

薛帆¹(), 张晓萍¹^,²(), 张橹³, 刘宝元¹, 杨勤科⁴, 易海杰², 何亮¹, 邹亚东¹, 贺洁¹, 许小明¹, 吕渡²

1.西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,杨凌 712100
2.中国科学院、教育部水土保持与生态环境研究中心,杨凌 712100
3.澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织,澳大利亚堪培拉 2601
4.西北大学城市与环境学院,西安 710127

收稿日期:2021-04-30 修回日期:2021-11-23 出版日期:2022-01-25 发布日期:2022-03-25
通讯作者: 张晓萍(1971-), 女, 河南焦作人, 博士, 研究员, 研究方向为土地利用变化及水土保持。E-mail: zhangxp@ms.iswc.ac.cn
作者简介:薛帆(1997-), 女, 山西太原人, 硕士生, 研究方向为水土保持及生态水文。E-mail: xf1226@nwafu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41877083);国家自然科学基金项目(41440012);国家自然科学基金项目(41230852)

Attribution recognition of streamflow and sediment changes based on the Budyko hypothesis and fractal theory: A case study in the Beiluo River Basin

XUE Fan¹(), ZHANG Xiaoping¹^,²(), ZHANG Lu³, LIU Baoyuan¹, YANG Qinke⁴, YI Haijie², HE Liang¹, ZOU Yadong¹, HE Jie¹, XU Xiaoming¹, LYU Du²

1. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dry Land Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, CAS and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China
3. Land and Water CSIRO, Canberra, 2601, Australia
4. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwestern University, Xi'an 710127, China

Received:2021-04-30 Revised:2021-11-23 Published:2022-01-25 Online:2022-03-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41877083);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41440012);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41230852)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球气候变化及人类活动深刻影响了区域水文过程,进行水沙变化归因识别对流域生态保护和高质量发展尤为重要。基于Budyko假设和分形理论,采用弹性系数法,对北洛河流域上（丘陵沟壑区）、中（土石山林—高塬沟壑区）、下游（渭北旱塬农区）3种不同地貌和植被类型区1959—2019年的水、沙通量变化进行归因分析。结果表明,北洛河上、中、下游径流量均显著减少,由20世纪60年代的35 mm、32 mm、34 mm,减少到21世纪10年代的19 mm、24 mm、6 mm,60 a减少率分别为0.3 mm a^-1、0.2 mm a^-1、0.4 mm a^-1。上游输沙量极显著减少,中游降低趋势不显著,下游显著减少,由20世纪60年代的99×10⁶ t、8×10⁶ t、3×10⁶ t,减少到21世纪10年代的10×10⁶ t、3×10⁶ t、0.3×10⁶ t,60 a减少率分别为1.5×10⁶ t a^-1、0.04×10⁶ t a^-1、0.1×10⁶ t a^-1。20世纪70年代以来,上游径流变化逐渐受人类活动影响,且影响程度逐渐增强,21世纪10年代人类活动贡献率达66.3%;气候变化是中游径流变化的主控因子,21世纪10年代降雨和潜在蒸散发的贡献率分别为77.0%和20.2%;下游径流减少主要为人类活动影响,21世纪10年代其贡献率为64.3%。对比20世纪60年代流域输沙量变化始终受人类活动主导,21世纪10年代人类活动对上、中、下游输沙量减少的贡献率分别为80.7%、59.2%和92.7%。上游人类活动对输沙量减少的贡献中,退耕还林等沟坡措施和沟道工程措施分别为39.0%、42.7%,中、下游人类活动贡献的估算结果反映出高植被覆盖区和农区汲水灌溉对区域水、沙的影响特征。

关键词: Budyko假设, 分形理论, 弹性系数法, 水沙变化归因, 黄土高原

Abstract:

