城市居民对大型活动影响的感知与态度模式——以首届中国国际进口博览会为例

doi:10.11821/dlxb202112011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

大型活动是城市更新和区域经济发展的重要动力,对城市形象和城市经济具有极大的提升和促进作用。以2018年举办的首届中国国际进口博览会为案例,从居民感知的视角分析首届中国国际进口博览会举办过程中居民的社会交换关系,构建“对政府的信任”“未来结果考虑”“积极影响感知”“消极影响感知”“生活质量”和“支持态度”6个变量的关系模型,采用结构方程模型分析模型构建的合理性,验证了上海居民对首届中国国际进口博览会影响的感知及支持态度的影响因素,并探讨了生活质量在居民感知与支持态度之间的中介效应。结果表明：① 对政府的信任与未来结果考虑对居民感知与支持态度具有重要影响,即居民对政府的信任正向影响其对积极影响的感知及支持态度,负向影响居民的消极影响感知;居民的未来结果考虑也正向影响居民的积极影响感知与支持态度,负向影响居民的消极影响感知。② 居民的积极影响感知对生活质量感知和支持态度具有正向影响,居民的消极影响感知对支持态度具有负向影响,但未影响到居民的生活质量感知。③ 居民的生活质量感知在居民感知与支持态度间的中介效应未获得支持。本文对中国国际进口博览会持续健康发展、上海建设国际会展之都等具有一定的启示意义和参考价值。

关键词: 大型活动影响, 居民感知与态度, 政府信任, 未来结果考虑, 首届中国国际进口博览会, 上海市

Abstract:

As a driving force of urban renewal and regional economic development, large-scale events can greatly promote the image and economy of the city. From the perspective of residents' perception, this study used the first China International Import Expo (CIIE) as a case to analyze the social exchange relationship. Based on the Social Exchange Theory, a relational model of "Government Trust", "Consideration of Future Consequences", "Perception of Positive Impacts", "Perception of Negative Impacts", "Quality of Life" and "Attitude towards the first CIIE" is constructed. And the structural equation model analysis was used to explore the rationality of the model construction, and to verify the influencing factors of residents' perceptions of the impacts of the first CIIE and their attitude, as well as the mediating role of quality of life between perception and attitude towards the first CIIE. The results of the study showed that: (1) Residents' trust on the government and consideration of future consequences have an important impact on residents' perception and their attitude. Residents' trust on the government has a significant positive effect on the residents' perception of positive impacts and their attitude, and a significant negative effect on the residents' perception of negative impacts. The relationship among consideration of future consequence, perception and attitude also shows this pattern. (2) Residents' perception of positive impacts has a positive effect on their perception of life quality and attitude; residents' perception of negative impacts has a significant negative effect on their attitude, but has no significant effect on their perception of life quality. (3) Quality of life does not show a significant mediating effect between residents' perception and their attitude. This paper has certain implications and reference values for the sustainable and healthy development of CIIE and the construction of Shanghai as a famous international exhibition city.

Key words: mega-event impacts, residents' perceptions and attitudes, government trust, consideration of future consequences, the first China International Import Expo, Shanghai City

卢松, 李卓妍. 城市居民对大型活动影响的感知与态度模式——以首届中国国际进口博览会为例[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(12): 3025-3042.

LU Song, LI Zhuoyan. Urban residents' perceptions and attitudes towards the impacts of mega-event: A case study of the first China International Import Expo[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(12): 3025-3042.

