多情景粮食安全底线约束下的中国耕地保护弹性空间

doi:10.11821/dlxb2022003014

地理学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 77 ›› Issue (3): 697-713.doi: 10.11821/dlxb2022003014

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多情景粮食安全底线约束下的中国耕地保护弹性空间

梁鑫源¹^,²(), 金晓斌¹^,²^,³(), 孙瑞¹, 韩博¹, 任婕¹, 周寅康¹^,²^,³

1.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210023
2.自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室,南京 210023
3.南京大学自然资源研究院,南京 210023

收稿日期:2020-11-11 修回日期:2021-07-28 出版日期:2022-03-25 发布日期:2022-05-25
通讯作者: 金晓斌(1974-), 男, 甘肃兰州人, 博士, 教授, 博导, 主要从事土地利用与规划研究。E-mail: jinxb@nju.edu.cn
作者简介:梁鑫源(1996-), 男, 河南洛阳人, 博士生, 主要从事土地资源可持续利用研究。E-mail: liang_xiny@foxmail.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目(19ZDA096);国家自然科学基金项目(41971234);国家自然科学基金项目(41971235);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX21_0039)

China's resilience-space for cultivated land protection under the restraint of multi-scenario food security bottom line

LIANG Xinyuan¹^,²(), JIN Xiaobin¹^,²^,³(), SUN Rui¹, HAN Bo¹, REN Jie¹, ZHOU Yinkang¹^,²^,³

1. School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
2. Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China
3. Natural Resources Research Center, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China

Received:2020-11-11 Revised:2021-07-28 Published:2022-03-25 Online:2022-05-25
Supported by:
National Social Science Fund of China(19ZDA096);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971234);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971235);Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Project of Jiangsu Province(KYCX21_0039)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

科学解析中国耕地数量保多少与如何保等问题对保障国家粮食安全与资源环境可持续发展具有重要意义。面向共享社会经济路径（SSPs）的多情景粮食安全底线约束,本文试图利用耕地保有量、人口预测、粮食需求估算、单产提升潜力衰减等模型方法,依据产能特征—健康状态—耕作条件—利用水平的多维度耕地保护紧迫性评估框架,通过耦合时间序列的数量边界控制与空间尺度的区域规则约束刻画出中国的耕地保护弹性空间。在满足个人基本营养安全与作物单产条件干扰变量恒定的假设前提下,研究发现：① 中国多情景耕地保有量在2020—2100年间呈下降态势,现有耕地数量足以维持长期的粮食安全,但短期内则仅勉强达到理论粮食安全的临界区间1.40×10⁸~1.59×10⁸ hm²。② 不同维度耕地保护紧迫性在九大农业区划内呈现差异化分布特征,自然条件优越且适宜耕作的黄淮海平原区与长江中下游地区是综合紧迫性高值地块集聚区域。③ 可持续情景与区域冲突情景分别代表粮食安全底线约束下的最小与最大耕地保有量情景,在当前国际形势下,中国应保证短期（2035年内）可休耕量不高于9.29%。④ 基于时空耦合划定的耕地保护弹性空间可分为优先保护、严格管控、休养生息、战略储备、整治修复和特殊保护6类,不同空间的耕地保护弹性强度、目标与任务各有侧重。整体而言,耕地保护弹性空间的划定思路有助于农业结构调整、休耕政策完善等耕地空间规划体系构建,对中国耕地保护制度转型具有借鉴价值。

关键词: 粮食安全, 多情景复合, 中国耕地保护, 弹性空间, 时空耦合

Abstract:

Under new international and domestic situations, scientific analysis of China's cultivated land quantity and its protection ways is of great significance for ensuring national food security and sustainable resources and environment development. This paper analyzes the amount of cultivated land under the constraints of multi-scenario food security within shared social-economic paths (SSPs), using model methods such as cultivated land retention, population forecast, food demand estimation, and yield potential decay. According to the multi-dimensional urgency assessment framework based on productivity characteristics-health status-farming, China's resilience-space for cultivated land protection is delineated by coupling the quantitative boundary control of time series and the regional rules of spatial scale. On the premise of satisfying the assumption of individual basic nutrition security and the constant variables of crop yield conditions, we obtain the following findings. (1) China's multi-scenario cultivated land retention will decline from 2020 to 2100. Existing cultivated land is sufficient to maintain long-term food security, but it barely reaches the critical range of theoretical food security (140 million-159 million hm²) in the short term. (2) The urgency of cultivated land protection in different dimensions presents different distribution characteristics within the nine agricultural zones. The North China Plain and the Middle-lower Yangtze River, which have superior natural conditions suitable for farming, are clusters of high-value plots of comprehensive urgency. (3) The sustainable scenario (SSP1) and the regional conflict scenario (SSP3) represent the minimum and maximum cultivated land retention scenarios under the constraints of food security bottom line. Given the current international situation, China should ensure that the short-term (before 2035) fallow land is not higher than 9.29%. (4) The resilience-space of cultivated land protection delineated based on time and space coupling can be divided into priority protection area, strict control area, rest area, strategic reserve area, comprehensive consolidation area, and special protection area. The flexibility, objectives and tasks of cultivated land protection in different divisions have their priorities. Overall, delineating resilience-space for cultivated land protection facilitates the establishment of spatial planning systems for cultivated land, such as agricultural structure adjustment and fallow policy improvement. This study provide a reference for research on the transformation of China's cultivated land protection system.

