气候变化影响下北海公园冰上运动季的特征与情景模拟

doi:10.11821/dlxb202201003

地理学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 77 ›› Issue (1): 35-50.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202201003

• 气候变化与冰冻圈文化服务 • 上一篇下一篇

气候变化影响下北海公园冰上运动季的特征与情景模拟

刘浩龙¹^,²(), 周宇¹^,², 刘俊³, 戴君虎¹^,²(), 葛全胜¹^,², 齐晓波¹

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
3.四川大学旅游学院,成都 610065

收稿日期:2021-01-21 修回日期:2021-11-11 出版日期:2022-01-25 发布日期:2022-03-25
通讯作者: 戴君虎(1968-), 男, 陕西蓝田人, 博士, 研究员, 主要从事物候学和全球变化影响研究。E-mail: daijh@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:刘浩龙(1976-), 男, 江苏连云港人, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事全球变化与旅游地理研究。E-mail: liuhl@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2018YFA0606102);国家自然科学基金项目(41771163);国家自然科学基金项目(41871033);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA19040101)

Characteristics and scenario simulation of the ice-sports season in Beijing Beihai Park under climate change

LIU Haolong¹^,²(), ZHOU Yu¹^,², LIU Jun³, DAI Junhu¹^,²(), GE Quansheng¹^,², QI Xiaobo¹

1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Tourism School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China

Received:2021-01-21 Revised:2021-11-11 Published:2022-01-25 Online:2022-03-25
Supported by:
National Key R&D Program(2018YFA0606102);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771163);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41871033);Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA19040101)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

北海公园冰上运动是北京传统体育文化遗产的重要组成内容以及冬季休闲旅游的代表性符号,强化其气候变化影响与适应研究,对于应对全球变化的挑战、践行“大力发展冰雪经济”的指示具有重要意义。本文从多源文献中提取分析了其冰场多年启闭日期（间接指示冰层厚15 cm）的变化特征,并结合气温器测数据以及4种气候情景数据（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）,利用留一交叉验证法探讨了不同温度指标和拟合方程的预测效果差异,进而对未来冰上运动季的变化、潜在影响与适应对策进行分析。结果表明：① 1989—2018年冰上运动季始日、末日和持续长度的均值分别为1月1日、2月5日和36 d,对应的趋势表现为不显著的推迟（1.00 d/10a）、提前（-0.77 d/10a）和延长（1.11 d/10a）,时序变化可区分为1989—2000年、2001—2013年和2014—2018年3个阶段。② 冰上运动季始、末日分别对其日期前59 d的日最低温和前94 d的日最高温有较好响应,利用这两个指标和玻尔兹曼函数可更好预测冰上运动季变化。③ 2021—2099年冰上运动季始日、末日和持续长度的均值分别较1989—2018年晚1 d、早1 d和缩短2 d,3个指标变幅一致缩小,对应的0.14 d/10a、-0.21 d/10a和-0.34 d/10a的趋势均达到0.01的显著性水平。④ 未来79 a内冬季两大节庆中元旦冰上运动的适宜性要大于春节,其中春节的适宜性在4种气候情景下相差不大,而元旦的适宜性则在4种情景下有一定差别。⑤ 在相关预估结果上,BCC-CSM2-MR、CanESM-5和UKESM这3种区域气候模式并没有太大差异,而热岛效应影响尚待深入研究。⑥ 为了在气候变暖背景下促进体旅融合消费、保障冰上运动产业高质量发展,运营企业应采取强化游客安全保障、扩展旅游产品谱系、购买冰量保险等全方位主动适应措施,研究者应加强研究气候变化影响的复杂性、改进旅游流的预测效果,而管理部门应大力推动产业风险管理报告的编制,充分重视气候变化风险的动态评估。

关键词: 气候变化, 北海公园, 湖冰物候期, 冰上运动季, 特征, 情景模拟, 北京

Abstract:

The ice sports in Beihai Park are one of the main elements of physical culture heritage and the representative leisure symbol during winter in Beijing. Enhancing the research on impacts of global climate change and appropriate adaptation is of great importance to its responses to the challenge of global climate change and practices of vigorously developing ice-snow economy. We extracted and analyzed the opening and closing information of the park rink over the past decades from document archives. Then, on the basis of temperature observational data and four climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) data, we compared the prediction effects of different temperature parameters and fitting equations by using the leave-one-out cross validation, analyzed the projected changes in ice-sports phenology characteristics from 2021 to 2099 and their potential impacts on the tourists, and recommended the following countermeasures for the tourism to deal with climate change risks. The conclusions show that: (1) The beginning date, final date and duration of ice-sports season in the park during the past 30 years, whose mean values were January 1, February 5, and 36 days, respectively, had the corresponding insignificant trends of 1.00 d/10a, -0.77 d/10a, and 1.11 d/10a. The years of variations in ice-sports season can be divided into three periods of 1989-2000, 2001-2013 and 2014-2018. (2) The beginning and final dates of ice-sports season respond sensitively to 59-day daily minimum temperature before the former and 94-day daily maximum temperature before the latter, respectively. Furthermore, the two phenological dates can be predicted well by using Boltzmann function fitting and these two temperature parameters. (3) The estimated average beginning date, final date, and duration of the ice-sports season in 2021-2099 will be one day later, one day earlier, and two days shorter than those in the last 30 years, respectively. The variation amplitudes of these three dates will decrease, while their trends will be significant. (4) In the future 79 years, the climatic suitability for ice sports during the New Year's Day vocation will be better than that in the Spring Festival. Under four climate change scenarios, climatic suitability for ice sports in the Spring Festival will be not different greatly, while the climatic suitability in the other festivals will be much different. (5) Differences of the ice-sports-season predictions on the basis of three regional climate models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM-5, and UKESM) are very limited, while the impact of the heat island effect is unclear. (6) In order to better adapt to tourists' potential changes in destination, travel time, and activity types under global warming, rink operators should strengthen safety management, develop new tourism products, and purchase ice insurance. In addition, researchers should focus more on the complexity of climate change impacts and improve the prediction effect of tourism flows; the departments concerned should vigorously promote the compilation of risk-management reports and pay great attention to the dynamic assessment of climate change risks.