Global climate change and human activities have profoundly affected regional hydrological processes. Attribution recognition of streamflow and sediment change is particularly important to understand the theory and practice of ecological protection and for high-quality development of watersheds. Based on the Budyko hypothesis and fractal theory, we used the elastic coefficient method to analyze the attribution of streamflow and sediment changes in the upper (typical hilly and valley region), middle (earth-rock mountain forest region and tableland region), and lower (Weibei loess tableland agricultural region) portions of the Beiluo River Basin from the 1960s to the 2010s. Results showed that runoff depth in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of Beiluo River decreased significantly from 35, 32, and 34 mm in the 1960s to 19, 24, and 6 mm in the 2010s, with a decrease rate of 0.3, 0.2, and 0.4 mm/a, respectively. The upstream sediment transport decreased significantly, while the sediment transport of the middle reaches decreased insignificantly; the downstream sediment transport also decreased significantly from 99, 8, and 3 million tons in the 1960s to 10, 3, and 0.3 million tons in the 2010s, with decreasing rates of 1.5, 0.04, and 0.1 million t/a, respectively in the 60 years. In contrast to the 1960s, the runoff change in the upstream region has been gradually affected by human activities since the 1970s, and its degree has gradually increased as the contribution rate of human activities in the 2010s reached 66.3%. Runoff variation in the middle reaches was mainly determined by climate change, with the contribution rates of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration being 77.0% and 20.2%, respectively. The decrease of runoff in the downstream region was mainly affected by human activities, and the contribution rate was as high as 64.3% in the 2010s. In contrast to the 1960s, the change of sediment yield in the basin was always dominated by human activities, and the contribution rates of human activities to the reduction of sediment discharge in the upper, middle, and lower reaches in the 2010s were 80.7%, 59.2%, and 92.7%, respectively. Measures such as returning farmland to forests on slope and engineering practices in valley contributed 39.0% and 42.7%, respectively, of the reduction in sediment transport in the upstream region. The estimation results of the contribution of human activities in the middle and lower reaches reflect the response of regional runoff and sediment transport in high vegetation cover areas and in irrigated agricultural areas.

Key words: Budyko hypothesis, fractal theory, elastic coefficient method, attribution identification of streamflow and sediment change, Loess Plateau

薛帆, 张晓萍, 张橹, 刘宝元, 杨勤科, 易海杰, 何亮, 邹亚东, 贺洁, 许小明, 吕渡. 基于Budyko假设和分形理论的水沙变化归因识别——以北洛河流域为例[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(1): 79-92.

XUE Fan, ZHANG Xiaoping, ZHANG Lu, LIU Baoyuan, YANG Qinke, YI Haijie, HE Liang, ZOU Yadong, HE Jie, XU Xiaoming, LYU Du. Attribution recognition of streamflow and sediment changes based on the Budyko hypothesis and fractal theory: A case study in the Beiluo River Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(1): 79-92.

图/表 7

图1

表1

图2

表2

1959—2019年北洛河流域各区间水文—气候特征值

区间	时期	降雨量(mm)	径流深(mm)	潜在蒸散发(mm)	Φ	ω	弹性系数
区间	时期	降雨量(mm)	径流深(mm)	潜在蒸散发(mm)	Φ	ω	ε_P	$ε E 0$	ε_ω
上游	1960s	519.9	35.0	945.9	1.8	3.29	2.72	-1.72	-0.79
	1970s	455.2	33.7	971.1	2.1	3.27	2.77	-1.77	-0.83
	1980s	448.2	29.9	915.0	2.0	3.68	2.78	-1.78	-0.83
	1990s	441.9	38.0	937.2	2.1	3.22	2.77	1.77	-0.82
	2000s	454.5	22.6	952.8	2.1	3.88	2.80	-1.80	-0.85
	2010s	506.4	18.5	962.4	1.9	4.11	2.78	-1.77	-0.82
中游	1960s	616.9	31.9	977.0	1.6	3.47	2.68	-1.68	-0.77
	1970s	574.2	19.4	1004.0	1.8	3.62	2.73	-1.73	-0.80
	1980s	590.3	23.2	929.7	1.6	3.91	2.71	1.71	-0.79
	1990s	528.4	19.9	984.6	1.9	3.23	2.73	-1.73	-0.80
	2000s	570.0	16.8	1004.8	1.8	3.76	2.74	-1.74	-0.81
	2010s	588.4	24.4	995.9	1.7	3.49	2.71	-1.71	-0.79
下游	1960s	665.7	34.4	1007.5	1.5	3.69	2.68	-1.68	-0.77
	1970s	618.6	18.1	1050.2	1.7	3.95	2.74	-1.74	-0.81
	1980s	640.9	29.6	963.8	1.5	3.91	2.69	-1.69	-0.78
	1990s	566.5	12.4	1045.1	1.9	3.92	2.76	-1.76	-0.82
	2000s	606.9	19.9	1050.0	1.7	4.69	2.78	-1.78	-0.84
	2010s	608.0	6.0	1005.6	1.7	5.66	2.80	-1.80	-0.85