Key words: food security, multiple scenarios, China's cultivated land protection, resilience-space, spatiotemporal coupling

梁鑫源, 金晓斌, 孙瑞, 韩博, 任婕, 周寅康. 多情景粮食安全底线约束下的中国耕地保护弹性空间[J]. 地理学报, 2022, 77(3): 697-713.

LIANG Xinyuan, JIN Xiaobin, SUN Rui, HAN Bo, REN Jie, ZHOU Yinkang. China's resilience-space for cultivated land protection under the restraint of multi-scenario food security bottom line[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(3): 697-713.

图/表 8

表1

耕地保护紧迫性评价体系

维度	指标	内容	属性
产能特征 (A)	耕地质量等别 (0.311)	依据净初级生产力(NPP)对生态系统服务价值当量因子进行调整获取食物生产服务价值,表征耕地生产能力	+
	食物生产价值 (0.147)	基于土地利用现状调查耕地图斑从气候、地形、土壤、农业基础设施等方面综合评定,反映耕地质量与生产能力	+
	作物生长状况 (0.103)	基于连续时间序列NDVI卫星遥感数据采用最大值合成法生成年度植被指数,衡量区域植被覆盖与生长状况,利用耕地掩膜提取区域农作物NDVI	+
	农田生产潜力 (0.439)	采用GAEZ(Global Agro-Ecological Zones)模型,综合考虑光、温、水、土壤、地形、CO₂浓度、病虫害、农业气候限制等多方面因素,估算耕地生产潜力	+
健康状态 (B)	土壤蓄水能力 (0.375)	通过测算土壤含沙量获取,表征经人类活动干扰后的表层土壤沙化状态,含沙比例越大保水性能越差	-
	土壤熟化程度 (0.182)	由土壤容重表示,衡量人类生产活动与耕作管理措施对土壤耕性的改善程度,容重值越接近1熟化程度越高	+
	土壤质地 (0.241)	通常为不同大小直径的矿物颗粒的组合状况,表征土壤通气、保肥、保水等性状优劣	+
	土壤有机碳含量 (0.202)	通过微生物作用所形成的腐殖质含量,衡量土壤养分含量及提供作物生产所需有机质的能力	+
耕作条件 (C)	坡度 (0.489)	利用高程数据通过坡度分析工具获取,表征地势对耕地利用的影响限制程度	-
	地形起伏度 (0.186)	通过影响耕地面积、耕地生产条件、农业灾害、生产成本与产出等因素影响耕地生产潜力	-
	距河流距离 (0.168)	通过欧氏距离工具获取耕地距河流的空间距离,表征灌溉可达性与水资源供给能力	-
	距居民点距离 (0.157)	通过欧氏距离工具获取耕地距农村居民点的空间距离,表征耕作可达性与便捷性	-
利用水平 (D)	细碎化程度 (0.219)	由耕地斑块面积、斑块密度、斑块聚集度指数赋权综合测度,表征耕地离散程度与资源利用格局	-
	规模化率 (0.289)	以高标准农田建设标准为基础,达到规模化经营的耕地面积占比,反映耕地集约经营状况	+
	农田熟制 (0.320)	利用S-G滤波方法对旬NDVI数据进行去噪,重建作物生长植被指数曲线,通过峰值特征点反演提取	+
	基础设施完备度 (0.172)	单位面积田间道路与灌溉沟渠长度,表征以田间道路和农电水利建设工程等为主的农业基础设施配套状况	+

表1

图1

图2

图3

表2

图4

图5

图6

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农业区划	不同维度紧迫性				综合紧迫性
农业区划	产能特征	健康状态	耕作条件	利用水平	综合紧迫性
东北平原区	0.2035	0.2461	0.9769	0.2229	1.6497
北方干旱半干旱区	0.1396	0.2496	0.9659	0.2167	1.5718
黄淮海平原区	0.2792	0.2476	0.9774	0.2325	1.7367
黄土高原区	0.1639	0.2479	0.9467	0.1833	1.5418
青藏高原区	0.0921	0.2612	0.9107	0.2007	1.4649
长江中下游地区	0.3127	0.2407	0.9709	0.2113	1.7360
四川盆地及周边地区	0.2118	0.2718	0.9291	0.2262	1.6388
云贵高原区	0.1400	0.2619	0.9191	0.2150	1.5362
华南区	0.1901	0.2402	0.9535	0.1981	1.5826

多情景粮食安全底线约束下的中国耕地保护弹性空间

China's resilience-space for cultivated land protection under the restraint of multi-scenario food security bottom line

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