流动人口居留时长意愿的空间分异及影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb202112008

地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (12): 2978-2992.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202112008

流动人口居留时长意愿的空间分异及影响因素

李亭亭¹^,²(), 朱宇³^,⁴(), 林李月¹^,³, 柯文前¹^,³, 肖宝玉¹^,³

1.湿润亚热带生态地理过程教育部重点实验室（福建师范大学）,福州 350007
2.福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州 350007
3.福建师范大学地理研究所,福州 350007
4.上海大学亚洲人口研究中心,上海 200444

收稿日期:2020-12-30 修回日期:2021-08-18 出版日期:2021-12-25 发布日期:2022-02-25
通讯作者: 朱宇(1961-), 男, 福建闽清人, 博士, 研究员, 主要从事人口迁移流动、城市化与区域发展研究。E-mail: Zhu300@fjnu.edu.cn
作者简介:李亭亭(1998-), 女, 河南驻马店人, 博士生, 主要从事人口与城乡发展研究。E-mail: ltting97@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41971180);国家自然科学基金项目(41971168);福建省省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项(2019R1002-1)

The intentions of migrants with respect to duration of residence: Spatial variation and determinants

LI Tingting¹^,²(), ZHU Yu³^,⁴(), LIN Liyue¹^,³, KE Wenqian¹^,³, XIAO Baoyu¹^,³

1. Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
2. Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
3. Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
4. Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China

Received:2020-12-30 Revised:2021-08-18 Published:2021-12-25 Online:2022-02-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971180);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971168);Public-Funded Key Project of Department of Science and Technology, Fujian(2019R1002-1)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2018年中国流动人口动态监测数据,根据流动人口愿意在流入地居留时间的长短将居留意愿划分为短期居留意愿、长期居留意愿、永久居留意愿3种类型,运用空间分析技术和分层模型对中国地级及以上城市流动人口不同类型居留意愿的空间分异及影响因素进行对比分析。研究发现：具有短期和长期居留意愿的流动人口比例合计超过60%,表明两栖和多栖生计仍是流动人口的主导生计策略;短期和永久居留意愿在空间上存在明显的“一高一低”分布差异,短期居留意愿在东部地区最高,东北地区最低,永久居留意愿则呈完全相反的分布格局;中西部地区流动人口长期居留意愿最高。模型结果显示,流入地特征和流动人口个体特征共同影响着不同类型的居留意愿：在东部和中部、经济发达以及职工平均工资高的地区,流动人口短期和长期居留意愿较高,永久居留意愿较低;男性、农业户口、受教育程度和家庭月均收入低、在外流动时间短、跨省流动的流动人口倾向于短期和长期居留;而女性、非农业户口、受教育程度和家庭月均收入高、在省内流动、在外流动时间长的流动人口更愿意在流入地永久定居。

关键词: 流动人口, 居留时长, 居留意愿, 空间分异, 影响因素, 中国

Abstract:

Using data from the national migration survey of 2018, the intentions of migrants with respect to duration of residence have been categorized into three types, namely, short-term residence, long-term residence, and permanent residence. On this basis, GIS spatial analysis and hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) have been used to examine the determinants and the spatial variation of various categories of residence intentions in 290 prefecture- and provincial-level cities of China. The results show that those with short-term and long-term residence intentions account for 60% of the total number of migrants, suggesting that bi- and multi-locational livelihood strategies are still dominant among migrants in China. It was found that there is a strong contrast between the spatial patterns for short-term residence intentions and that of permanent residence intentions. Furthermore, the short-term residence intentions are relatively high in the eastern region of the country and relatively low in the northeastern region; in contrast, the permanent residence intentions exhibit a spatial pattern completely different from that of the short-term residence intentions, and the long-term residence intentions are the highest in the central and western regions. The HLM results show that the characteristics of both the destination and the migrants at the individual level affect different categories of residence intentions. It is found that the short-term and long-term residence intentions are relatively high, and the permanent residence intentions are relatively low in the eastern and central regions, and in areas with more developed economies and high average wage levels. Moreover, for male, inter-provincial migrating, agricultural hukou status, lower educational attainments, shorter migration duration, and lower average monthly household income, are the factors conducive to short-term and long-term residence intentions; for female, intra-provincial migrating, non-agricultural hukou status, higher educational attainments, longer migration duration, and higher average monthly household income, tend to promote permanent residence intentions.