表2

图3

表3

1970s—2010s时期北洛河流域各区间输沙量弹性系数

区间	时期	输沙模数减少量(t/(km²a))	输沙弹性系数
区间	时期	输沙模数减少量(t/(km²a))	η_R	η_ωc	η_P	$η E 0$	η_ωR
上游	1970s	3462	0.01	0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.03
	1980s	7130	0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	-0.02
	1990s	1952	-8.0 $×$ 10^-5	3.0 $×$ 10^-6	-2.0 $×$ 10^-4	1.0 $×$ 10^-4	3.0 $×$ 10^-6
	2000s	10376	2.0 $×$ 10^-5	1.0 $×$ 10^-5	5.0 $×$ 10^-5	-3.0 $×$ 10^-5	-6.0 $×$ 10^-6
	2010s	12296	2.0 $×$ 10^-5	5.0 $×$ 10^-6	5.0 $×$ 10^-5	-3.0 $×$ 10^-5	-5.0 $×$ 10^-6
中游	1970s	2251	0.04	0.01	0.10	-0.06	-0.03
	1980s	4040	0.06	0.01	0.16	-0.10	-0.05
	1990s	1149	-0.02	0.01	-0.07	0.04	0.02
	2000s	5163	0.05	0.01	0.13	-0.08	-0.04
	2010s	6360	0.06	0.01	0.15	-0.10	-0.04
下游	1970s	838	0.004	0.55	0.01	-0.01	-0.003
	1980s	2097	0.01	0.08	0.02	-0.01	-0.01
	1990s	1807	0.01	0.15	0.03	-0.02	-0.01
	2000s	3508	0.02	0.01	0.04	-0.03	-0.01
	2010s	4252	0.02	0.06	0.05	-0.03	-0.01

表3

图4

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流域区间	面积^a(km²)	降雨量^b (mm)	温度^b (℃)	潜在蒸发^b(mm)	径流深^c (mm)	输沙量^c (10⁶ t)	平均含沙量^c(kg m^-3)	林草植被盖度^[31](%)
流域区间	面积^a(km²)	降雨量^b (mm)	温度^b (℃)	潜在蒸发^b(mm)	径流深^c (mm)	输沙量^c (10⁶ t)	平均含沙量^c(kg m^-3)	1970年	1980年	1990年	2000年	2010年	2019年
上游	7325	466 (NS; -)	9.3 (NS; +)	951 (NS; +)	35, 19 (^***; -0.3)	99, 10 (^***; -1.5)	37, 7 (^***; -5)	59.9	59.2	64.9	78.7	81.3	81.2
中游	9855	536 (NS; -)	9.8 (NS; +)	997 (NS; +)	32, 24 (^***; -0.2)	8, 3 (NS;-0.04)	3, 1 (NS;-0.02)	77.6	76.6	76.2	81.8	85.3	89.9
下游	8465	565 (NS; -)	10.5 (NS; +)	1020 (NS; +)	34,6 (^***; -0.4)	2, 0.3 (^**; -0.1)	1, 0.5 (NS; -0.2)	53.0	53.6	52.1	55.3	61.1	62.5

基于Budyko假设和分形理论的水沙变化归因识别——以北洛河流域为例

Attribution recognition of streamflow and sediment changes based on the Budyko hypothesis and fractal theory: A case study in the Beiluo River Basin

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