中国社会升级的测度与时空格局及驱动机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb202112012

地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (12): 3043-3060.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202112012

中国社会升级的测度与时空格局及驱动机制

黄耿志¹^,²(), 周进³

1.中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州 510275
2.南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海）,珠海 519082
3.广东省科学院广州地理研究所,广州 510070

收稿日期:2020-11-08 修回日期:2021-04-29 出版日期:2021-12-25 发布日期:2022-02-25
作者简介:黄耿志(1986-), 男, 博士, 副教授, 中国地理学会会员(S110010871M), 研究方向为城市化、非正规经济和劳动力地理。E-mail: hgzhi3@mail.sysu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42122007);国家自然科学基金项目(41930646);广东省科学院建设国内一流研究机构行动专项资金项目(2019GDASYL-0104004);广州市科技计划项目(202102020272)

Measurement, spatiotemporal pattern and driving mechanism of social upgrading in China

HUANG Gengzhi¹^,²(), ZHOU Jin³

1. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
2. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, Guangdong, China
3. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510070, China

Received:2020-11-08 Revised:2021-04-29 Published:2021-12-25 Online:2022-02-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42122007);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41930646);Guangdong Academy of Sciences Project of Science and Technology Development(2019GDASYL-0104004);Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou(202102020272)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

社会升级是指提高劳动者就业质量并保障和改善其作为社会参与者的基本权利的过程,是近年来国际经济地理研究出现的一个新兴方向。针对国内地理学聚焦于经济升级、缺乏关注社会升级的研究现状,构建了测度社会升级的综合指标体系,采用空间分析方法和数量模型揭示了20世纪90年代中期以来中国社会升级的时空格局、区域差异及驱动因素。研究发现：① 1996—2017年中国社会升级指数从0.358增长至0.445;② 东部地区是社会升级的主要区域,其中又以京津冀、长三角、珠三角等三大城市群为核心升级区;③ 社会升级在全国整体和地区尺度的区域差异有所缩小,省际发展分化速率得到一定缓解,中西部省份逐步追赶东部省份,重庆的发展引人注目,但东部沿海仍是带动中国社会升级的主导区;④ 经济发展、产业创新、经济全球化、劳动力技能和政府治理等因素共同影响了区域社会升级,反映了社会升级受全球和地方因素综合影响的过程。研究认为,经济增长快速并非一定带来社会升级,促进社会升级需要提升经济发展的质量。本文为在宏观层面分析社会升级提供了量化方法,对促进认识社会升级的发生机制及其与经济升级、经济全球化的关系起到补充作用。最后提出了促进中国经济和社会“双升级”的建议以及未来研究启示。

关键词: 社会升级, 经济升级, 就业质量, 区域差异, 高质量发展

Abstract:

Social upgrading refers to the process of improvement in the quality of employment and securing basic rights of workers as social actors. It is an emerging hot research field of labour geographies in recent years. However, domestic human geography research has been mainly focused on economic upgrading with little attention paid to social upgrading. This paper fills the research gap by establishing a comprehensive index to quantitatively measure social upgrading and revealing the spatiotemporal pattern and driving factors of social upgrading in China since the mid-1990s, using spatial analysis methods and quantitative models. Main findings of the paper include: (1) Social upgrading in China was improved, with its social upgrading index increasing from 0.358 to 0.445 during 1996-2017. (2) The eastern coastal area is the main upgrading area, especially the three urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta and Peral River Delta. (3) Regional differences of social upgrading among the eastern, central and western regions were narrowed and the differentiation of development rates was alleviated. The central and western regions have been catching up with their eastern partner, despite that the coastal provinces will continue to be the leading areas for social upgrading in China. (4) Factors, including economic development, industrial innovation, economic globalization, labor skill level and state governance, have significant effects in driving regional social upgrading. The effects of these factors are not simply positive or negative in terms of their relationship with social upgrading, suggesting the complexity of social upgrading processes and global-local impacts on it. It is argued that economic growth does not necessarily bring about social upgrading. Rather, promoting social upgrading depends on the improvement in the quality of economic development. The paper contributes to the literature by providing a quantitative framework for analyzing social upgrading at the macro-level and advancing the understanding of geographical differences and driving mechanisms of social upgrading. The paper concludes by proposing some policies for promoting social upgrading and high-quality development in China and discussing its implications for future research.

Key words: social upgrading, economic upgrading, employment quality, regional differences, high-quality development

黄耿志, 周进. 中国社会升级的测度与时空格局及驱动机制[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(12): 3043-3060.

HUANG Gengzhi, ZHOU Jin. Measurement, spatiotemporal pattern and driving mechanism of social upgrading in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(12): 3043-3060.

