地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (12): 3012-3024.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202112010

• 人口与城市研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于城市流和层级性的城市群扩展模型构建

王海军1,2(), 武悦1, 邓羽3(), 徐姗4   

  1. 1.武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,武汉 430079
    2.武汉大学地理信息系统教育部重点实验室,武汉 430079
    3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    4.中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京 100193
  • 收稿日期:2021-03-15 修回日期:2021-10-18 出版日期:2021-12-25 发布日期:2022-02-25
  • 通讯作者: 邓羽(1985-), 男, 湖北人, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事城市发展与空间管治研究。E-mail: dengy@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:王海军(1972-), 男, 陕西凤翔人, 博士, 教授, 主要从事地理模拟、国土空间规划和土地资源评价研究。E-mail: landgiswhj@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(42171411);中国科学院青年创新促进会(2019055)

Model construction of urban agglomeration expansion simulation considering urban flow and hierarchical characteristics

WANG Haijun1,2(), WU Yue1, DENG Yu3(), XU Shan4   

  1. 1. School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Systems, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
    3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    4. College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
  • Received:2021-03-15 Revised:2021-10-18 Published:2021-12-25 Online:2022-02-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171411);Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS(2019055)

摘要:

城市群是具有网络关系与层级性的区域空间,一直是中国推进城镇化与区域协调发展的主体单元。本文综合考虑城市群的网络与层级性特征,运用城市流刻画城际网络交互作用,采用分层广义线性模型(HGLM)揭示城市群分层驱动机制。同时,选取长江中游城市群开展实证研究,通过与元胞自动机(CA)耦合,构建HGLM-CA模型模拟城市群空间扩展。将模拟结果与Logistic-CA模型、BBO-CA模型进行比对,据此评析HGLM-CA模型的优劣与改进方向。实证结果表明:城市群空间扩展是多层驱动因素共同作用的结果,城市流不仅会推动城市群空间扩展,而且对元胞层因素起到重要的调节作用,使之具有城际分异性;HGLM-CA模型相比Logistic-CA模型模拟精度更高,说明顾及城市流与层级性的城市群空间扩展模拟结果更为精准;与智能模型BBO-CA相比,HGLM-CA模型模拟精度较低,但其便于从层级性角度把握城市群空间扩展机制。

关键词: 城市流, 层级性, 元胞自动机, 驱动机制, 城市群空间扩展, 长江中游城市群

Abstract:

Since the launch of China's reform and opening up policy, the process of urbanization in China has been accelerated. With the development of cities, inter-city interactions have become increasingly close, and urban agglomerations tend to be integrated. Urban agglomerations are regional spaces with network relationships and hierarchies, and have always been the main units for China to promote urbanization and coordinated regional development. In this paper, we comprehensively consider the network and hierarchical characteristics of an urban agglomeration, while using urban flow to describe the interactions of the inter-city networks and the hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) to reveal the hierarchical driving mechanism of the urban agglomeration. By coupling the HGLM with a cellular automata (CA) model, we introduce the HGLM-CA model for the simulation of the spatial expansion of an urban agglomeration, and compare the simulation results with those of the logistic-CA model and the biogeography-based optimization CA (BBO-CA) model. According to the results, we further analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed HGLM-CA model. We selected the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China as the research area to conduct this empirical research, and simulated the spatial expansion of the urban agglomeration in 2017 on the basis of urban land-use data from 2007 and 2012. The results indicate that the spatial expansion of the urban agglomeration can be attributed to various driving factors. As a driving factor at the urban level, urban flow promotes the evolution of land use in the urban agglomeration, and also plays an important role in regulating cell-level factors, therefore, the cell-level factors of different cities show different driving effects. The HGLM-CA model can obtain a higher simulation accuracy than the logistic-CA model, which indicates that the simulation results for urban agglomeration expansion considering urban flow and hierarchical characteristics are more accurate. Compared with the intelligent algorithm model, i.e., BBO-CA, the HGLM-CA model obtains a lower simulation accuracy, but it can analyze the interaction of the various driving factors from a hierarchical perspective. It also has a strong explanatory effect for the spatial expansion mechanism of urban agglomerations.

Key words: urban flow, hierarchical characteristics, cellular automata, driving mechanism, spatial expansion of urban agglomerations, urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River