Key words: climate change, Beihai Park, lake ice phenology, ice sports season, characteristics, scenario simulation, Beijing

刘浩龙, 周宇, 刘俊, 戴君虎, 葛全胜, 齐晓波. 气候变化影响下北海公园冰上运动季的特征与情景模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(1): 35-50.

LIU Haolong, ZHOU Yu, LIU Jun, DAI Junhu, GE Quansheng, QI Xiaobo. Characteristics and scenario simulation of the ice-sports season in Beijing Beihai Park under climate change[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(1): 35-50.

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函数形态	日气温指标	始日				末日
		训练集		验证集		训练集		验证集
		RMSE	NRMSE(%)	RMSE	NRMSE(%)	RMSE	NRMSE(%)	RMSE	NRMSE(%)
线性函数	最低温	5.9807	19.13	6.1783	19.51	2.8954	4.26	3.0536	4.41
	均温	5.9724	19.11	6.1795	19.52	2.7161	3.99	2.8898	4.17
	最高温	6.2854	20.11	6.4989	20.52	2.6747	3.93	2.8549	4.12
幂函数	最低温	6.0070	19.22	6.0896	19.23	2.8963	4.26	2.9481	4.26
	均温	5.9824	19.14	6.0629	19.15	2.7148	3.99	2.7634	3.99
	最高温	6.2865	20.12	6.3671	20.11	2.6720	3.93	2.7197	3.93
指数函数	最低温	6.0088	19.23	6.1007	19.27	2.8946	4.25	3.0413	4.39
	均温	5.9821	19.14	6.1130	19.31	2.7138	3.99	2.8458	4.11
	最高温	6.2846	20.10	6.5087	20.55	2.6704	3.93	2.8466	4.11
对数函数	最低温	6.0663	19.41	6.0566	19.13	2.9571	4.35	2.9476	4.26
	均温	6.0587	19.39	6.0498	19.11	2.7741	4.08	2.7649	3.99
	最高温	6.3754	24.52	6.3666	24.17	2.7318	4.02	2.7224	3.93
逻辑斯蒂函数	最低温	5.5549	17.78	5.6254	17.77	2.7908	4.11	3.0321	4.38
	均温	5.9413	19.01	5.9318	18.73	2.8004	4.12	3.0072	4.34
	最高温	6.4670	20.69	6.4879	20.49	2.7386	4.02	2.9798	4.3
玻尔兹曼函数	最低温	5.5531	17.76	5.5585	17.55	2.9265	4.32	2.8322	4.11
	均温	5.9413	19.01	5.9318	18.73	2.8543	4.23	2.7821	4.05
	最高温	6.4668	20.69	6.4921	20.50	2.4642	3.65	2.7296	3.97

指标	气候模式	21世纪
指标	气候模式	20年代	30年代	40年代	50年代	60年代	70年代	80年代	90年代
始日(月/日)	BCC-CSM2-MR	1/2	1/2	1/2	1/3	1/2	1/3	1/3	1/3
	CanESM-5	12/29	12/30	12/31	1/1	1/2	1/2	1/2	1/2
	UKESM	12/28	12/31	12/31	1/1	1/3	1/2	1/2	1/2
末日(月/日)	BCC-CSM2-MR	2/5	2/5	2/5	2/5	2/4	2/4	2/4	2/4
	CanESM-5	2/3	2/3	2/3	2/3	2/3	2/3	2/3	2/3
	UKESM	2/3	2/3	2/3	2/3	2/3	2/3	2/3	2/3
持续长度(d)	BCC-CSM2-MR	35	33	33	33	33	32	33	32
	CanESM-5	36	35	34	33	32	32	32	32
	UKESM	37	35	34	33	32	32	32	32

气候变化影响下北海公园冰上运动季的特征与情景模拟

Characteristics and scenario simulation of the ice-sports season in Beijing Beihai Park under climate change

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参考文献 54

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气候情景	元旦假期			春节假期
气候情景	都能开展	开展1~2 d	都不能开展	都能开展	开展1~6 d	都不能开展
SSP1-2.6	15	64	0	25	17	37
SSP2-4.5	4	75	0	27	13	39
SSP3-7.0	4	75	0	26	15	38
SSP5-8.5	2	77	0	25	15	39
平均	6	73	0	26	15	38

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