图/表 8

表1

表2

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表3

社会升级驱动因素回归模型估计结果

解释变量	全国		东部		中部		西部
	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6	模型7	模型8
	FE	OLS	PCSE	OLS	PCSE	OLS	PCSE	OLS
gdp_r	-0.0034^***	-0.0037^***	-0.0026^***	-0.0026^***	-0.0019^**	-0.0019^*	-0.0029^***	-0.0029
s_gdp	-0.0970	-0.0694^*	0.1312	0.1312	0.0188	0.0187	-0.2992^***	-0.2992^**
t_gdp	-0.0509	-0.0100	0.1929^*	0.1929	-0.2385^***	-0.2385^***	-0.1973^**	-0.1973^*
p_t	0.0399	0.1550^**	0.1181	0.1181	0.1941	0.1941	-0.0511	-0.0511
cpi	0.0007^**	0.0007^**	0.0018^***	0.0018^***	0.0013	0.0013^*	0.0011^***	0.0011^**
uc_r	-0.0464^**	-0.1022^***	-0.0508	-0.0508	0.1187^***	0.1187	-0.0740^***	-0.0740^**
fa_gdp	0.0510^***	0.0409^***	0.0346^***	0.0346^**	0.0281^*	0.0281^**	0.0447^**	0.0447^*
total_p	0.0072^***	0.0083^***	0.0075^***	0.0075^**	0.0068^**	0.0068	0.0045^***	0.0045^**
tax_gdp	-0.0636	-0.1367	-0.3956^*	-0.3956	-0.2868	-0.2868	0.2381	0.2381
rd_gdp	0.9461^***	1.0412^***	0.7624^***	0.7624^**	-1.0957	-1.0957	0.4175	0.4175
pat_rd	0.0488^***	0.0619^***	0.0144	0.0144	-0.0318	-0.0318	0.0483^**	0.0483^**
tm_per	-6.58E-07	4.27E-07	-7.09E-07	-7.09E-07	4.45E-06	4.45E-06	-1.79E-05^***	-1.79E-05^***
new_inc	-0.0429	-0.0164	0.0583^*	0.0583	-0.0989^***	-0.0989^***	-0.0213	-0.0213
exp_gdp	0.0010	0.0539^***	0.0003	0.0003	-0.2496^**	-0.2496	-0.0761	-0.0761
exp_t	0.1829	-0.0647	0.2058^***	0.2058^**	1.9373^**	1.9373^**	1.2498	1.2498
fdi	2.48E-08	1.33E-08	5.57E-09	5.57E-09	1.93E-07^*	1.93E-07^*	6.68E-07^***	6.68E-07^**
jc_r	4.7713^***	3.5663^**	6.4832^***	6.4831^***	2.2433	2.2433	0.1182	0.1182
he_r	-1.9714^***	-1.7024^***	-3.4209^***	-3.4209^**	-3.0177^***	-3.0177^***	-1.1458^**	-1.1458
fp_gdp	-7.0470^***	-5.9210^***	-9.5921^***	-9.5921^**	-6.9995^***	-6.9995^***	-0.2289	-0.2289
gr_gdp	0.3494^**	0.1000	0.4985^*	0.4985^*	0.6164^***	0.6164^**	0.0958	0.0958
c	0.6820^***	0.7180^***	-0.9122	0.3277^**	-7.6931^**	0.3743^**	-3.0584	0.7221^***
N	682	682	242	242	176	176	264	264
R²		0.8734	0.9368	0.9368	0.8844	0.8844	0.8910	0.8910
F	734.92^***

表3

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评价维度	一级指标	二级指标	标准化处理	权重
就业	就业率	就业人数年均增长率(%)	+	0.0413
		第二产业就业率(%)	+	0.0405
		第三产业就业率(%)	+	0.0457
		城镇就业人数/总就业人数(%)	+	0.0396
		城镇职工/总就业人数(%)	+	0.0392
		私营和个体人数/总就业人数(%)	+	0.0394
	就业机会	本期单位登记招聘人数(人)	+	0.0377
	失业率	失业率(%)	-	0.0412
	有酬工作	城镇单位在岗职工平均工资(元)	+	0.0388
	有酬工作	劳动报酬支出占GDP的比例(%)	+	0.0408
	劳动环境	认定工伤人数占总就业人数的比(人/十万人)	-	0.0412
社会保障	社会保障	医保覆盖率(%)	+	0.0481
基本权利	受教育	受大专以上教育就业人数占比(%)	+	0.0396
	无性别歧视	女性就业人数占比(%)	+	0.0411
		就业人员中受大专以上教育男女占比差异	-	0.0414
	参与工会	工会会员数占就业人数比例(%)	+	0.0401
		工会密度(个/万人)	+	0.0151
社会对话	谈判协商	集体争议案件数(件)	-	0.0413
		劳动争议案件密度(件/万人)	-	0.0413
		劳动争议案件调解成功率(%)	+	0.0412
	劳动仲裁	劳动争议仲裁胜诉率(%)	+	0.0455
	工会作用	建立劳动争议委员会的基层工会数占比(%)	+	0.0399
		工会参与调解争议案件成功率(%)	+	0.0401
	经济民主	已实施的合理化建议数(件)	+	0.0408
		职工代表大会密度(个/万人)	+	0.0391

一级变量	二级变量	衡量指标
经济发展	经济增长	GDP增长率(gdp_r)
	经济稳定	居民消费价格指数(cpi)
	经济结构	第二产业增加值占比(s_gdp)
		第三产业增加值占比(t_gdp)
		生产性服务业增加值占第三产业增加值的比重(p_t)
		消费支出占GDP的比重(uc_r)
	质量效益	全社会固定资产投资/GDP(fa_gdp)
		全社会劳动生产率(total_p)
		税收/GDP(tax_gdp)
产业创新	R&D	R&D经费/GDP(rd_gdp)
		发明专利申请授权量与R&D经费之比(件/万元)(pat_rd)
	技术市场	人均技术市场成交额(元/万人)(tm_per)
	新产品	规模以上工业企业新产品销售收入/主营业务收入(new_inc)
经济全球化	出口贸易	出口额占全国出口总额的比重比(exp_t)
		出口额占GDP的比重(exp_gdp)
	FDI	外商投资企业在中国投资额(万美元)(fdi)
劳动技能水平	职业教育	技校学生在校人数/常住人口数(jc_r)
	高等教育	高等学校在学生人数/常住人口数(hc_r)
政府治理	制度质量	地方财政收入中罚没款收入占GDP的比重(fp_gdp)
	政府管制	地方政府财政收入占GDP的比重(gr_gdp)

中国社会升级的测度与时空格局及驱动机制

Measurement, spatiotemporal pattern and driving mechanism of social upgrading in China

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