图/表 10

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表1

表2

2018年首届进博会居民感知和态度探索性因子分析结果

提取公因子、题项及编号		信度/因	方差贡献率(%)	提取公因子、题项及编号		信度/因子载荷	方差贡献率(%)
提取公因子、题项及编号		子载荷	方差贡献率(%)	提取公因子、题项及编号		信度/因子载荷	方差贡献率(%)
公因子1：政府信任	政府信任GT	0.901	32.336	公因子2：未来结果考虑	未来结果考虑—即时CFCI	0.733	18.106
	GT1：相信举办进口博览会是适合我国现阶段国情的一项重大决定	0.759			CFCI1：对进博会的态度取决于近期是否影响到生活	0.771
	GT2：相信没有我们监督,政府也会在进博会组织中做出正确决策	0.857			CFCI2：只关注进博会举办时带来影响,未来不做评价	0.842
	GT3：相信进博会开展中政府推出的各项政策和举措	0.856			CFCI3：近期看,办进博会未使我受益,将来的将来再说	0.804
	GT4：相信政府会关注居民对进博会的兴趣和诉求	0.847			未来结果考虑—未来CFCF	0.687	17.482
	GT4：相信政府会关注居民对进博会的兴趣和诉求	0.847			CFCF1：与举办时带来不便相比,未来带来福祉更重要	0.787
	GT5：相信政府在进博会的组织中会考虑居民的利益	0.824			CFCF1：与举办时带来不便相比,未来带来福祉更重要	0.787
	GT5：相信政府在进博会的组织中会考虑居民的利益	0.824			CFCF2：和当下比较,我认为以后进博会带给我的影响更重要	0.736
公因子3：积极影响感知	经济影响的积极感知PEcp	0.889	15.302		CFCF2：和当下比较,我认为以后进博会带给我的影响更重要	0.736
	PEcp1：带动举办地经济发展	0.768			CFCF3：我愿意承受当下进博会带来的不便,换取以后进博会更好地举办	0.761
	PEcp2：促进外商投资增加	0.781
	PEcp3：繁荣经济和贸易活动	0.744
	PEcp4：增加就业岗位	0.65		公因子4：消极影响感知	经济影响的消极感知NEcp		8.024
	PEcp5：促进举办地旅游发展	0.732			NEcp1：房地产和租金上涨	0.811
	PEcp6：增强举办地城市购物中心活力	0.677			NEcp2：物价上涨	0.789
	PEcp6：增强举办地城市购物中心活力	0.677			NEcp3：接待服务业价格上涨	0.859
	PEcp7：带动周边区域经济发展	0.63			社会文化影响的消极感知NScp	0.819	6.884
	社会文化影响的积极感知PScp	0.901	14.694		NScp1：交通更加拥挤	0.771
	PScp1：提升举办地城市国际形象	0.73			NScp2：干扰居民日常生活	0.641
	PScp2：促进举办地城市开放和包容的气质	0.678			NScp3：吸毒嫖娼赌博增加	0.75
	PScp2：促进举办地城市开放和包容的气质	0.678			NScp4：犯罪率增加	0.659
	PScp3：促进所在国的声誉与形象	0.75			环境影响的消极感知NEnp	0.631	12.853
	PScp4：促进对外开放水平	0.713			NEnp1：更多垃圾污染	0.916
	PScp5：进一步推动文化交流	0.686			NEnp2：更多噪音污染	0.859
	PScp6：促进社区自我发展能力	0.675			NEnp3：更多水体和空气污染	0.883
	PScp7：加强社区内部凝聚力	0.659			NEnp4：消耗更多能源水资源	0.898
	环境影响的积极感知PEnp	0.909	11.551	公因子5：生活质量	生活质量QOL	0.791	65.049
	PEnp1：公共交通系统改造美化	0.743			QOL1：购买进口商品更便利	0.864
	PEnp2：带动水系河流的治理	0.855			QOL2：提高居民出行便利程度	0.685
	PEnp3：提高举办地绿化水平	0.823			QOL3：提供更多游憩休闲机会	0.809
	PEnp4：有效提升举办城市卫生水平	0.814			QOL4：提高居民生活质量	0.823
	PEnp4：有效提升举办城市卫生水平	0.814			QOL5：使上海成理想居住城市	0.877
				公因子6：支持态度	支持态度Sup	0.874	80.218
					Sup1：支持进博会的举办	0.85
					Sup2：举办进博会是正确的选择	0.761
					Sup3：希望进博会一直举办下去	0.809

表2

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表3

表4

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表5

图5

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潜变量	测量变量	λ值	Cronbach's α值	C.R.值	AVE值
积极影响感知	P~Ecp P~Scp P~Enp	0.706^* 0.797^* 0.705^***	0.787	0.781	0.544
消极影响感知	N~Scp N~Enp	0.975^* 0.592^*	0.731	0.778	0.651
政府信任	GT1 GT2 GT3 GT4 GT5	0.816^* 0.821^* 0.842^* 0.759^* 0.732^***	0.901	0.900	0.632
未来结果考虑	CFC~F1 CFC~F2 CFC~F3	0.649^* 0.555^* 0.743^***	0.687	0.688	0.427
生活质量	QOL1 QOL2 QOL3 QOL4 QOL5	0.620^* 0.772^* 0.782^* 0.796^* 0.736^***	0.864	0.858	0.550
支持态度	Sup1 Sup2 Sup3	0.904^* 0.807^* 0.817^***	0.874	0.881	0.712

拟合指标	CMIN/DF	GFI	AGFI	NFI	IFI	TLI	CFI	RMSEA
判断标准	< 3	> 0.9	> 0.9	> 0.9	> 0.9	> 0.9	> 0.9	< 0.08
初始模型	4.070	0.882	0.846	0.884	0.910	0.893	0.910	0.075
修正模型	2.993	0.913	0.884	0.919	0.945	0.933	0.944	0.061

路径	标准化路径系数	C.R.值	P值	假设
支持态度<—积极影响感知	0.210	2.157	0.031	H₁支持
支持态度<—消极影响感知	-0.080	-2.002	0.045	H₂支持
积极影响感知<—政府信任	0.682	11.328	< 0.001	H₃支持
消极影响感知<—政府信任	-0.116	-1.968	0.049	H₄支持
支持态度<—政府信任	0.159	2.110	0.035	H₅支持
积极影响感知<—未来结果考虑	0.205	3.702	< 0.001	H₆支持
消极影响感知<—未来结果考虑	-0.168	-2.550	0.011	H₇支持
支持态度<—未来结果考虑	0.546	8.358	< 0.001	H₈支持
生活质量<—积极影响感知	0.696	10.264	< 0.001	H₉支持
生活质量<—消极影响感知	-0.029	-0.705	0.481	H₁₀拒绝
支持态度<—生活质量	0.004	0.072	0.942	H₁₁拒绝