Key words: migration, residence duration, residence intention, spatial variation, determinant, China

李亭亭, 朱宇, 林李月, 柯文前, 肖宝玉. 流动人口居留时长意愿的空间分异及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(12): 2978-2992.

LI Tingting, ZHU Yu, LIN Liyue, KE Wenqian, XIAO Baoyu. The intentions of migrants with respect to duration of residence: Spatial variation and determinants[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(12): 2978-2992.

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变量名称	变量赋值	均值	标准差
因变量
是否短期居留	否=0;是=1	0.29	0.45
是否长期居留	否=0;是=1	0.34	0.47
是否永久居留	否=0;是=1	0.37	0.48
自变量
个体层面(N=88099)
性别	女=0;男=1	0.53	0.50
年龄	连续变量	37.09	10.71
户口性质	农业=0;非农业=1	0.20	0.40
受教育年限	连续变量	10.66	3.43
婚姻状况	单身=0;在婚=1	0.85	0.36
本地家庭规模	连续变量	2.56	1.27
在外流动时间	连续变量	6.27	6.25
本次流动范围	跨省流动=0;省内流动=1	0.37	0.48
本次流动原因	其他=0;经商=1	0.20	0.40
是否参与城镇职工医疗保险	否=0;是=1	0.38	0.49
就业身份
是否为雇员	否=0;是=1	0.68	0.47
是否为雇主	否=0;是=1	0.09	0.29
是否为其他	否=0;是=1	0.23	0.42
家庭月均收入对数	加1取自然对数	3.90	0.31
城市层面(N=290)
人均GDP	连续变量	6.11	3.48
全市在岗职工平均工资	连续变量	7.20	1.47
每千人拥有的医院床位数	连续变量	4.80	1.95
每千人拥有的中小学教师数量	连续变量	8.74	4.15
是否为直辖市、省会城市	其他=0;直辖市、省会城市=1	0.11	0.31
城市区位
东	否=0;是=1	0.30	0.46
中	否=0;是=1	0.28	0.45
西	否=0;是=1	0.32	0.47
东北	否=0;是=1	0.10	0.31

	模型1		模型2		模型3
	系数	标准误	系数	标准误	系数	标准误
个体层面变量
性别(女)	0.095^***	0.029	0.250^***	0.020	-0.355^***	0.038
年龄	-0.011^***	0.003	0.011^***	0.001	-0.003	0.002
户口性质(农业)	-0.198^***	0.054	-0.177^***	0.046	0.273^***	0.074
受教育年限	-0.073^***	0.007	-0.040^***	0.005	0.103^***	0.011
婚姻状况(单身)	-0.372^***	0.041	0.152^***	0.049	0.348^***	0.051
本地家庭规模	-0.279^***	0.018	0.144^***	0.011	0.063^***	0.017
在外流动时间	-0.107^***	0.004	-0.004	0.003	0.070^***	0.003
本次流动范围(跨省流动)	-0.660^***	0.046	-0.225^***	0.045	0.753^***	0.071
本次流动原因(其他)	0.119^**	0.056	0.222^***	0.037	-0.236^***	0.047
是否参与城镇职工医保(否)	-0.546^***	0.037	0.060^*	0.035	0.376^***	0.034
就业身份(其他)
雇员	0.388^***	0.053	-0.110^***	0.037	-0.200^***	0.047
雇主	-0.392^***	0.063	-0.171^***	0.040	0.330^***	0.048
家庭月均收入对数	-0.963^***	0.087	-0.413^***	0.063	1.215^***	0.100
城市层面变量
人均GDP	0.026	0.020	0.015	0.009	-0.038^**	0.019
在岗职工平均工资	0.098^**	0.044	0.087^***	0.020	-0.170^***	0.040
每千人拥有的医院床位数	-0.172^***	0.038	-0.041^*	0.022	0.173^***	0.040
每千人拥有的中小学教师数量	0.059^***	0.020	0.006	0.013	-0.054^***	0.021
是否为直辖市、省会城市	0.067	0.139	0.023	0.071	0.026	0.143
区位(东北)
东	0.359^**	0.172	0.223^*	0.117	-0.430^**	0.200
中	0.443^**	0.174	0.230^*	0.120	-0.475^**	0.201
西	0.230	0.174	0.042	0.123	-0.156	0.209

流动人口居留时长意愿的空间分异及影响因素

The intentions of migrants with respect to duration of residence: Spatial variation and determinants

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